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Due to his father and brother serving as President before him, Job Bush would probably bring an impressive campaign infrastructure already established to a 2016 run.
The importance of this for GOP candidates is shown by history -- recent GOP nominees have mostly been candidates who previously ran and did well, finishing second in the nomination race. They then ran again the next time the nomination was open, building on their previous experience and re-establishing their nascent campaign infrastructures originally constructed during their first run for the nomination.
Romney, McCain, Dole, GHW Bush, Reagan -- all had run for President 'the last time', but failed to get the nomination (coming in second). They all ran again, and got the nomination.
The only exception to this rule in the past 40 years? A guy who sought the nomination without having previously run, but with a relative who had served as President, whose political connections he could mine for support.
A guy named 'Bush'.
It is for this reason that I see the 2016 Republican nomination shaping up as a battle between Rick "I finished second last time!" Santorum and Jeb "My Dad was President! (so was my brother, but I'd prefer that we all just forget about that little debacle)" Bush.
My dream ticket is Andrew Cuomo/Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean/Hillary, or Andrew Cuomo/Russ Feingold.
If Jeb, Jindal, or Marco Rubio are the GOP nominees, they will lose. Chris Christie is the only Republican that can win in 2016.
That ticket is unlikely to happen.
Were it to happen, one of the two would have to channel Dick Cheney and establish a residency somewhere outside of New York by Election Day 2016, or New York Electors would be prevented by the Constitution for voting for both of them (though each New York Elector could vote for either one, just not the other).
i think in 2016 we will see a female president. im thinking hillary for sure on the left, if the right wants to move for the moderates they would nominate rice.
i think in 2016 we will see a female president. im thinking hillary for sure on the left, if the right wants to move for the moderates they would nominate rice.
Condoleeza Rice has never shown any interest in elective office.
Although it would certainly be interesting watching a pro-choice woman who has never been elected to anything try to win the GOP nomination. Even were she interested, she is probably aware that those things alone are probably insurmountable impendiments (among other things politically problematic about Rice).
Due to his father and brother serving as President before him, Job Bush would probably bring an impressive campaign infrastructure already established to a 2016 run.
The importance of this for GOP candidates is shown by history -- recent GOP nominees have mostly been candidates who previously ran and did well, finishing second in the nomination race. They then ran again the next time the nomination was open, building on their previous experience and re-establishing their nascent campaign infrastructures originally constructed during their first run for the nomination.
Romney, McCain, Dole, GHW Bush, Reagan -- all had run for President 'the last time', but failed to get the nomination (coming in second). They all ran again, and got the nomination.
The only exception to this rule in the past 40 years? A guy who sought the nomination without having previously run, but with a relative who had served as President, whose political connections he could mine for support.
A guy named 'Bush'.
It is for this reason that I see the 2016 Republican nomination shaping up as a battle between Rick "I finished second last time!" Santorum and Jeb "My Dad was President! (so was my brother, but I'd prefer that we all just forget about that little debacle)" Bush.
I was surprised at how the fact that he ran such a strong second this time, considering what a shoe-strings campaign he had. Far more impressive that Romney's first try in 2008, when he spent $42 million of his own fortune in losing to McCain.
And if the GOP decides that, "By golly, the only problem in 2008 and 2012 is that we just weren't conservative enough!", Santorum could be nicely position to ride that wave to the nomination.
I was surprised at how the fact that he ran such a strong second this time, considering what a shoe-strings campaign he had. Far more impressive that Romney's first try in 2008, when he spent $42 million of his own fortune in losing to McCain.
And if the GOP decides that, "By golly, the only problem in 2008 and 2012 is that we just weren't conservative enough!", Santorum could be nicely position to ride that wave to the nomination.
And defeat in the general election if he gets a nomination. If America repudiated Mitt Romney in 2012 with a coalition of women, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians there is no way that four years from now that Rick Santorum has rat's *ss chance of winning a national election in 2016.
And defeat in the general election if he gets a nomination. If America repudiated Mitt Romney in 2012 with a coalition of women, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians there is no way that four years from now that Rick Santorum has rat's *ss chance of winning a national election in 2016.
That is my gut reaction as well.
That said, every election consists of a comparison between the candidates, and the national setting. With that in mind, I'd rather not have Rick Santorum come as close to the Presidency as winning the Republican nomination -- history is too full of people who had "no chance in the general election" setting up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
But just speaking of the nomination itself, I think Santorum at this point in time is a good bet to win.
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