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I think you're right. As long as the other neo-cons are there, Perry, Bachmann, Cain, and the others are gonna siphon votes off each other. As it stands now, the race is between Romney vs Paul. I hope Palin jumps in, because she'll steal Rick Perry's votes easily, but not Paul's. People who support Paul are most likely to not switch over to anyone else, and Paul has cross-over appeal to Romney voters
The activist core of the Republican party may seem to be the Tea Party, but the Christian conservatives (who may also be self-identified Tea Party adherents) still wield enormous influence.
Ron Pauls anti-abortion views attract the Christian conservatives, but his Libertarian views repulse them. I also don't see 40% of the Republican party supporting him - he's never pulled those numbers in the past and I haven't seen any polling to indicate 40% support (If I'm wrong about the 40%, please post the link).
Perry is a neo-con cloaked in Christian conservatism. Romney is a plutocrat cloaked in neo-conservatism. They're not pulling votes from each other.
Bachman IS the Christian conservative. Perry pulls votes from her base.
The others are not close enough to merit consideration.
Did I mention that the Christian conservatives won't nominate a Mormon? Scratch Romney and Huntsman.
It's still too close to call, but my hunch is Perry, unless he really screws up.
What states do you see Ron Paul winning? Which states did he win the last time? The real question is when he drops out of the race, where will his votes go? I have no idea. Where did his voters go in 2008?
His support is growing and for a very good reason.
Check the National polls. Paul is mired in 3rd or 4th place, just as he was 4 years ago....as he was 4 months ago...as he was 4 weeks ago....and 4 minutes ago. To deny the truth and facts...is to be lost from reality.
So, this time if he gains into the 20% catagory, like A GUY WHO WAS 'HOTTER' THAN PAUL EVER HAS BEEN, Ross Perot, in 1992....he still winds up like Perot, a loser....by a landslide. And like Paul....Perot was considered 'wacky'...by most voters.
And like Paul....Perot was considered 'wacky'...by most voters.[/b]
Ron Paul is a free trader of the Austrian School of thinking. Nothing at all like Ross Perot. Will he split the Republican Party Vote and guarantee a reelection
of Obama as a result - maybe. But, the difference is voters now have more access to info via Internet. Paul's not going to drop out, and Paul supporters will vote for Paul no matter what. And we have two, three wars, and a deficit not anyone, even in the '90's could foresee or comprehend - EXCEPT PAUL.
You keep throwing that word "wacky" out there, but still are a supporter
of Palin. I'm beginning to think, your really an Obama supporter player,..
What states do you see Ron Paul winning? Which states did he win the last time? The real question is when he drops out of the race, where will his votes go? I have no idea. Where did his voters go in 2008?
California, Texas, and New York, will all go Ron Paul.
Look at the CA straw poll!
Almost just like my % predictions.
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