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If Trump wins that, he will be the nominee that beats King Hillary. If the GOP is stupid enough to pull down boss favors and nominates someone else who doesn't win SC, well.... then they will lose to King Hillary.
Did I say it enough
South Carolina
If Trump doesn't win SC. He will disappear from the political scene.
Trump may well win the nomination, but he will be annihilated in the general election. I seriously can't wait to see what you have to say in the early morning hours of November 9th 2016 after Hillary Clinton beats Trump, Cruz, or Carson in a Goldwater like landslide. There's only 3 Republicans who could win a general election: Rubio, Bush, and Kasich.
You see, in order to win the GOP must win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, and Virginia. There are no buts about it. The GOP must win every one of these states. North Carolina and possibly Ohio are doable but all of the rest are doubtful especially Florida with it's exploding Puerto Rican population and Colorado and Virginia with their urbanizing and diverse populations. Remember, Virginia's population growth has largely been due to FedGov employees and political lobbyists living in NoVA. These people tend to NOT be hardcore solid red conservatives. They tend to be moderate and centrist.
If Trump wins that, he will be the nominee that beats King Hillary. If the GOP is stupid enough to pull down boss favors and nominates someone else who doesn't win SC, well.... then they will lose to King Hillary.
Did I say it enough
South Carolina
If Trump doesn't win SC. He will disappear from the political scene.
Iowa and New Hampshire come before South Carolina. If Trump shows poorly in those two states, what chance will he have of making it to South Carolina?
Trump may well win the nomination, but he will be annihilated in the general election. I seriously can't wait to see what you have to say in the early morning hours of November 9th 2016 after Hillary Clinton beats Trump, Cruz, or Carson in a Goldwater like landslide. There's only 3 Republicans who could win a general election: Rubio, Bush, and Kasich.
You see, in order to win the GOP must win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, and Virginia. There are no buts about it. The GOP must win every one of these states. North Carolina and possibly Ohio are doable but all of the rest are doubtful especially Florida with it's exploding Puerto Rican population and Colorado and Virginia with their urbanizing and diverse populations. Remember, Virginia's population growth has largely been due to FedGov employees and political lobbyists living in NoVA. These people tend to NOT be hardcore solid red conservatives. They tend to be moderate and centrist.
After the Democratic debate performance this Friday, do you honestly think that Independents will turn out in droves for the Democratic nominee? Heck, even Democrats may stay home! They were disgusted with Hillary's stances on Wall Street, especially her little thing about 9/11.
Um, show proof that it isn't true if you doubt claim.
Trump is the only candidate now that fills venues with 10s of 1000s. All the rest can barely manage a few hundred. And don't bother mentioning Bernie Sanders. Barely anyone shows up to see him now that they know the DNC Super Delegates will insure that he won't be nominated.
You keep suggesting that the Democrats Super Delegates will make sure Clinton is nominated. However, you seem to keep ignoring the fact that the Super Delegates can and HAVE changed their vote from who they initially supported. You are also basing it off a rumor of how many support Clinton, something that hasn't been confirmed. Not to mention don't you think Trump could have the same problem with the Super Delegates on the GOP side? Similar to the Democrats 15% of the Delegates on the GOP side are Super Delegates or unpledged delegates whose votes at the Convention are not linked to the way their state votes in the Primary or Caucus.
Well. Except that in the last 5 years, the results of elections absolutely disagree with you.
Since 2010 Republicans now control the Senate, Control the House by historical margins, Control the most governorships, Control the most state legislatures.
Obama got lucky in 2012 when the GOP establishment made the mistake of pushing through the establishment candidate the hapless Mitt Romeny. That election was they GOP's to lose and they certainly did it with that strategy. They learned their mistake.
The DNC now makes the same mistake by forcing through King Hillary as nominee. She will go down the same way.
Strange that since, as you so kindly pointed out, the Repubs control All of Congress and many of the States why isn't this country is not going Great as is so often promised? If the Repubs cannot fulfill their promises with control of Congress and many States then why should the voters give them even more power?
A civil war is looming (again) for the heart and soul of the GOP. We saw it in 2012. The three main actors are:
1) Evangelical crazies
2) racist loons
3) business interests (who are becoming less and less influential in the GOP as they either become Democrats, or do not bother voting)
Who will emerge from the clown car and win the clown show this time?
Glad you see it that way. Your failure to give any credence to those of us who fall into none of those categories is just what we were hoping for.
Trump may well win the nomination, but he will be annihilated in the general election. I seriously can't wait to see what you have to say in the early morning hours of November 9th 2016 after Hillary Clinton beats Trump, Cruz, or Carson in a Goldwater like landslide. There's only 3 Republicans who could win a general election: Rubio, Bush, and Kasich.
You see, in order to win the GOP must win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, and Virginia. There are no buts about it. The GOP must win every one of these states. North Carolina and possibly Ohio are doable but all of the rest are doubtful especially Florida with it's exploding Puerto Rican population and Colorado and Virginia with their urbanizing and diverse populations. Remember, Virginia's population growth has largely been due to FedGov employees and political lobbyists living in NoVA. These people tend to NOT be hardcore solid red conservatives. They tend to be moderate and centrist.
If you believe that you need some serious help. There is no way that Bush or Kasich could bring out the voters that stayed home for Romney. There is only the possibility of winning if Cruz or Rubio are the nominee. Even haters of Cruz will "do the right thing" and vote for the R, but the grassroots who have continued to swallow their principles and pull the lever for the R because the D was just too destructive are DONE. No amount of guilt "not voting for R IS voting for D" or showering with bleach and wire brush after voting is going to make a good chunk of us who buckled to Romney, sit this one out if the nominee is an elite pick. I think D will win by a landslide if the candidate is not Cruz or Rubio, and it won't be due to the perpetual D voting blocks of blacks and Hispanics, it will be due solely to the conservatives who have had enough and are ready to deal with the consequences of not voting the party.
If you believe that you need some serious help. There is no way that Bush or Kasich could bring out the voters that stayed home for Romney. There is only the possibility of winning if Cruz or Rubio are the nominee. Even haters of Cruz will "do the right thing" and vote for the R, but the grassroots who have continued to swallow their principles and pull the lever for the R because the D was just too destructive are DONE. No amount of guilt "not voting for R IS voting for D" or showering with bleach and wire brush after voting is going to make a good chunk of us who buckled to Romney, sit this one out if the nominee is an elite pick. I think D will win by a landslide if the candidate is not Cruz or Rubio, and it won't be due to the perpetual D voting blocks of blacks and Hispanics, it will be due solely to the conservatives who have had enough and are ready to deal with the consequences of not voting the party.
The whole "stay at home conservative" is a myth, they don't exist. Republican candidates lost in 2008 and 2012 because of DEMOGRAPHICS. There simply arent enough angry old White people for the GOP candidates to win on them alone, it's not 1984 anymore. Ronald Reagan's America is gone.
Mitt Romney won a greater percentage of the White vote than Reagan did in 1984 yet Romney still lost. Romney also won the larger share of the 'independent' vote but still lost.
After the Democratic debate performance this Friday, do you honestly think that Independents will turn out in droves for the Democratic nominee? Heck, even Democrats may stay home! They were disgusted with Hillary's stances on Wall Street, especially her little thing about 9/11.
Compared to the Republican option, I think many will see Hillary as the lesser of two evils. I don't, I think besides Sanders, Christie or even Rubio are the only non-evils out there. If it's Hillary vs. anyone other than Christie or Rubio, I'll vote third party but not enough will do that to change a damn thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eye state your name
If you believe that you need some serious help. There is no way that Bush or Kasich could bring out the voters that stayed home for Romney. There is only the possibility of winning if Cruz or Rubio are the nominee. Even haters of Cruz will "do the right thing" and vote for the R, but the grassroots who have continued to swallow their principles and pull the lever for the R because the D was just too destructive are DONE. No amount of guilt "not voting for R IS voting for D" or showering with bleach and wire brush after voting is going to make a good chunk of us who buckled to Romney, sit this one out if the nominee is an elite pick. I think D will win by a landslide if the candidate is not Cruz or Rubio, and it won't be due to the perpetual D voting blocks of blacks and Hispanics, it will be due solely to the conservatives who have had enough and are ready to deal with the consequences of not voting the party.
The stay at home vote will only be effective in purple states. Red states like Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, etc. it wont mean jack. Why, because those states are safe. However it isn't known how many voters in close states decided to stay at home, rather than vote Republican... If you have numbers, by all means show that these effected close purple states.
The donor class will get the nominee they want, expect a brokered convention to make it happen. Jeb? is not out of it till next September.
"The Donor Class" is indeed very influential, but if the Tea Party faction of the GOP works hard and campaigns hard, their favorite will be very hard to sidetrack.
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