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"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,560 posts, read 16,548,014 times
Reputation: 6042
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy
The problem is that most of the respondents are so irrational that their interpretation of the outlook makes them arguably less informed than the general public or if you just predicted using a groundhog.
For example, far right repubs were delusional about polling results just a week or two before the 2012 presidential election. Far left Dems were delusional about the polls heading into the 2014 midterms and the litany of excuses they've made glosses over the general fact that they've gotten clobbered everywhere but in the presidential race since 2008.
I think the big wildcard is that people here are assuming Hillary will just follow in Obama's footsteps.
That ignores everything we learned in the 2008 primaries and elections. Obama is a charismatic generally likeable guy. Hillary (to some extent it's unfair it matters so much) has NEVER had that working for her and is now quite frankly old.
She also has a track record that is directly at odds with many of her current positions. NAFTA, her massive walls street connections, big oil campaign donations.....Obama didn't have that baggage and his campaign comments weren't as dismissible as empty talk. Lastly, Hillary alienated a number of black voters during the bitter 2008 primary.
I'm not making any predictions, but she's no Obama in terms of electability. Maybe it will still be enough, too early to tell.
You cant compare 2012 Republicans to Democrats in 2014
Polling said republicans were going to lose the general in 2012, The same is not true of the specific races in 2014 where Dems and republicans were running neck and neck in some races.
You say that, but I still haven't seen how Republicans are going to get to 270.
I couldn't imagine the Republicans winning the Wisconsin governors race or taking control of the Senate the way they did in 2014 either.
Basically, check some of your assumptions...the big one being voter turnout which was Obama's strength and already there is voter malaise about Hillary.
She may very well still win but *assuming* she's going to automatically carry some states because Obama did is problematic.
I think some of the stuff attributed to a voter shift was really more just Obama being more charismatic that the Repub stiffs and of course people looking for a change after 8 years.
FYI, if you start with 2012 and shift Florida and Ohio to the repubs you only need another 17 electoral votes. Right now you have Colorado going repub too which is 9. Wisconsin is 10 and wasn't won by a large margin right there you'd be at 270. PA will be in play as well.
Basically, unless you are talking about DEEEP Blue or DEEEEP Red states like California and Kansas etc. the others are in play and 270 is well within reach of either party.
There is only one demographic that blindly block votes so that isn't the reason.
It's the independent swing voter, those who no longer affiliate themselves with a political party that decides elections now.
For the coming election, the big problem the DNC has, is that working middle class Americans have abandoned the Democrats. 8 years of war on the middle class will do this. So every single swing voter will be headed the GOP's way. And as close as these states are votes, it doesn't take many to swing it from blue to red.
Although I can, of course, speak only for myself as one of these unaffiliated Colorado "independents" and as a moderate, I think you expressed my feelings exactly, although I am not sure that every independent voter feels that way -- I just know that I certainly do! I just wish that ALL of the Republican candidates were not so extreme in at least one social issue!
I just hope that I will not be "forced" to choose between a DNC candidate and a Republican I view as either too extreme or too inexperienced. If it comes down to a choice between HRC or Sanders and any Republican other than Kasich or maybe Paul -- which is what I think probably will happen -- I honestly do not know how I would vote. I just know that I would hate to throw my vote away on a third party candidate again.
Last edited by katharsis; 11-19-2015 at 12:43 PM..
You cant compare 2012 Republicans to Democrats in 2014
Polling said republicans were going to lose the general in 2012, The same is not true of the specific races in 2014 where Dems and republicans were running neck and neck in some races.
I'm referring to repubs refusing to believe they were screwed in the days before 2012.
I'm talking about dems refusing to believe there was any chance of losing the senate or saying things like it was 1 in a million type stuff.
But hey, link me a thread where the democrats here were expressing concern about the polls and losing the senate. I'm open to seeing your evidence.
The Colorado Registration numbers are from the midterms i might add.
Quote:
PARTY IDENTIFICATION QUESTION WORDING - Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?
REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 33%
Democrat 26
Independent 33
Other/DK/NA 8
Polling Independents at a higher percentage than the state at large has, Dems at a lower one, will indeed change the outcome of a poll. it makes the poll more republican by default.
It isn't a myth, message plays a part in turn out, but happiness with the party in power is the big driver of turn out. Generally, the American people are sick of the party in power, no matter which one it is, after 8 years.
Except for the times that they aren't and elect someone from the same party.
I couldn't imagine the Republicans winning the Wisconsin governors race or taking control of the Senate the way they did in 2014 either.
Basically, check some of your assumptions...the big one being voter turnout which was Obama's strength and already there is voter malaise about Hillary.
She may very well still win but *assuming* she's going to automatically carry some states because Obama did is problematic.
I think some of the stuff attributed to a voter shift was really more just Obama being more charismatic that the Repub stiffs and of course people looking for a change after 8 years.
FYI, if you start with 2012 and shift Florida and Ohio to the repubs you only need another 17 electoral votes. Right now you have Colorado going repub too which is 9. Wisconsin is 10 and wasn't won by a large margin right there you'd be at 270. PA will be in play as well.
Basically, unless you are talking about DEEEP Blue or DEEEEP Red states like California and Kansas etc. the others are in play and 270 is well within reach of either party.
I think voter turnout for the Democrats is still going to be 60+ million. If you see Ohio, Virginia, or Florida go blue, then the race is pretty much over because a Republican would need to win all three of those states, plus other Red States to hope to win this election.
Of course she will because she's having a coronation. I don't know why the dems are even wasting all that money on primaries and a convention. They could just donate the money to some worthy group like Planned Parenthood instead.
Because it's not their money.
They are good about spending money that other people earned. The middle class of the USA has learned this all too well.
This thread should have closed when the first person looked at the methodology.
Classic thing said by those who see something they don't like, but can't address it with logic or fact.
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