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I think the OP would have been better staying that the GOP can't win the 270 votes with a conservative including Rand Paul (up until his campaign launch, I felt he could have been voted by standing his ground on the issues but he compromised himself traditional conservatism.)
You know though, if the GOP runs someone decent, who manages to get within 1-2% of HRC, yes, the blue wall will still prevail, but it could create a situation where the Senates stays stagnant, the house gains a few (less than 5) GOP seats, but a large increase in state positions for the GOP. The stronger the blue wall the stronger the backlash in 2018.
The Dems haven't won 3 consecutive Presidential elections since World War II. It's silly to make these kinds of predictions just as you might think it silly for me to say that the Repubblicans have more elected officials than at any time since 1928 and control the House, senate, most State governors, most Stae Legislatures and are 1 good Presidential candidate from making the Dems completely irrelevant in 2016.
The demographics of the cities and states with the most electoral votes just doesn't add up for it to happen. Not any time soon anyways. Lol
I think you're wrong about which states are swing states. The political pendulum is swinging the opposite direction right now. Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Hampshire and Oregon could all go Republican in 2016. It's foolish to take anything for granted. California voted Republican 6 times in a row from 1968 to 1988.
To win, the GOP needs to change things up. Being the party of older white rich Americans is self-defeating. Coming across as anti-Black and anti-Hispanic is self-defeating. Considering the obvious success at running a novelty candidate like Obama, you'd be stupid to run a white male candidate this time around as well. It shouldn't matter, but the novelty of voting for a black guy for POTUS was the single biggest secret of Obama's success. Moving the needle 2-3% in a swing state and you win that swing state. The novelty of Obama did exactly that. The novelty of Hillary potentially being the first ever woman president would have the same effect.
I don't know if I care which idiot party wins. I'd rather see both lose to be honest. But I also love irony. It would be brilliant if the GOP could convince Condoleezza Rice to run. It would be pretty funny to see the GOP one-up the novelty factor on the Dems.
A Democrat would only need to win one or two swing states and carry all the normal Blue states to hit 270.
Good luck getting the majority of Latinos to vote for a wealthy white woman, especially if she is running against someone with a last name like Rubio or Cruz.
Good luck getting the majority of Latinos to vote for a wealthy white woman, especially if she is running against someone with a last name like Rubio or Cruz.
I'm kind of thinking that too. They will have to make the case that their policies will be best for the Latino community...but at least they and Jeb can make that case in Español.
The Republican candidates mostly are battling for name recognition and to gain experience and backers for their runs in 2020/2024. Jeb Bush is in it to win it. He will, without doubt, be the nominee and will be finished politically after Nov 2016.
Good luck getting the majority of Latinos to vote for a wealthy white woman, especially if she is running against someone with a last name like Rubio or Cruz.
Republicans are losing Hispanic vote share in presidential elections not gaining it. From 45 percent in 2004 to 27 percent in 2012.
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