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Will any GOP candidate drop out of the race after the first national poll following the next debate on Sept 16? If the pundits are saying it's too early for the polls to be meaningful, why would they drop out?
I'd ask about the Dems, too, but their first debate isn't until October 13 and you might change your mind if Biden, for example, gets in before then.
Boy, I would hate to have to quit so early. I realize that there are people out there 24/7 looking for "dirt" on the candidates or anything that might discredit them and then we have those making stuff up.
It is too bad that "money" has to be in play to dictate who can go forward as that just seems wrong.
Perry might be one that gets out of the race first, but I am thinking Jindal and Santorum won't be far behind. No one will drop in the next month or so. I think Huckabee will be in for quite awhile, so will Paul. Both will be gone before we the full primary season gets started.
Article out yesterday that Bush is paying the bills for certain candidates like Perry to keep them in long enough to keep the vote split until the appropriate time.
It's a good question because it will help answer another question, namely why are so many running this time? If they are running with the idea of actually winning, and polling only 1-3%, they would probably drop out pretty quickly. My theory is that some of them are running just to build name ID. Then they can monetize that (speaking gigs, etc) or otherwise benefit from their new higher profile. If so, they would want to stay in as long as possible in order to accomplish their purpose of building name-ID.
My guess is that a bare bones campaign can be run pretty cheaply. They can forego any TV ads, no big staff, no field offices, etc. But they're still getting into the debates, getting TV interviews, etc., so they are still building name-ID.
Rand Paul and Graham and Perry who have been vocal in attacking Trump are way down in the polls and may go first. Perry's campaign manager quit and went over to Trump. Jindal should likely be one of the first to bow out.
Graham says he'll beat Trump on S.C. so maybe he does hang around until then.
Jeb's fundraisers are leaving.
The next debate will be different than the first. Trump will be ready this time.
Trump has $1 billion devoted to the campaign. The rest can't touch that. And if he does start taking donations his $ compared to the rest will be more distorted.
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