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This poll will be interesting to watch if Trump closes the gap. His realclearpolitics average is +4.6 behind right now, but if he were to continue to close the gap or even come within the margin of error, and still loses to Clinton in the Ipsos/Reuters poll by double digits, then there will question marks over the polling firm. We'll see though.
I'm bored. Pre-convention, post primary season. The doldrums. Should pick up when the Dems go full tilt nutso at the Republican Convention.
Truthfully, I don't think the pollsters are asking the right questions to calculate turnout and as others have said, state polling is more important.
As an aside, The Washington Post, of all papers, did a wonderful service for Trump today. Hope his team spots it. They published an article on a report that pinpoints the exact areas still not recovered from the recession. They didn't mention Trump but he should click on the link to the report and run with it as far as where to campaign.
I don't think that is a good strategy.
We know blacks and 75% of hispanics won't vote for Trump so let's get this out of the way. No need to focus on those two groups.
Whites who are struggling in places like the Midwest are more informed voters. Trump might tell them "I'll take care of you" but when they check his website plan, it only shows that he is gonna take care of the 1%, he wants to lower taxes on the rich and get rid of Obamacare. I don't think pandering to this group will help Trump. They won't listen and that will only make Trump sound like a flip-flopper.
His campaign should focus on two groups: conservatives who want their country back(focus on immigration & "western values", make "America 1955 again") and the typical republicans who are fiscally conservative and feel their taxes are too darn high and are supporting 47%of the population. That makes more sense. Will he get enough voters? Who really knows.
This poll will be interesting to watch if Trump closes the gap. His realclearpolitics average is +4.6 behind right now, but if he were to continue to close the gap or even come within the margin of error, and still loses to Clinton in the Ipsos/Reuters poll by double digits, then there will question marks over the polling firm. We'll see though.
I take the reuters poll with a grain of salt. I really don't think she is that far ahead. You'll notice that RCP doesn't include SM, MC, or RI polls. I'm guessing that they don't think that online pollsters have the best track record. I have noticed the lack of Zogby polls this year as well which seems to confirm that. Then again pollster does count them so who can say.
We know blacks and 75% of hispanics won't vote for Trump so let's get this out of the way. No need to focus on those two groups.
Whites who are struggling in places like the Midwest are more informed voters. Trump might tell them "I'll take care of you" but when they check his website plan, it only shows that he is gonna take care of the 1%, he wants to lower taxes on the rich and get rid of Obamacare. I don't think pandering to this group will help Trump. They won't listen and that will only make Trump sound like a flip-flopper.
His campaign should focus on two groups: conservatives who want their country back(focus on immigration & "western values", make "America 1955 again") and the typical republicans who are fiscally conservative and feel their taxes are too darn high and are supporting 47%of the population. That makes more sense. Will he get enough voters? Who really knows.
I think there's only but so many white voters Trump can get. Like it's oversaturated now. There's a certain percentage of white voters who will always be democratic or "liberal" no matter what. There's a reason why his vote share hasn't really gotten above 41-42%.
Essentially, he has to take some of the share from the two big minority bases in some way or another. Do you really not believe two groups you mentioned aren't already voting for him and they're what make up his vote share in the polls?
It's amazing how easy this election would have been if they had nominated someone like Marco Rubio. Not only would he have all of the Trump voters right now, but he would also get a decent share of the Latino base and likely would beat Clinton by 5 points come November. The democrats were legitimately scared of Marco Rubio.
We know blacks and 75% of hispanics won't vote for Trump so let's get this out of the way. No need to focus on those two groups.
Whites who are struggling in places like the Midwest are more informed voters. Trump might tell them "I'll take care of you" but when they check his website plan, it only shows that he is gonna take care of the 1%, he wants to lower taxes on the rich and get rid of Obamacare. I don't think pandering to this group will help Trump. They won't listen and that will only make Trump sound like a flip-flopper.
His campaign should focus on two groups: conservatives who want their country back(focus on immigration & "western values", make "America 1955 again") and the typical republicans who are fiscally conservative and feel their taxes are too darn high and are supporting 47%of the population. That makes more sense. Will he get enough voters? Who really knows.
The problem is those two groups are voting for Trump anyway. He needs to pick up voters outside of the base.
This poll will be interesting to watch if Trump closes the gap. His realclearpolitics average is +4.6 behind right now, but if he were to continue to close the gap or even come within the margin of error, and still loses to Clinton in the Ipsos/Reuters poll by double digits, then there will question marks over the polling firm. We'll see though.
I will note that Benchmark politics excepts the next few days of polling to tighten up. His reasoning is that her lead of 6-7 points was unnaturally high.
Reuters trying skew the often mentioned RCP average? I can understand be a few points out, but when 10 polls have it between 1 and 6% and one has it at 13%...that seems a little odd.
Reuters trying skew the often mentioned RCP average? I can understand be a few points out, but when 10 polls have it between 1 and 6% and one has it at 13%...that seems a little odd.
Yawn. No matter how you look at it, Trump is still losing. The only +4 he got is not even reliable.
Yawn. No matter how you look at it, Trump is still losing. The only +4 he got is not even reliable.
I don't much follow the national polls but I do closely watch electoral vote predictions based upon state polling and other factors. Right now Trump is bleeding out of all his whatevers. It's not remotely close.
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