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You sound just like the people who responded to me 2 years ago when I said their homes were bull**** and their 401ks were going to become 101ks. Nothing in your post is new. We all know all these problems exist. So what?
The "so what" is "things will be better two years from now" isn't a foregone conclusion. Let's recall the many declarations of victory made in 1930, and the large-percentage rallies on the way to a 90% loss in equities and a severe bond market dislocation. The "so what" is that a number of massive imbalances exist, and despite their being "known," nobody has addressed with any credibility how they'll be worked out.
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Originally Posted by Traderx
Zerohedge, Denninger, Mish, they're all a little nuts. I'm sorry but it's true. Mish is someone I know personally. He's been preaching the end of the world for a decade.
The imbalances that caused this mess started well over a decade ago. In 1998, I came to the conclusion that the equities markets are a rigged game of, by, and for the insiders who take advantage of investors like a casino takes advantage of the gamblers therein. I have had a decidedly negative view of the markets for a good decade myself. It has served me well.
I don't think these guys hyperbolize any worse than CNBC, MSNBC, or the rest of the pumpmonkey financial media, or the investment advisors that keep the lemmings coming back for more.
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Originally Posted by Traderx
Gov't coups? Anarchy in the streets? Thats nuts. Most people are doing well.
Let's remember the history of the banking riots of 1903...bankers being hung from lampposts in NYC, requiring the US Army to put down the insurrection. And one could argue that anarchy in the streets already exists after dark in Detroit on any given day.
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Originally Posted by Traderx
Wall Street bad guys? Ha! Wall Street was picking your grandfathers pocket long before you existed.
And that makes it acceptable? One day I hope we'll recognize that trading stocks and bonds back and forth produces nothing, and the markets as they exist now only serve to provide a casino-like venue for those that do produce things to lose their savings and pensions to those who produce nothing.
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Originally Posted by Traderx
Corrupt politicians? In truth todays politicians are tame compared to how things used to be. They are all scum, but thats always been true.
The level and pervasiveness of systemic corruption today far surpasses "how things used to be." Sure, there were the Huey Longs and Richard Daleys, but today it's the rule, not the exception, that a man or woman goes to Washington and makes themselves a multi-millionaire on a $160K a year salary. And nobody in the media or the public at large bothers to make that an issue and ask how that can be.
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Originally Posted by Traderx
Btw, I'm not touting any green shoot bs. Thats all crazy talk too as far as I'm concerned. But as certain as I was in 2007 that we were going to blow up the economy, I am equally certain that the odds of things being better 2 years from now far outweigh the odds of things being worse. Notice I said better than today. I didn't say all the worlds problems would be magically solved and peace and love would exist worldwide. But another fact of human nature is emotionally stable people can only stay in the state of fear and negativity for so long. Most people simply cannot survive without hope. Given that economies are driven by psychology, not money, I'm pretty certain 2 years from now you'll agree I was right and all the problems you point out will probably still exist along with a few more we haven't created yet.
I don't see how our debt problem gets worked out in two years. You point out elsewhere that the majority of people are paying their mortgages--and people with too-big mortgages and declining property values don't have a rapid avenue to balance sheet repair...actually the relative few that tip over and go through foreclosure and/or bankruptcy stand to be in better shape faster than the preponderance of the debt slaves all across the looted plains.
Two years ago people were dismissing the looming subprime mortgage crisis on the basis that it was "only 5% of the loans." Of course that completely misses the problem, because 5% of the loans in a system leveraged 30:1 is easily enough to blow things sky-high. The number of see-through storefronts popping up everywhere portends an even worse problem developing in CRE, and we haven't even begun to address how bad the consumer debt problem is getting--credit cards, auto loans, etc.
Suffice it to say that I am in the camp that sees things getting much worse. And I am not confident that we can arrest the decline before the survival of the economy as we know it is challenged in a major way.
Last edited by Bob from down south; 07-27-2009 at 11:30 AM..
Bob, sorry the market didn't turn out well for you, but I think you're getting a little carried away with your visions of disaster.
So what is because once problems are well known they lose their effect as you will find out if you pay attention with an open mind. And once everyone believes the worst will happen then anything else is positive. My bet is actually a very easy one.
Clearly I won't change your mind which is fine. But I'm very confident that my networth will grow and in a few years and people like you and Sandy will say it's because I'm a liar and cheat for taking advantage of the opportunities that exist instead of sitting around in fear worry that things won't work out. Sorry, not everyone can get the gold prize as they say.
Bob, sorry the market didn't turn out well for you, but I think you're getting a little carried away with your visions of disaster.
The markets turned out very well for me. I got out in 1998 and have stayed clear since. I'm in my 40s and fully retired.
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Originally Posted by Traderx
So what is because once problems are well known they lose their effect as you will find out if you pay attention with an open mind. And once everyone believes the worst will happen then anything else is positive. My bet is actually a very easy one.
I believe the worst can happen. And I do not believe that our pattern of exponential growth in a finite universe can continue without a major correction, and soon. That bet is also a very easy one.
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Originally Posted by Traderx
Clearly I won't change your mind which is fine. But I'm very confident that my networth will grow and in a few years and people like you and Sandy will say it's because I'm a liar and cheat for taking advantage of the opportunities that exist instead of sitting around in fear worry that things won't work out. Sorry, not everyone can get the gold prize as they say.
Not to worry, I already have the gold prize, and have given up on the greedy impulse to put it at risk just to have more stuff I don't need. But the "opportunities" that exist to profit by exploiting the cracks and seams in a market intended to funnel capital to productive enterprise is indeed a game of lies, cheats, and thievery. As I said above, I hope that someday we can--through taxing of unproductive profits perhaps--stop the leech-like pillaging of the capital system by unproductive trading activity.
The markets turned out very well for me. I got out in 1998 and have stayed clear since. I'm in my 40s and fully retired.
I believe the worst can happen. And I do not believe that our pattern of exponential growth in a finite universe can continue without a major correction, and soon. That bet is also a very easy one.
Not to worry, I already have the gold prize, and have given up on the greedy impulse to put it at risk just to have more stuff I don't need. But the "opportunities" that exist to profit by exploiting the cracks and seams in a market intended to funnel capital to productive enterprise is indeed a game of lies, cheats, and thievery. As I said above, I hope that someday we can--through taxing of unproductive profits perhaps--stop the leech-like pillaging of the capital system by unproductive trading activity.
Sorry Bob, time to call BS on you. Nice try, well not really.
If being positive is taking swipes then so be it. I can't help that I'm the only person here sane enough to not completly rule out that the world might not blow up. But, I like it
I'm young and rich and don't want anymore money..LOL..Yeah right, I believe that.
Go away.
We're young and wealthy, and we have enough money. The concept of "enough" isn't well understood by many, especially those afflicted with consumerism and greed for greed's sake. I don't see a reason to put our state of bliss at risk by bellying-up to an insider-rigged Wall Street craps table. The mantra of "more-more-more" makes people into slaves.
I made a good income during my working life, and we lived far more frugally than our peers. While my co-workers and neighbors were spending lavishly trying to out-consume each other, I was quietly socking it away over the course of decades. As Dave Ramsey says, you "live like no one else, so that later you can live like no one else."
The fact that so many people react with disbelief tells me something about the financial sickness that permeates our society.
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