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I have more of a chance of winning the powerball than pbo has of winning the next election.
This is basically a duplicate post and it was just easier to copy and paste, so forgive me.
Exaggeration aside, you may want to look at the electoral map before you start counting your chickens. There are 251 electoral votes that have gone Democratic in every election after 1988. (Other than Vermont with its 4 electoral votes in 2000.) So Obama starts with a base of 251 of the necessary 270. That means unless he does worse than John Kerry, all he needs are 19 electoral votes because I don't see any of those 251 jumping to the GOP. (And he ain't gonna do worse than John Kerry, the world's worst campaigner.)
So all he needs is either Ohio or Florida to get reelected, both of which he carried in 2008. And he doesn't need to win both, just one. If he wins either of those two, he doesn't need a single other state.
Or if he loses both, some combination of these states to will get him to 19: Nevada (5), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Indiana (11), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) or Iowa (7). So even if he loses both Ohio and Florida, he just needs to win 2 (or 3) of those 7 states that he carried in 2008.
I'll concede Indiana. But I don't see a mass defection of those other states. Virginia and North Carolina are becoming more Democratic, not less. Hispanics in New Mexico and Colorado aren't voting GOP in 2012. Iowa is always close. Nevada is always close. Even if he loses both Ohio and Florida, he just needs either Virginia or North Carolina and one other state.
2012 is a long way off. As has been noted numerous times here, his approval is sitting right about where Reagan and Clinton were at this point in their presidency, and both won re-election.
This is basically a duplicate post and it was just easier to copy and paste, so forgive me.
Exaggeration aside, you may want to look at the electoral map before you start counting your chickens. There are 251 electoral votes that have gone Democratic in every election after 1988. (Other than Vermont with its 4 electoral votes in 2000.) So Obama starts with a base of 251 of the necessary 270. That means unless he does worse than John Kerry, all he needs are 19 electoral votes because I don't see any of those 251 jumping to the GOP. (And he ain't gonna do worse than John Kerry, the world's worst campaigner.)
So all he needs is either Ohio or Florida to get reelected, both of which he carried in 2008. And he doesn't need to win both, just one. If he wins either of those two, he doesn't need a single other state.
Or if he loses both, some combination of these states to will get him to 19: Nevada (5), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Indiana (11), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) or Iowa (7). So even if he loses both Ohio and Florida, he just needs to win 2 (or 3) of those 7 states that he carried in 2008.
I'll concede Indiana. But I don't see a mass defection of those other states. Virginia and North Carolina are becoming more Democratic, not less. Hispanics in New Mexico and Colorado aren't voting GOP in 2012. Iowa is always close. Nevada is always close. Even if he loses both Ohio and Florida, he just needs either Virginia or North Carolina and one other state.
2012 is a long way off. As has been noted numerous times here, his approval is sitting right about where Reagan and Clinton were at this point in their presidency, and both won re-election.
I've been saying it all along and I'll say it again. I'm sure Obama is easily going to beat the Republican candidate in 2012. Just like Obama has said lately. The Republicans are hoping the voters have amnesia and they've forgotten about how Bush and the Republican congress totally screwed up the country.
If Sarah Palin wins in 2012 I'm moving my a** to China.
I hope the Republicans make Ron Paul their candidate for 2012. He is a much more moderate Republican with Libertarian leanings. Like Obama, he opposed the Iraq war. Ron Paul favors smaller government, much smaller in fact, like eliminating the IRS and Federal Reserve. That way people aren't slaves to the government and we can do away with the flawed fractional reserve system, a system of inherent debt. The Republicans are really out of tune with the American people right now, just like the Democrats were in 2004. For example, the majority of people want our troops out of the Middle East, but Republicans support continuing combat operations. Sarah Palin is not the answer for Republicans. The American people are not ready for a female President yet.
I hope the Republicans make Ron Paul their candidate for 2012. He is a much more moderate Republican with Libertarian leanings.
Well, as a Democrat, so do I! I don't think anyone outside of the far right thinks he is a moderate and he's shown he cannot handle much press scrutiny. Also, first things first -- he hasn't even won in Kentucky yet.
Throwing him up against Obama would be like me going a few rounds with Joe Frazier in his prime.
I hope the Republicans make Ron Paul their candidate for 2012. He is a much more moderate Republican with Libertarian leanings. Like Obama, he opposed the Iraq war. Ron Paul favors smaller government, much smaller in fact, like eliminating the IRS and Federal Reserve. That way people aren't slaves to the government and we can do away with the flawed fractional reserve system, a system of inherent debt. The Republicans are really out of tune with the American people right now, just like the Democrats were in 2004. For example, the majority of people want our troops out of the Middle East, but Republicans support continuing combat operations. Sarah Palin is not the answer for Republicans. The American people are not ready for a female President yet.
Are you joking? Ron Paul has about as much chance of being the GOP nominee as you or I do. Take a look at what happened in 2008...the Republican establishment doesn't want Paul..
And the American public IS ready for a female president. Hillary would have been elected a couple years ago had she won the nomination.
I hope the Republicans make Ron Paul their candidate for 2012. He is a much more moderate Republican with Libertarian leanings. Like Obama, he opposed the Iraq war. Ron Paul favors smaller government, much smaller in fact, like eliminating the IRS and Federal Reserve. That way people aren't slaves to the government and we can do away with the flawed fractional reserve system, a system of inherent debt. The Republicans are really out of tune with the American people right now, just like the Democrats were in 2004. For example, the majority of people want our troops out of the Middle East, but Republicans support continuing combat operations. Sarah Palin is not the answer for Republicans. The American people are not ready for a female President yet.
What do you really know about Ron Paul except his stand on the Iraq war which, most likely isn't going to be much of an issue in 2012? Ron will be 77 years old in 2012. That in itself will keep him from even running, certainly he could never get the nomination.
How are the Republicans out of tune? You seem to want to see the end of dept like IRS and Federal reserve, do you think the Democrats share your ideas? You are talking out of both sides of your mouth..
Well, as a Democrat, so do I! I don't think anyone outside of the far right thinks he is a moderate and he's shown he cannot handle much press scrutiny. Also, first things first -- he hasn't even won in Kentucky yet.
Throwing him up against Obama would be like me going a few rounds with Joe Frazier in his prime.
Ron Paul, meet Rand Paul: 2 different people: 2 different states, one common family..
Are you joking? Ron Paul has about as much chance of being the GOP nominee as you or I do. Take a look at what happened in 2008...the Republican establishment doesn't want Paul..
And the American public IS ready for a female president. Hillary would have been elected a couple years ago had she won the nomination.
Rarely agree with you, but I do this time. Yes, if Hillary had gotten the nod I feel sure she would have won.
Ron Paul, meet Rand Paul: 2 different people: 2 different states, one common family..
Nita
Ah, my bad. I've been so focused on Rand in other threads that I just didn't read it right.
Ron obviously has a better shot at the nomination. My basic feeling is the same, however; he doesn't stand much chance of winning against Obama. I can't think of many states he would take from Obama. Certainly Indiana, and maybe Florida. But that still leaves him way short in the electoral college. Like 7 states short.
I think the GOP learns from their mistakes in the midterm elections where they nominated several of these libertarian types who most likely will be beaten. Now, if his son wins (and I think he will) and the tea party candidate in Colorado and Nevada both win, then that helps Ron. But Ron is a long shot, even to win his own party nomination. And if the tea party candidates lose more than they win in the midterm elections, I think the more moderate Republicans take back control.
Some of you have forgotten the fact that the Democrats were primarily responsible for the subprime meltdown; although they were warned that their insistence on lowering underwriting standards would turn out to be disastrous as far back as 2004.
Obama, Barney Frank & Chris Dodd never acted to stop the carnage from happening, nor to prevent it when they had the chance, which is very disgusting for a party which is allegedly supposed to be enhancing life and the probability of 'helping the little guy' become successful & prosperous.
Furthermore, the 'Micromanager In Chief' appears to be hell-bent on destroying the Detroit Three with those new indefensibly asinine CAFE standards which will lead to soaring prices for new cars, as well as the undeniable fact that the practice of outsourcing is boound to accelerate thanks to Obama, Reid, Pelosi, their trial lawyers, their environmentalists & their legions of lefties who've done a masterful job of killing jobs and accelerating the destruction of the middle class in this country.
Exactly right.
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