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Old 04-30-2016, 02:00 PM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,648,625 times
Reputation: 21097

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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
Can independent vote either way in California? My husband had to register as Repub to vote for Trump. We don't know if it goes through in time before we leave for a vacation.
California, according to the greenpapers is a closed primary. You have to be registered with the party whose primary that you want to vote in.

 
Old 04-30-2016, 03:07 PM
 
17,440 posts, read 9,275,650 times
Reputation: 11907
Quote:
Originally Posted by merv1225 View Post
Here's one that has Cruz up by 16 in Indiana:

New poll finds Cruz with double-digit lead in Indiana | TheHill
Real Clear Politics Indiana Polling
I wouldn't be betting any money based on this poll. IF Nate Silver says it's legit (and I see no way he can do that), then I might think it has some validity.

Problems with Legitimacy
1) Timing - it took them 2 weeks to ask 3 questions of 400 Republicans/400 Democrats - normal is 3-4 days
2) They have done ZERO polling since 2011
3) They have NEVER done a Presidential Poll
4) The polling began before the 5 State Blowout, we know when it started - why did it take a week to publish the results after it took 2 weeks to do the poll?
5) It's such a HUGE outlier from ALL the other polling
6) Cruz is getting 10's of 1,000's of people to his Indiana event, Cruz events are poorly attended.

From the HuffPo link on the poll specifics - Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics

It should be noted that there are several possible sources of error that may influence the results of this survey beyond the aforementioned sampling error. These include self-selection out of the survey (i.e., refusing to be interviewed, refusing to answer a call from an unknown phone number), question phrasing, question ordering, the tone conveyed by a questioner, alteration of the data via weighting procedures, and the manner in which respondents were filtered out (for example, determining who is a likely voter). Error that may result from these factors should be kept in mind when reviewing the results of this survey.

Does anyone remember the phony poll that emerged right before the Florida Primary? The one that said Rubio was winning ....... Trump WON Florida in a Landslide.

What is amazing is that sites like Huffpost, Realclearpolitics, Fox News have even posted this polls data. I mean these guys do a poll for 14 days that crossed through two major elections events (April 19th and April 26th) is just illegitmate on its face. IF any of these sites had an enterprising investigative journalist they should check into who financed and/or helped initiate this poll. It is more than possible that such a poll was commenced in order to effect both coverage but more ominously to defraud potential supporters out of contributions. I wonder who commissioned and PAID for this "poll"?
 
Old 04-30-2016, 03:19 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,078 posts, read 51,252,674 times
Reputation: 28326
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibby View Post
Real Clear Politics Indiana Polling
I wouldn't be betting any money based on this poll. IF Nate Silver says it's legit (and I see no way he can do that), then I might think it has some validity.

Problems with Legitimacy
1) Timing - it took them 2 weeks to ask 3 questions of 400 Republicans/400 Democrats - normal is 3-4 days
2) They have done ZERO polling since 2011
3) They have NEVER done a Presidential Poll
4) The polling began before the 5 State Blowout, we know when it started - why did it take a week to publish the results after it took 2 weeks to do the poll?
5) It's such a HUGE outlier from ALL the other polling
6) Cruz is getting 10's of 1,000's of people to his Indiana event, Cruz events are poorly attended.

From the HuffPo link on the poll specifics - Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics

It should be noted that there are several possible sources of error that may influence the results of this survey beyond the aforementioned sampling error. These include self-selection out of the survey (i.e., refusing to be interviewed, refusing to answer a call from an unknown phone number), question phrasing, question ordering, the tone conveyed by a questioner, alteration of the data via weighting procedures, and the manner in which respondents were filtered out (for example, determining who is a likely voter). Error that may result from these factors should be kept in mind when reviewing the results of this survey.

Does anyone remember the phony poll that emerged right before the Florida Primary? The one that said Rubio was winning ....... Trump WON Florida in a Landslide.

What is amazing is that sites like Huffpost, Realclearpolitics, Fox News have even posted this polls data. I mean these guys do a poll for 14 days that crossed through two major elections events (April 19th and April 26th) is just illegitmate on its face. IF any of these sites had an enterprising investigative journalist they should check into who financed and/or helped initiate this poll. It is more than possible that such a poll was commenced in order to effect both coverage but more ominously to defraud potential supporters out of contributions. I wonder who commissioned and PAID for this "poll"?
On the other hand, God told Cruz to run. Do you think that God would just let him dangle in the wind?
 
Old 04-30-2016, 06:00 PM
 
17,440 posts, read 9,275,650 times
Reputation: 11907
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
On the other hand, God told Cruz to run. Do you think that God would just let him dangle in the wind?
It was Heide who actually got the word from God and passed it on to Ted and the family, according to Daddy Cruz.
 
Old 04-30-2016, 11:27 PM
 
Location: Free From The Oppressive State
30,267 posts, read 23,751,941 times
Reputation: 38673
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
Can independent vote either way in California? My husband had to register as Repub to vote for Trump. We don't know if it goes through in time before we leave for a vacation.
He has to be registered by the 15th calendar day before the election. I believe it's on June 7. Go back from there.
 
Old 05-01-2016, 06:31 AM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
18,773 posts, read 18,154,352 times
Reputation: 14783
Quote:
Originally Posted by Three Wolves In Snow View Post
He has to be registered by the 15th calendar day before the election. I believe it's on June 7. Go back from there.

The last day to change your Party or to register in California is the 23 of May: Voter Registration | California Secretary of State. My wife and I changed our registration in PA a few weeks before the deadline. It amazed us how easy it was online and then we quickly received confirmation from our local county. I was expecting a long drawn out process. I presume that they can call their county and ask if their registration went through?
 
Old 05-01-2016, 08:23 AM
 
Location: N Atlanta
4,584 posts, read 4,201,005 times
Reputation: 2323
New Indiana poll out this morning - Trump +15

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...73001430163456

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
 
Old 05-01-2016, 10:45 AM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,648,625 times
Reputation: 21097
^Interestingly, this poll, shows the Kasich voters going to Trump instead of Cruz.

Very bad for Cruz.
 
Old 05-01-2016, 10:58 AM
 
4,078 posts, read 2,341,276 times
Reputation: 1395
Quote:
Originally Posted by leftee View Post
but but but...I thought the Wall Street Journal was garbage, biased and anti-Trump?! Thats what all the Trumpettes said when their polls show him losing in a primary or being destroyed by Hillary. Polls he's winning, the Trumpettes can't post it and shout it from the rooftops fast enough. So predictable
 
Old 05-01-2016, 11:03 AM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,648,625 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
but but but...I thought the Wall Street Journal was garbage, biased and anti-Trump?! Thats what all the Trumpettes said when their polls show him losing in a primary or being destroyed by Hillary. Polls he's winning, the Trumpettes can't post it and shout it from the rooftops fast enough. So predictable
No need for the angry insult.

Actually I checked to see if it was a NBC/WSJ "agenda poll" which they are prone to release against Trump before important elections. In this case it was not because Public Opinion Strategies was not used to do the poll. Instead it was a legit poll by Marist. Whether or not it is accurate, I won't say but their methodology is there for anyone to see.

I'm guessing that NBC and Murdoch have decided to accept that Trump will be the nominee and won't waste more money on such nonsense.
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