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Real estate market collapse, no documentation loans, stated income loans, real estate market prices bottoming out over next 3-7 years, housing price adjustments
Thanks for sticking your neck out. I will look at your prediction. Others have predictions locally and nationally?
At the beginning of this year I thought we would see bottom end of 2008 or early 2009. Now, I think mid to late 2010. There is nothing wrong with being wrong. I certainly have been.
Based upon what happens in the next 12 months, this bottom prediction could get pushed back even further, maybe into 2011 or 2012. Then, I might be approaching being in agreement with Humanoid. There are worse things in life than admitting that you are wrong and that others may have been right.
If the predicters were right most of the time we would be seeing them on TV and they would be on the forbes list.As it is most are like people who go to las vegas ;none ever seem to lose when you talk to them but somehow vegas seems to be making a mint.
I think prices (median) would bottom around early/mid next year (2009) based on the premise I outlined in a thread in the R.E. forum:
Hopefully you are still around so others can point out how wrong your guess was. I wouldn't even call it a prediction because the analysis is bad on so many levels.
Hopefully you are still around so others can point out how wrong your guess was. I wouldn't even call it a prediction because the analysis is bad on so many levels.
Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong ... but at least from now til mid 2009... nobody's right or wrong
Forgive me for jumping in out of nowhere, but it isn't necessary to actually print the money anymore. They can just add digital integers electronicaly to a balance sheet and voila! More "money".
I wish they would break into my account and add a few digital zeros to my balances. EG: $50.00 with 2 digital zeros would become $5000.00! I recently read a newspaper article where this has actually happened. Sure beats investing in real estate or the stock market, or working for a living.
That would be illegal and someone would go to prison. When they do it to their balance sheets it's called "stimulating the economy"..
I guess your right - I should have just RENTED - in a crime ridden, crappy schools, drug infested neighborhood. My kids don't deserve a home. I'm so reckless in my lack of research of the RE bubble that I have failed my family financially. I should have listened to the Gods of Wisdom. How stupid and financially reckless of me.
Offended? Heck yeah!
It is in part this attitude of looking at renters like some low-class scum, and families that rent as failing their children that has lead up to this bubble. Granted it is not all of it. But clearly many people here and elsewhere just refuse to recognize renting as a valid choice given any circumstances.
This idea of looking down on renters is just foolish, you don't know the reason they decided to rent a house. I know some people that rent because it is the only way they can afford to send their kids to the school they want to send them to, while still saving up for their own retirement, and their own child's college education.
You can continue to look down on such people as low-class scum, and insulting them on the internet, and feel superior to them if that makes you feel good, but it doesn't make their choices any less valid.
It is in part this attitude of looking at renters like some low-class scum, and families that rent as failing their children that has lead up to this bubble. Granted it is not all of it. But clearly many people here and elsewhere just refuse to recognize renting as a valid choice given any circumstances.
This idea of looking down on renters is just foolish, you don't know the reason they decided to rent a house. I know some people that rent because it is the only way they can afford to send their kids to the school they want to send them to, while still saving up for their own retirement, and their own child's college education.
You can continue to look down on such people as low-class scum, and insulting them on the internet, and feel superior to them if that makes you feel good, but it doesn't make their choices any less valid.
How right you are! We have noticed that, too...renters are just the "tenants", people who can be thrown out on a whim, and who always leave the premises a mess. They are regarded as little better than "transients", just living out of suitcases.
I always like to turn the tables on so-called "homeowners" - who really owns your home? You - or the bank? How big a step up in life is it to be thrown out by foreclosure, rather than thrown out by the landlord?
It seems to me that until we are in our final resting place, anywhere we rest our heads is just a "stop along the way". Just one more way some people exhibit snobbery, I guess!
Anyone who looks down on a renter, and considers them as scum is forgetting that right now, the renters might be the financial geniuses ( some by default and others by choice )! That can be a hard pill to swallow.
One of my degrees is in International Economics. I don't look at data and use my imagination and fairy dust to come to economic conclusions and neither do the people I named. As I said, from 2003 till now they have been DEAD ON every step of the way. There are TONS of people, not just the ones I named who have been spot on. Once you understand economics, its very clear and plain to see. As I said, i feel bad for no one. The info was out there.
You know, I DON'T have a degree in economics, and I knew what was going to happen - I bought a house for $127,000 in 2001, and sold it UNDER-MARKET in 2004 for $197,000 - a quick look around at housing prices and mortgage rates told me exactly what was going to happen.
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... but at least from now til mid 2009... nobody's right or wrong 
I guess your right - I should have just RENTED - in a crime ridden, crappy schools, drug infested neighborhood. My kids don't deserve a home. I'm so reckless in my lack of research of the RE bubble that I have failed my family financially. I should have listened to the Gods of Wisdom. How stupid and financially reckless of me. 
