Wash post: Republican party panic; move to draft romney (unemployed, campaign, thought)

[pknopp]

Originally Posted by WestCobb

This is why the folks who have a modicum of understanding about political strategy are looking toward Rubio.

LOL, pissing off a large block of voters is good political strategy?

[pknopp]

Originally Posted by WIHS2006

Romney maxed out the White vote, period. He won every White voter than isent a far left liberal, LGBT, or a union official.

I didn't vote for him.

[Hellion1999]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

Here's a factually based article by Myra Adams of Red State (not exactly a liberal source) on what type of white margin the GOP would need to win without increasing their minority share. She includes a link from Sean Trende (probably the most prominent Republican statistician) with an interactive map that's pretty interesting.

GOP Nominee Needs 64 percent of the White Vote and 30 percent of the Non-White Vote to Win in '16 | RedState

Continuing to try to win solely with white voters is a statistically doomed strategy.

the Republican Party has the majority in the House and Senate and the majority of the governorship in the nation 32 states to 18 states for the Democrats. I say they are doing better than the Democrat Party around the nation.


nobody is trying to win with just "white voters" but the Republicans can't outperform Democrats in handouts and creating a bigger welfare state and for amnesty just to compete with the Democrats for those votes.

Republicans are for lower taxes, limited government and rule of law.......if keeping those principles and not selling out means not having the W.H. and keeping control of the rest so be it. This is not a monarchy, where a KING as absolute power and control.......real control in this nation comes from congress and at the state level if you really look at it.


I rather prefer a divided government.....meaning 1 party controls 1 branch and the other party controls the other branch.....that's just me......but with Hillary as the Democratic nominee, I say its a coin toss.

[SyraBrian]

Originally Posted by Hellion1999

the Republican Party has the majority in the House and Senate and the majority of the governorship in the nation 32 states to 18 states for the Democrats. I say they are doing better than the Democrat Party around the nation.


nobody is trying to win with just "white voters" but the Republicans can't outperform Democrats in handouts and creating a bigger welfare state and for amnesty just to compete with the Democrats for those votes.

Republicans are for lower taxes, limited government and rule of law.......if keeping those principles and not selling out means not having the W.H. and keeping control of the rest so be it. This is not a monarchy, where a KING as absolute power and control.......real control in this nation comes from congress and at the state level if you really look at


I rather prefer a divided government.....meaning 1 party controls 1 branch and the other party controls the other branch.....that's just me......but with Hillary as the Democratic nominee, I say its a coin toss.

I don't know that the Republicans can't compete in handouts. There was a new state by state study regarding the percentage of those qualified for the federal EITC who actually filed and almost all of the top ten were republican southern states.

The state that had the lowest percentage of qualified people who actually filed was Democratic Oregon. Part of the key to Republican success is their high level of cognitive dissonance on such matters.

It's the level of cognitive dissonance that allows a party to brag about their young and minority and outsider candidates and then rush back to an old, tired white guy when one of them threatens to win.

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by Hellion1999

the Republican Party has the majority in the House and Senate and the majority of the governorship in the nation 32 states to 18 states for the Democrats. I say they are doing better than the Democrat Party around the nation.


nobody is trying to win with just "white voters" but the Republicans can't outperform Democrats in handouts and creating a bigger welfare state and for amnesty just to compete with the Democrats for those votes.

Republicans are for lower taxes, limited government and rule of law.......if keeping those principles and not selling out means not having the W.H. and keeping control of the rest so be it. This is not a monarchy, where a KING as absolute power and control.......real control in this nation comes from congress and at the state level if you really look at it.


I rather prefer a divided government.....meaning 1 party controls 1 branch and the other party controls the other branch.....that's just me......but with Hillary as the Democratic nominee, I say its a coin toss.

it seems to me that Hillary's candidacy will be a good test for the "Coalition of the Ascendant" theory. While Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were exceptional candidates in the sense of political appeal, my guess is that Hillary would poll more as a generic Democratic candidate than the exceptional one. From that standpoint, and the traditional reluctance of the voters to keep the same party in the White House for over 2 terms, you would expect a Republican win in 2016. On the other hand, if John Kerry and Al Gore won the same percentages of the electorate that they did, and you just change the percentages of the various groups to reflect the 2016 electorate, George W. Bush would never have been elected.

If the GOP decides to nominate a "true Conservative" we could test that old theory too; that Republicans lose because they don't nominate true Conservatives. That's the problem with a Trump nomination. If he loses, right wingers would just say "he wasn't a real Conservative." A Ted Cruz nomination would be about as strong a test as you can get.

For the long term, the Republican Party has to do a better job of attracting minorities and white college graduates because their largest base of support (white non-college voters) is shrinking in both Presidential or non-Presidential cycles. To paraphrase Lindsey Graham, "we're running of angry, old, white men".

In 2012, there was nationally a 6% gap in Romney's support between white college and white non-college voters. If you exclude the Deep South and Appalachia, the gap was probably a lot more than that. In North Carolina the gap was 15% while in Virginia it was 17%.

Here's how the electorate is projected to change from 2012 to 2016 nationally and in swing states.

Projected Changes in electorate from 2012 to 2016

Nationwide

White College voters = +1.4%
White Non-College voters= -3.2%
Black voters= +0.3%
Hispanic voters= +0.9%
Asian voters/Other= +0.6%

Total minority increase= +1.8%

Colorado

White college= +1.6%
White non-college= -3.1%
Black voters= +0.2%
Hispanic voters= +0.7%
Asian voters/others= +0.7%

Total minority increase +1.6%

Florida

White college= +1.2%
White non-college= -3.7%
Black= +0.5%
Hispanic= +1.5%
Asian/other= +0.4%

Total minority increase= 2.4%

Iowa

White college= +3.6%
White non-college= -4.8%
Black= +0.4%
Hispanic= +0.4%
Asian/Other= +0.5%

Total minority increase= +1.3%

Michigan

White college= +2.1%
White non-college= -2.9%
Black= -0.1%
Hispanic= +0.3%
Asian/Other= +0.6%

Total minority increase= +0.8%

Minnesota

White college= +2.7%
White non-college= -4.7%
Black= +0.8%
Hispanic= +0.3%
Asian/other= +0.7%

Total minority increase= +1.8%

Nevada

White college= +1.0%
White non-college= -4.4%
Black= +0.8%
Hispanic= +1.7%
Asian/other= +1.0%

Total minority increase= +3.5%

New Hampshire

White college= +1.2%
White non-college= -3.0%
Black= +0.7%
Hispanic= +0.9%
Asian/other= +0.3%

Total minority increase= +1.9%

North Carolina

White College voters= +2.0%
White Non-College voters= -3.2%
Black voters= +0.5%
Hispanic Voters= +0.3%
Asian voters/Others= +0.5%

Total minority increase= +1.3%

Ohio

White college voters= +1.9%
White Non-college voters= -3.2%
Blacks= +0.3%
Hispanic= +0.5%
Asian/other= +0.5%

Total minority increase= + 1.3%

Pennsylvania

White college voters= +1.8%
White non-college voters= -3.4%
Blacks= +0.3%
Hispanic= +1.1%
Asian/other= +0.3%

Total minority increase= +1.7%

Virginia

White College voters= + 1.5%
White Non-College voters= -3.0%
Black voters= NC
Hispanic voters= +0.7%
Asian voters/others= +0.7%

Total minority increase= +1.4%

Wisconsin

White college voters= +3.1%
White non-college voters= -4.3%
Blacks= +0.3%
Hispanics= +0.5%
Asians/other=+0.5%

Total minority increase= +1.3%

http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608

[armourereric]

Trump is doing so poorly with minority voters.

Poll: Trump Gets More Hispanic Support Than Romney in 2012

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Dockside

The above Drudge Report headline was in bright red caps Thursday night and linked to a WaPo article reporting GOP power-brokers were in a blind panic over Trump and Carson, to the point where they want to draft Romney.

"According to other Republicans, some in the party establishment are so desperate to change the dynamic that they are talking anew about drafting Romney — despite his insistence that he will not run again."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...f76_story.html

Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. Maybe the WaPo is just pushing this narrative in an attempt to assert their influence. But if the so-called "elite" is worried, then good. They haven't paid serious attention for years, I would love to see a good shake out and get a more responsive and responsible "elite". Both Trump and Carson have been surprisingly disruptive forces...just what the GOP needed to wake up.

My guess, if there is a word of truth to this, it is maybe 2 people pushing him. Statements lik this are about as believable as saying the Dems are pushing for Gore to jump in the race. In fact that would be easier to believe. The last thing the Republican establishment wants in anyone else in the race. We already have 3 non politicians plus a few very good already holding office candidates. All this would do is split the party more.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by dechatelet

Trump will take all the purple states, all the red states, and about twenty blue states.

But only if White Lives Don't Matter, etc., continue their antics.

You are saying this as a joke I assume!!!!!!

[Dequindre]

Originally Posted by nmnita

My guess, if there is a word of truth to this, it is maybe 2 people pushing him. Statements lik this are about as believable as saying the Dems are pushing for Gore to jump in the race. In fact that would be easier to believe. The last thing the Republican establishment wants in anyone else in the race. We already have 3 non politicians plus a few very good already holding office candidates. All this would do is split the party more.

Exactly. If anything, Romney will just throw his backing to one of the current candidates to improve their chances at getting the nomination.

[beb0p]

All ado about nothing. Com'on now, the GOP is not drafting Romney. They are stupid, but not that stupid.
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