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I agree to a certain extent - It probably will -- it's "turnout" that always "tips" an election.
Obama lost turnout (or votes) in the White, Black, Hispanic & Youth categories from 2008 to 2012.
BUT -- Romney lost even more of the White Vote. Obama still had a very high turnout in Black & Hispanic Votes -- without it (at those levels) he would have lost.
Will Hillary Clinton have those same HISTORIC turnouts? Polling doesn't indicate that she will.
The kiddos don't particularly care for her and they are a difficult group to get to the polls. She will do well with the Black turnout - but will it be as high as Obama's was? She will need it to be that high. Hispanic turnout is historically difficult to get to the polls - there are way more registered to vote than ever actually vote. Will they be irritated that she (and the Media) promoted Julian Castro as the First Hispanic VP and then kicked him to the curb? Maybe. Pay close attention to any article that documents her percentage of minority vote, compared to the 2008 & 2012 minority vote.
The Voter Registration numbers have to be a major concern for CampClinton - they are way behind and Millions of new Republican voters on the rolls, while Democrats are dropping (except for some Western States). It's also worth remembering that Newly Registered Voters and Voters who have not voted recently don't show up in Polling - they don't get contacted at all.
Bottom Line -- it's really all up in the air because there are a lot if issues in play.
The ONE thing we know for sure is that none of us have seen an election cycle quite like 2016.
I guess we will know in about 75 days or so.
Actually that's not true. Most of them were switches from conservative Democrats. Since the primaries the Dems have actually had the registration advantage. They also do show up in polling but would be screened out as likely voters if they haven't ever voted before. She also doesn't require a high turnout of them. If Trump drives out the white vote a few percentage points higher and captures a few percentage more then Romney captured then Clinton could have a black turnout decrease of 15 % and still win. The one that is really dependent on turnout is Trump.
I have not heard from one black person that supports Trump I bet you believe that he will get 70%+ of the Hispanic vote to
I am sure there are some African Americans that support Trump. However, they might be 10% or 12% or 14% of that community. The overwhelming majority of the African Americans will vote for Hillary. That just might tip the battleground states.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark Park
As of right now I think we can all agree that the voters who belong to various minority groups seem to favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.
Mr. Trump realizes this and I've been reading that he is modifying his campaign by planning on visiting urban neighborhoods and changing his previously held positions on immigration.
My question is: do you think he will be successful? Is it too little and too late to woo these traditionally Democrats? Or, as some suggested, these groups have poor voter turn-outs and do not affect election outcomes?
By "minorities" I mean ...
African Americans
Hispanics or Latino
Asian Americans
Jews
Muslims
Other non-Christians including Atheists and Agnostics
LGBT
Native American Tribes
... and so on.
What tips (if there is a tipping point at this time) the balance from my POV is the vote of center right leaning voters. Will they vote for him? Vote for Johnson? Will they not vote this election cycle? Will they consider voting for Hillary? Should be interesting to see come November where these people stand.
I'm not calling anyone dumb like you are but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that many minorities have been automatically voting for Democrats for decades now without giving it much thought even though the very people they are voting in have given them nothing but empty promises.
Republicans haven't been much better and are often viewed as Fat Suits that know nothing of the world and daily struggles outside the country club but times are changing.
It is hard to call Trump or Hillary an every man type of candidate since they are both multi millionaires but the evidence is there that Trump understands the average guy while Hillary does her best to tolerate most of us.
Trump is a 50/50 gamble but with Hillary we know we will lose.
By almost every measure, the lives of racial minorities have improved dramatically over the past 50 or so years, the same time that they've largely supported the Democrats. Republicans are, to this very day, still using racism to attempt to block them from voting and have nominated the most outwardly bigoted/racist candidate in modern times. Trump will get a small % of minorities at best, including what could be the smallest level of AA support in generations. This will definitely have consequences in some states.
Correct, things have not gotten better to the level the democrats keep promising blacks, in the inner city and beyond the inner city. And I gave a url that presents the hard data why that's still true:
I think the author sums it all up well with this line:
"All segments of Black America seem willing to give President Obama a pass on his failure to deliver for African Americans."
More power to you to see something different....blame bush....the republicans....it's not the dems/obama who has been in power for almost 8 years now, it's the phase of the moon....etc. And there lies the underlying issue why many issues remain unaddressed/largely unsolved/unfixed.
Enough voters in the inner city vote overwhelmingly democrat/keep the democrats in power. That's all it takes.
No president is president of just one demographic. The national economy has improved greatly (or bigly as Trump would say) since 2008. There are always going to be people who are having trouble regardless of how well the economy is doing. Obama is president of America, not just black communities, and America is better than it was when he came into office, objectively.
Your argument is dumb.
In other words, only dumb minorities vote Democratic?
I guess IF YOU WEREN'T SO DUMB YOU'D VOTE REPUBLICAN! is this year's minority outreach...
Pretty much. They never learn that after elections, Democrats put them back on the plantation until they're needed again.
Am I right there, Mr. Liberal?
I think Donald is going to make some bold moves to entice minority voters to reconsider him.
I also think some of Donald's most conservative Republican base will cringe when he modifies his views on deporting illegals, building a wall, same sex marriage and gay rights. Some in the GOP will cheer his efforts to create a 'bigger tent' for the party.
Like telling black folks what they should do and who they should vote for in front of large primarily white crowds? Or how about telling an almost entire audience of white conservatives that blacks can't walk down the street without getting shot?
Trump has made many enemies in the ranks or minorities but I think the smart ones are starting to realize that the Dems are not so kind to them.
2 major Hillary points that should make any minority person run to her.
Gun Control. She has said she wants to destroy the second amendment that gives citizens the right to own a gun while she is doing nothing to go after the real problem of the illegal gun murders in many of our major cities.
Many minorities want nothing more than to go to work and raise a family in a safe neighborhood. Disarming law abiding folks will very little to curb crime.
Illegal immigration. Hillary is all for amnesty to millions of illegal aliens and she wants to increase the refugee program from the middle east by 500%. How is that going to help any struggling minority individual/ family member in finding a decent job?
I think Hillary's platform is actually very anti minority and Trump needs to wake them up before it is too late.
Maybe as a registered Republican you should focus on telling the useful idiots in that party to stop voting against their interests... Us blacks can make up our own minds without conservative input, thank you...
I have not heard from one black person that supports Trump I bet you believe that he will get 70%+ of the Hispanic vote to
No, I'm a realist. Most blacks will still vote Democrat and Hispanics will also especially since they are demanding amnesty for their illegal amigos. The white turnout will be larger this year though and they are fed up with the status quo. We'll just have to wait and see how the scales tip.
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