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The last few polls by Rasmussen, WSJ and PPP show Obama pulling ahead of Romney. Rasmussen is particularly interesting because of that poll's strong Republican bias.
basically meaningless Romney is in an intense primary battle with debates virtually every week.......Obama gets to float around , unchallenged with the benefit of free positive press from the msm.
People always say Rasmussen has a "strong Republican bias," but Rasmussen and PPP predicted the 2008 election better than any of the others.
Anyway, I think Obama received a boost because of Newt's attacks on Romney and, in the Rasmussen poll (it was conducted from Thursday through yesterday), because of his State of the Union address. Remember also that Obama has recently started campaigning and Romney hasn't started his general election campaign yet.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 01-28-2012 at 03:00 PM..
People always say Rasmussen has a "strong Republican bias," but Rasmussen and PPP predicted the 2008 election better than any of the others.
Anyway, I think Obama received a boost because of Newt's attacks on Romney and, in the Rasmussen poll (it was conducted from Thursday through yesterday), because of his State of the Union address. Remember also that Obama has recently started campaigning and Romney hasn't started his general election campaign yet.
Actually Survey USA predicted 2008 the best. Rasmussen was one of the worse with an average error of nearly 3 points in the BG states according to the WSJ. Rasmussen had McCain winning in Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina.
As to your second point I have to disagree. All throughout the primary Republicans have been piling on Obama and he has not really had any chance to respond. The only time we have heard from him recently was the State of the Union. Furthermore I think any attacks Newt can do, in part because of his limited resources and in part because the party elders will remonstrate him if he goes to far, will be very weak in comparison to what Obama can do with his massive amount of money and support. I think people are realizing Romney is the John Kerry of 2012.
Actually Survey USA predicted 2008 the best. Rasmussen was one of the worse with an average error of nearly 3 points in the BG states according to the WSJ.
Actually, Pew Research Center was the other most accurate, NOT PPP - according to this list. It doesn't appear that SUSA was ranked (nor does it appear that PPP was ranked).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent
As to your second point I have to disagree. All throughout the primary Republicans have been piling on Obama and he has not really had any chance to respond. Furthermore I think any attacks Newt can do, in part because of his limited resources and in part because the party elders will remonstrate him if he goes to far, will be very weak in comparison to what Obama can do.
Newt has already gone pretty far with his attacks on Bain. Newt seems to only care about Newt, not about the party.
I agree that Obama can do a lot more than Newt, but Romney can also run attack ads against Obama. Yes, Obama has a lot more campaign funds than Romney, but Romney has more of his own money to use and his campaign will likely raise a lot more money (though likely not as much as the Obama campaign has/will have) once it's certain that he'll be the nominee. More importantly is what the Super PACs can do. Everything I've read seems to indicate the general consensus is that the Super PACs will benefit Romney more than Obama.
I think the main reason actually for Obama's boost is the lower unemployment rate.
I think people are realizing Romney is the John Kerry of 2012.
I agree that Romney is in many ways the Kerry of 2012. It's important to remember, however, that Kerry absolutely had a chance in the election in 2004. Bush didn't win by a landslide by any means.
Remember, at this point in 2004, Bush's approval rating was higher than Obama's is at this point in 2012 (though we obviously don't know what his approval rating will be several months from now).
Also, the economy was doing much better in 2004 than it is now. Even though it was partially because of a bubble, people didn't realize it at the time.
Also, many people voted for Bush only because they thought he was the "safer choice" when it came to defense, even if they didn't like that we had gone into Iraq.
Obama is a shoe-in unless something drastically changes between now and election day. People aren't happy with Obama and the economy isn't getting better, but its stabilized and people just don't like the current choices they have for a Republican alternative. Obama has young people, gays, Lationos, and African Americans locked in. The only way he can lose is if working-class middle aged people overwhelmingly support the Republican alternative. If there is a drastic deterioration of economic conditions between now and election day, things could change fast. Here is my prediction as to how this will play out.
Bchris, I don't think there's really any chance that Obama will win Georgia, Arizona, or Kentucky or any electoral votes in Nebraska and I think it's very unlikely that he'll win Missouri.
I've played around with the map on 270towin.com myself (that's the site you used, right?). It's definitely fun to come up with different possible outcomes - isn't it?
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 01-28-2012 at 03:56 PM..
Actually, Pew Research Center was the other most accurate, NOT PPP - according to this list. It doesn't appear that SUSA was ranked (nor does it appear that PPP was ranked).
Ah that, that basically took the last poll released. The reason SUSA and PPP were not ranked way because that study only looked at one poll in a very short time period. You will also note that that does not rank RCP predictions, though not technically a poll but rather a basket of polls, likely for that reason that it could not fit with there method. Basically Rasmussen got lucky in one November poll and that is what they are basing all Rasmussen poll's accuracy off of as opposed to how Rasmussen polls performed overall which is what WSJ did.
Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok
Newt has already gone pretty far with his attacks on Bain. Newt seems to only care about Newt, not about the party.
I agree that Obama can do a lot more than Newt, but Romney can also run attack ads against Obama. Yes, Obama has a lot more campaign funds than Romney, but Romney has more of his own money to use and his campaign will likely raise a lot more money (though likely not as much as the Obama campaign has/will have) once it's certain that he'll be the nominee. More importantly is what the Super PACs can do. Everything I've read seems to indicate the general consensus is that the Super PACs will benefit Romney more than Obama.
I think the main reason actually for Obama's boost is the lower unemployment rate.
Newt was forced to pull ads by Rubio in Florida. Bain was seen as fair game the Romney is anti-immigrant wasn't Obama will not have those restrictions. Furthermore Romney is running lots of attack ads against Newt and because Newt doesn't have money. If Romney tries attack ads against Obama, Obama's hundreds of millions if not a billion in hard money, plus the DNC will hit him back and hard in a way Newt cannot.
I think higher employment will be helpful, but I think the main reason for Obama will probably be that Romney is just that bad as a candidate coupled with the fact that evangelical conservatives who are the bulk of the GOP base will be highly unmotivated this year.
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