Which GOP candidate can conquer California?? (health care, voters, democrat, conservative)
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Close. He won because Governor Gray Davis tripled the fees to license a car. CA is car-oriented. Sky-high fees had owners rebelling against Davis. Schwartznegger joined the bandwagon and campaigned on ONE platform: lowering the fees. Had Davis not raised license fees.... Arnold would never have been elected governor.
It's a bit more than that. Power outages (aided by those folks at Enron) didn't help him either.
And he was a pretty lousy politician - a bit aloof from the Legislature as well.
Of course, Arnold's repeal of the extra fees had fiscal consequences that hurt the state.
Bernie Sanders is the only candidate who could deliver California to the Republicans.
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.Thomas
California is stronghold yes but getting all these swing states is more difficult than winning California.
No, not even close. They are called "swing states" for a reason. They could all go to the GOP in a close election. The Republicans would only take California in a landslide victory.
California is the single most important state for the election.
Whoever wins there is basically headed to the WH.
So which candidate has a good chance??
Trump, Jeb, Carson or others
Disagree with the concept that whoever wins Cali wins election as that has not been the case in several recent elections. No Republican is going to win Cali.
My path is not harder. Again, did George W. Bush ever come close to winning California? No - he lost it twice by double-digit margins. And yet he found a path to 270, twice.
Quote:
California is stronghold yes but getting all these swing states is more difficult than winning California.
You are making the mistake of thinking each state exists in isolation, but they don't. Consider that in 2004 (the GOP's strongest Presidential performance since 1988) Bush won by 2.4%, while in 2012 Romney lost by 3.9%. Which is to say, the GOP did 6.3% better in 2004 than in 2012. And if we look at all the states Obama carried by less than 6.3% in 2012, we have:
FL
OH
VA
CO
NH
IA
It is no coincidence that Bush carried four of these states (FL, OH, VA, IA) in 2004 - and enough to win the Electoral College. Meanwhile, he lost California by 10%. Do you understand that? During the best Presidential performance by a Republican candidate since the 1980s, that candidate lost California by double-digits - and California has only become more Democratic since then. All eight state constitutional offices are held by Democrats. Democrats hold large majorities in both houses of the state legislature, as well as the state's Congressional delegation.
The point is that if a Republican nominee can just break even in the popular vote, FL and OH almost certainly fall into the Republican column. That might not be enough, but another point or two in the popular vote stands a very good chance of adding CO, NH and IA to the column. And maybe more states. Enough to win the Electoral College.
That's how you build a path to 270.
Quote:
I'm also not sure about FL either.
What do you mean, you're not sure?
In 2012, the GOP nominee lost Florida by less than 1% of the popular vote, while losing California by more than 23% of the popular vote. What planet do you live in where FL isn't a vastly easier get for the GOP than California?
Quote:
A lot of demographic changes.
I still think Cali is the key.
Romney failed as you remember.
Yes, a lot of demographic changes in California have put it completely out of reach of the GOP. Demographic changes in Florida aren't helping Republicans, but it'll be a swing state for the foreseeable future.
Romney failed, yes - do you have a point? In your magical world where states exist in isolation of the national tide, he could have added California's 55 Electoral College votes to his tally - and he'd still have lost the election 277-261.
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.Thomas
People think Florida is a cake??
Florida is on it's way to be another California.
No one thinks Florida is a cakewalk - but anyone who isn't utterly clueless understands that it is a competitive state that either party might carry, while California is completely out of reach.
If you have to stoop to beating a strawman (ie, claiming that people are asserting that FL will be easy for the GOP to win), then you're effectively conceding that you have nothing of substance to say.
Quote:
Originally Posted by armourereric
AND, though it will take a very long time to make a difference, CA has peaked in it's EV count.
This is not so. California continues to grow faster than the nation as a whole - which is why it's one of the states expected to gain seats in the House (and thus in the Electoral College) when the 2020 reapportionment rolls around.
^LOL! You make the mistake of taking election results of a cherry picked Democrat vs Republican election and then using it to predict the future. If you think you can accurately do this, then you should start gambling on the Irish based Patty Power. You could be insanely rich as they are already taking bets on the 2016 election.
If anything, what it going on now with the primaries should demonstrate this won't be a typical election. The Middle Class has abandoned the DNC, long term political hacks are leaving both parties, and people in general are sick of the status quo.
The 2014 election was a preview of what's to come. i.e A complete shakeup of the political landscape not seen since 1976/1980. How it ends up is anyone's guess at this point.
^LOL! You make the mistake of taking election results of a cherry picked Democrat vs Republican election and then using it to predict the future. If you think you can accurately do this, then you should start gambling on the Irish based Patty Power. You could be insanely rich as they are already taking bets on the 2016 election.
If anything, what it going on now with the primaries should demonstrate this won't be a typical election. The Middle Class has abandoned the DNC, long term political hacks are leaving both parties, and people in general are sick of the status quo.
The 2014 election was a preview of what's to come. i.e A complete shakeup of the political landscape not seen since 1976/1980. How it ends up is anyone's guess at this point.
Midterm and Presidential elections are completely different. The same argument you are making about 2014 and the impact on the future was made following the 2010 elections, and we know what happened in 2012.
Getting back to the OP, the answer is pretty much no Republican can take California, and no the Republicans do not need to win California to win the nation. It will be states like VA and Florida that will determine the winner (and these are states the GOP basically MUST win in order to win the Presidency, Dens have paths to win without them, the GOP really doesn't)
Bernie Sanders is the only candidate who could deliver California to the Republicans.
No, not even close. They are called "swing states" for a reason. They could all go to the GOP in a close election. The Republicans would only take California in a landslide victory.
I don't even think Bernie could hand over California to a Republican. You would need to see some "red creep" beforehand to make that even a possibility.
^LOL! You make the mistake of taking election results of a cherry picked Democrat vs Republican election and then using it to predict the future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
The 2014 election was a preview of what's to come. i.e A complete shakeup of the political landscape not seen since 1976/1980. How it ends up is anyone's guess at this point.
"Do as I say, not as I do."
Mick
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