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A new poll (standing by for quality guy and the other establishment types on this forum to discredit it) has Ron Paul at 24%. That's a 6 point lead over the next closest candidate-Mitt Romney. Two polls now show Ron Paul in the lead in Iowa. Tell me again, how is he "unelectable?" Anti-Paul hystericals on this forum and in the media discredit themselves more and more everyday that they try to continue to spin Dr. Paul as "unelectable." Go ahead, keep trying to spin these polls.
Source- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc...ge_IA_1218.pdf
For me, I will react the same way I did when Huckabee won the Iowa Caucus - great ground game and nice win. But in the scheme of things, Paul cannot win a closed primary like South Carolina. It's just a fact. Paul needs the independent / libertarian vote to win.
A fact? You mean like the previous "facts" we've heard? Ron Paul "can't win anything," that was a "fact." Ron Paul has a "10%" ceiling, that was a "fact" as well. It's admirable that you stick by your guns despite being so obviously wrong. There are no "facts" about what Ron can or can't do because all the previous "facts" have been blown up. You don't know if Ron can win South Carolina or not because not a single vote has been cast yet and you've been so thoroughly wrong before.
Gingrich is still in the lead big in those states which would give him 75 delegates.
If Paul were to win Iowa, he would have 28 delegates.
If Romney were to win NH, he would have 12 delegates...so frankly, Paul should spend more time in SC and FL than in NH to capture those big number delegates.
They need 1444 to win and to have Paul take FL and SC plus Iowa would be a NICE fat lead.
Romney gets ZERO of the independent vote. Even Newt gets a very little bit.
Paul gets the most.
Romney gets zero of the independent vote among all candidates now, but he would get a lot more if he were to be placed against Obama.
There's also a bit of a small problem that Ron Paul has never had to deal with due mainly to the fact that nobody's ever taken him that seriously. But there is that old newsletter of his...and it's not something that's easy to defend.
As stated, the real push needs to go to SC and FL after Iowa. We've done what we can in IA so we need to concentrate on SC and FL.
Not a lot of time...need to make a push.
Push hard in Iowa!
But man ... I'm in Illinois and I've gotta wait clear till March. That means the clear leaders will probably already be established.
It puts me into the role of potentially being a sheep whether I want to be or not. HOPEFULLY, it's a two horse race between Paul and Romney at that point. But it's hard to underestimate the establishment's ability to blackball Ron Paul.
Warms my heart to see Gingrich plummeting nationwide!
Significant uptick in the polls for everyone but Huntsman and Santorum, with Bachmann being the biggest mover lately. Will she be the next, "anyone but Paul and Romney" fad?
Paul's numbers are improving, still weak in other states. Solution is simple: Win Iowa and hopefully that gets people to take Ron Paul more seriously.
Gingrich is still in the lead big in those states which would give him 75 delegates.
If Paul were to win Iowa, he would have 28 delegates.
If Romney were to win NH, he would have 12 delegates...so frankly, Paul should spend more time in SC and FL than in NH to capture those big number delegates.
They need 1444 to win and to have Paul take FL and SC plus Iowa would be a NICE fat lead.
South Carolina? Yes. Florida? No. Florida's too big and too expensive to campaign extensively in this early. We must push hard and go all out in Iowa like we are doing. We are modeling this campaign after the Obamachine from 2008: a highly dedicated boots on the ground army that can crank out caucus after caucus victory. Big primary states will be harder because people with fleeting commitments can go easily vote for "meh" candidates like Gingrich and Romney.
However to even really compete in places like South Carolina and Florida we must first shatter the illusion that Ron Paul can't win. Winning Iowa will go a long, long way into altering that perception. We are in pretty good position in New Hampshire, a big win in Iowa should help us make up some ground there. A strong win in Iowa and a really strong second place finish in New Hampshire give a lot of great momentum and help us shed some of the bottom tier candidates like Bachmann, Santorum, and Huntsman. Depending how bad he does in Iowa Rick Perry may go away, but I think he's in it until at least Florida. It's hard to say how long Gingrich will be around because he's in the middle of a free fall so he could hang around until Super Tuesday, or he could be gone after South Carolina.
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