Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
And yet Trump is spending time and resources in CA, NY, CT - states where he has little chance. I think that's a function of his ego - those places are yyuuuggge media centers.
Trump's odds aren't great in PA, but they're substantially worse in WI and VA. In fact, there's a case to be made that Trump's most plausible path to the presidency runs through PA. Assuming Trump carries FL, OH, NC, NH, and IA, he would still need CO, VA, or PA (no, I don't consider WI, MI, NV, or NM realistic targets). Given that CO and VA have a significant edge on PA with respect to minorities and college graduates, I think the latter is Trump's best bet.
I don't really think FL is a realistic state for Trump. It might be for some other Republican, but it has too many Latino and black voters (close to 45% of the population) to go for Trump. Even the Cubans don't like him.
I think we'll see more of this as time goes on and people start to pay attention to the campaigns. Many ignore the primaries/caucuses. Trump is doing awesome as his message gets out and people say "Hey, wait, that's what I have been saying for years!" Trump for the win, I mean, the competition is nearing being "dead in the water".!
I think we'll see more of this as time goes on and people start to pay attention to the campaigns. Many ignore the primaries/caucuses. Trump is doing awesome as his message gets out and people say "Hey, wait, that's what I have been saying for years!" Trump for the win, I mean, the competition is nearing being "dead in the water".!
Unless Trump improves his standing with white college grads, he's dead in the water.
From the article you posted:
Quote:
[b]We will not know until November whether Mr. Trump will attract these traditionally Democratic voters. Even if he does, he might fall far short of winning the presidency, as current polls suggest. His gains among less educated white voters have been neatly canceled by losses among well-educated voters. This could prevent Mr. Trump from winning in states with a large white working class. A recent Marquette University poll showed Mr. Trump winning by seven points among white working-class voters in Wisconsin. Yet Mrs. Clinton was leading by a huge 22-point margin among well-educated white voters, even though four years ago they split almost evenly between parties. The same dynamic could doom Mr. Trump in Pennsylvania. But if you want to know why Mr. Trump is still in striking distance — why Mrs. Clinton is generally well beneath 50 percent, and not faring too much better among registered voters than Mr. Obama was in the fall of 2012 — this is why: Mr. Trump has made big gains among less educated white voters. He has adopted a platform to do it.
Trump's odds aren't great in PA, but they're substantially worse in WI and VA. In fact, there's a case to be made that Trump's most plausible path to the presidency runs through PA. Assuming Trump carries FL, OH, NC, NH, and IA, he would still need CO, VA, or PA (no, I don't consider WI, MI, NV, or NM realistic targets). Given that CO and VA have a significant edge on PA with respect to minorities and college graduates, I think the latter is Trump's best bet.
Hillary lost MI to Sanders. Depending on how the debates go, Trump could do well there. If he can successfully argue the anti-trade deals, Michigan is going to listen.
If he can successfully argue the (D)'s bailed out Wall Street while telling Detroit to screw off, he can make gains.
Hillary lost MI to Sanders. Depending on how the debates go, Trump could do well there. If he can successfully argue the anti-trade deals, Michigan is going to listen.
If he can successfully argue the (D)'s bailed out Wall Street while telling Detroit to screw off, he can make gains.
The Ds bailed out the car industry while the GOP told them to drop dead
"Hillary lost MI to Sanders. Depending on how the debates go, Trump could do well there. If he can successfully argue the anti-trade deals, Michigan is going to listen.
If he can successfully argue the (D)'s bailed out Wall Street while telling Detroit to screw off, he can make gains."
Not enough. Trump isn't capable of flipping a D+10 blue state.
Republicans may not be committing political hyperbole this year when they say their presidential candidate can win Pennsylvania, experts say. ...................
............The key to presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump's winning Pennsylvania in November lies in just 10 counties, the experts say.
And it all comes down to tweaking the margins in existing red counties rather than flipping traditionally blue counties.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
