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Voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic Brooklyn-Queens district have responded well to Turner despite his sin of being a Republican.
With no name recognition and little money, he scored an astounding 40% of the vote against the well-known Weiner last year. And the polls now put Turner within easy striking distance of Democratic rival David Weprin.
Last poll I saw the dems was up by 4 - positively unheard of in this heavily democrat district.
This is too delicious to think about.
Of course, Turner is making it all about obama and Weprin is running fast and hard away from obama.
Weprin's support for gay marriage will kill him in this race
No it wont. Much like Obama, Werpin is going to lose the Brooklyn portion of the district, but win Queens (minus Howard Beach). Queens portion outvotes the Brooklyn portion, Werpin wins.
and Weprin would have won big in Flatbush if it wasn't for his gay marriage vote (look up how much money Weprin gave to COJO of Flatbush and many other orthodox organizations) in addition they would have wanted there to have been an orthodox jew in congress
first rule before speaking is to have a basic clue what you're talking about
and Weprin would have won big in Flatbush if it wasn't for his gay marriage vote (look up how much money Weprin gave to COJO of Flatbush and many other orthodox organizations) in addition they would have wanted there to have been an orthodox jew in congress
first rule before speaking is to have a basic clue what you're talking about
Very little of the Orthodox portions of Flatbush are even in the district (most are in the 11th). When it comes down to it the non-Orthodox Jewish vote is going to go heavily for Werpin (Forest Hills) and its going to be difficult for Turner to make that up. Its not going to be a blow out, but its going to be tough for Turner to win.
Regardless, the district isn't going to last. Two districts will be removed with redistricting (one upstate, one downstate) and this will obviously be the district eliminated downstate with redistricting.
Very little of the Orthodox portions of Flatbush are even in the district (most are in the 11th).
there are more then 50 EDs in this district in Flatbush (Kensington to Gravesend to Marine park)
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When it comes down to it the non-Orthodox Jewish vote is going to go heavily for Werpin (Forest Hills)
want to make a bet on the bucharian community or the Georgian community or the russian community or the orthodox communities in FH
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Regardless, the district isn't going to last. Two districts will be removed with redistricting (one upstate, one downstate) and this will obviously be the district eliminated downstate with redistricting.
you do realize that this district is made not to help conservatives but to help the liberals (who I believe officially aren't anti orthodox) gerrymander the most orthodox Jewish area outside of Israel in to 5 plus a very tiny bit of a 6th Congressional districts. You may just make a more Conservative District in Brooklyn if you don't ignore the voting rights act
there are more then 50 EDs in this district in Flatbush (Kensington to Gravesend to Marine park)
want to make a bet on the bucharian community or the Georgian community or the russian community or the orthodox communities in FH
you do realize that this district is made not to help conservatives but to help the liberals (who I believe officially aren't anti orthodox) gerrymander the most orthodox Jewish area outside of Israel in to 5 plus a very tiny bit of a 6th Congressional districts. You may just make a more Conservative District in Brooklyn if you don't ignore the voting rights act
1. Its a stretch to call all of those areas, Flatbush and they aren't just Orthodox areas. Regardless, I do agree Turner will win those areas for the most part and win the Brooklyn portion of the district much like McCain did.
2. All of those went for Obama, despite many of the other Orthodox areas going for McCain. Werpin will win Forest Hills hands down.
3. The NY Congressional map, including the city portion was a compromise map from the NY State Assembly (Dem majority), NY State Senate (GOP majority) and the at the time Republican Governor. Anyway none of that changes the fact that the district will be eliminated with redistricting.
1. Its a stretch to call all of those areas, Flatbush and they aren't just Orthodox areas. Regardless, I do agree Turner will win those areas for the most part and win the Brooklyn portion of the district much like McCain did.
and if it wasn't for the marriage vote he would have lost these areas big
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2. All of those went for Obama, despite many of the other Orthodox areas going for McCain. Werpin will win Forest Hills hands down.
1. Mccain won a few of the more orthodox EDs in FH
2. the Asian vote will most likely be less in a special election
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3. The NY Congressional map, including the city portion was a compromise map from the NY State Assembly (Dem majority), NY State Senate (GOP majority) and the at the time Republican Governor. Anyway none of that changes the fact that the district will be eliminated with redistricting.
The Republicans are idiots (look what they did to arguably the most Borough Park (divided it into 5 State Senate districts) arguably the most Conservative (though for reasons that certain RINOs disagree with so they rather these seats go to the democrats then get a Hikind like Republican) area in the country)
and if it wasn't for the marriage vote he would have lost these areas big
1. Mccain won a few of the more orthodox EDs in FH
2. the Asian vote will most likely be less in a special election
The Republicans are idiots (look what they did to arguably the most Borough Park (divided it into 5 State Senate districts) arguably the most Conservative (though for reasons that certain RINOs disagree with so they rather these seats go to the democrats then get a Hikind like Republican) area in the country)
1. Point being, that you can still get crushed with the Orthodox vote and win the district, as Obama did.
2. Which precincts were those?? Looking at a precinct map, (Dave's redistricting site), it looks like Obama won every single precinct in FH, a handful were close, but Obama was in the 60's in most precincts well into the 70's + range in others. Overall looks like he won FH by a good 30-35 points. McCain did win a couple of the Orthodox areas in Kew Gardens.
3. I haven't seen any evidence to suggest the Asian vote will be any less in a special election.
Now the district is clearly the most friendly to the GOP in the city delegation, outside of the mostly Staten Island district, in part due to the Orthodox vote and the Howard Beach vote, but liberals in portions of Queens, especially Forest Hills makes this a tough pickup for the GOP. It can be a pretty close race as the floor for the GOP is quite high when they get the Orthodox vote, but the ceiling isn't that high either.
Republicans are accusing Democratic congressional hopeful David Weprin of sending spies to “volunteer” for rival Bob Turner’s campaign as a new GOP poll found Turner has pulled even in the race for Anthony Weiner’s House seat.
Turner campaign spokesman William O’Reilly charged that Assemblyman Weprin “is sending young people into Turner campaign headquarters pretending to be volunteers or college reporters. We have caught four of them already.”
Oh, obama is underwater in this heavily democrat district - 55% disapprove of his job performance.
Turner is smart to make it about obama.
This special election just might be the bell weather.
The president's approval was already upside down in the district at the beginning of August, and according to additional numbers from the McLaughlin survey obtained by Hotline On Call, it's gotten even worse. Now, 55 percent of those polled disapprove of Obama, with 37 percent of those strongly disapproving. Only 40 percent approve of his job performance in a solidly-Democratic district in Queens and Brooklyn that gave Al Gore 67 percent of the vote in 2000. (The numbers are broadly consistent with a non-partisan Siena poll conducted last month.)
Yikes!! In NY? In an at least 3-1 dem district.
Wow.
What a sweet, sweet pick up this would be.
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