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Saw Harry S. Dent, Jr., when he was in town several months ago pimping his book "The Great Depression Ahead." I enjoyed his use of statistical materials, including his 'potato chip' index, etc, but he must be taken with a grain of salt.
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Saw Harry S. Dent, Jr., when he was in town several months ago pimping his book "The Great Depression Ahead." I enjoyed his use of statistical materials, including his 'potato chip' index, etc, but he must be taken with a grain of salt.
Potato chip index must be taken with a grain of salt.
They all seem to have theirr predictions. Predictions are like football score predictions; only less accurate and of course there are so many someone will be right.
Funny it reminds me about 3 or 4 years ago a website took the football predictions made by all these so-called "experts" over the course of a year at ESPN and other networks. There predictions were so bad that there isn't any reason for anyone to listen to them at all. Basically none were remotely close.
Anyone with a functioning reasoning brain knows that property prices have been way too high for decades. Here in Miami they are still double their true value based on local incomes. Once the bailout bubble pops and Obamaflation hits hard nobody will buy US bonds for less than 10% a year, short term! With the foreign borrowers gone the only thing left to do will be printing worthless Fiat money. High housing prices signal economic calamity in the future, The future is now people.
(Emphasis mine) The true value of something is what others are willing to pay for it, so I am a little suspicious about your statement about the true value of property in Miami. Are you comparing cost of housing in relation to average family income with a "true" ratio being some point in the past, such as the 1950's, for example? If so, one of the several problems with that is the fact that average housing was much more modest back then. Until I was 14 my parents, my sister, and I lived in a two-bedroom, one-bath house and that was not unusual in the 1950's; we were not poverty-stricken.
I do certainly agree that property values were artificially inflated to an insane degree by the too easy credit, and that a substantial correction was due. We may differ on to what extent that correction has been "enough". Can you tell us more about the current housing price levels in Miami as compared to the top of the bubble, etc.?
In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book.
Sounds like someone using create numbers to ride whatever public sentiment wave is going to sell books or get speaking fees.
The more I read about this guy, the more funny he gets. A year goes by and nothing, just like how right he was in 2006.
Quote:
Dent has been criticized also by many economists for being downright wrong in several of his predictions. In fact, Home Page | MAXfunds.com, a financial reporting site awarded him the The "Ultimate Charlatan" Award. They write: "The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History ...."
Quote:
"In his 2006 work, Dent predicted, “The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the NASDAQ['s] advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009 … The Great Boom['s] resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010.”"
(Emphasis mine) The true value of something is what others are willing to pay for it, so I am a little suspicious about your statement about the true value of property in Miami. Are you comparing cost of housing in relation to average family income with a "true" ratio being some point in the past, such as the 1950's, for example? If so, one of the several problems with that is the fact that average housing was much more modest back then. Until I was 14 my parents, my sister, and I lived in a two-bedroom, one-bath house and that was not unusual in the 1950's; we were not poverty-stricken.
I do certainly agree that property values were artificially inflated to an insane degree by the too easy credit, and that a substantial correction was due. We may differ on to what extent that correction has been "enough". Can you tell us more about the current housing price levels in Miami as compared to the top of the bubble, etc.?
I can tell you firsthand that I was right. Close to my parent's home a friend just purchased a home built in 1960 for 92,000.00 At the height of the boom some lane-brain bought the home for 340,000.00 and ended up in foreclosure. The house sold new in 1960 for 15,000.00 and with "official" inflation that would be 110,501.35 today. After 50 years of use it should depreciate so that price would be a top limit. With few good paying middle class jobs i doubt that middle class homes will increase in value anytime soon. Luxury homes are expensive because the dysfunctional financial system is rigged to send all the wealth of the US to the parasite class. Thank helicopter Ben for that.
In other news, an NFL fan predicts some serious losses next year. About the same thing in my book.
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True value?
