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Here's an interesting article, dated June 7th from the conservative publication "The Federalist" that examines how difficult a lift it will be for Donald Trump to carry Pennsylvania. Basically, it comes down to doing well enough in the suburban counties of Philadelphia, which are loaded with college educated women, who aren't exactly warming to Donald Trump.
Quote:
Trump’s problem is the same one that has confounded Republicans in Pennsylvania for years: math. Simply put, the numbers don’t add up. Since Republicans last won Pennsylvania, the state outside of Philadelphia has become solidly Republican. But Philadelphia has become even more overwhelmingly Democratic. As a result, the GOP presidential vote has collapsed in Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia area is much more blue than the rest of the state is red. Wasserman suggests Democrats may be over-reliant on Philadelphia and posits that the disparity “points to long-term problems for” them. But for now the problem is all on the GOP’s side of the ledger.
Suburbia does not like Donald Trump. It’s filled with college-educated voters, a group with which Trump performed poorly until the late primaries. Trump’s weakness with college-educated voters is the inverse of his strength with blue-collar voters, and has been recognized as such from the beginning of the campaign.
Trump has to maintain the GOP’s edge with white women just to start where Romney finished.
Trump’s suburban unpopularity manifested as losses in some of the most important suburban counties. Trump fared badly in the suburbs even of states he won easily, suggesting that he won despite them, a luxury he won’t enjoy in the fall. The suburbs’ aversion to Trump shows no sign of abating even now that he has all but clinched the nomination, for it is driven by a group that is normally a staunchly Republican constituency: white women. Trump has to maintain the GOP’s edge with white women just to start where Romney finished. Yet surveys and interviews suggest he has not overcome their skepticism.
It is all comes down to educating the people that have or want jobs. This Brexit thing came up at just the right time to open the door for people to be educated.
People want to keep their jobs and they'll choose the candidate that wants to help them do that, and that is Trump.
It is all comes down to educating the people that have or want jobs. This Brexit thing came up at just the right time to open the door for people to be educated.
People want to keep their jobs and they'll choose the candidate that wants to help them do that, and that is Trump.
Here's a quote from the Politico article that you posted that actually supports the opinions stated in the Federalist article.
Quote:
Trump’s other problem is the math. “There just aren’t enough rural voters to put him over the top,” said Berwood Yost, director for the Center of Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. Trump may indeed win Cambria County and others nearby. But Mitt Romney did, too, and he still lost the state to Obama, who won just 12 of the Pennsylvania’s 67 counties four years ago, six fewer than he won in 2008. “In this state, a Republican has got to appeal to moderate Republicans and Republican voters in the southeast part of the state, who are mostly educated and mostly affluent,” Yost said. “And I don’t know that we’re seeing that sort of appeal from Trump.”
It is all comes down to educating the people that have or want jobs. This Brexit thing came up at just the right time to open the door for people to be educated.
People want to keep their jobs and they'll choose the candidate that wants to help them do that, and that is Trump.
They don't make up enough of the voting populace is the issue. It's like Union members. Sure people belong to Unions but not it's not a significant enough percentage to make a difference with things. The issue is only a fraction of people in PA are miners. And most of them vote for the GOP as it is. Trump has to make inroads with other voters to win,
Trump will win every single county in Pennsylvania
except the metropolitan areas.
It's a tossup but Trump can eek PA out.
He will make a play for it.
In 2012, Mitt Romney won 55 of 67 counties in Pennsylvania, but still lost the state by 300,000. The balance of power in PA has traditionally been the affluent suburbs of Philadelphia. As the article I linked documented, while the rest of PA is trending R, the city and burbs of SE PA have been trending more D and thus far they have outweighed the Republican trending parts of the state. To turn the Philly suburbs to the GOP, Trump has to score with college educated women, and that's one of his weakest demographics.
Trump will win every single county in Pennsylvania
except the metropolitan areas.
It's a tossup but Trump can eek PA out.
He will make a play for it.
Thanks for the laugh.
You do not even have a clue.
Trump will lose Pennsylvania.
The problem with the article is it pretends only Philadelphia County is Democratic and the rest of the state goes for the GOP.
Seriously?
How about Pittsburgh?
How about the Lehigh Valley - Allentown (PA's third largest city), Bethlehem, Easton, and the rest of Northampton and Lehigh Counties?
How about Erie, the state's fourth largest city?
How about the Wyoming Valley - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Pittston?
What about State College and the capital Harrisburg?
I am a Pennsylvanian and I know Pennsylvania political trends. Last year the Democrats swept into office replacing the incumbent Republican governor and all three State Supreme Court seats up for grabs.
The problem with the article is it pretends only Philadelphia County is Democratic and the rest of the state goes for the GOP.
Seriously?
How about Pittsburgh?
How about the Lehigh Valley - Allentown (PA's third largest city), Bethlehem, Easton, and the rest of Northampton and Lehigh Counties?
How about Erie, the state's fourth largest city?
How about the Wyoming Valley - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Pittston?
What about State College and the capital Harrisburg?
I am a Pennsylvanian and I know Pennsylvania political trends. Last year the Democrats swept into office replacing the incumbent Republican governor and all three State Supreme Court seats up for grabs.
Yeah, the days of PA being a "swing state" are pretty much over-which is actually kind of sad. We need more swing states, not less...
Trump supporters don't care about math...trump will win because he said he will win
Now plz donate money to the billionaires campaign
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