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I know I'm late to the party but I just found out about the site FiveThirtyEight about 2 or 3 weeks ago.
When I first browsed through the site, I was thrilled to see Clinton's chance of winning was 89% and I immediately bookmarked the site and have been checking it every day. The election forecast is updated every couple of hours or so.
Every time I check, the percentage has gone down, just by a little bit. It's now down to 82.7%. That's still a high number, but I'd sleep a little better at night if the trend was going up or staying the same.
Anyone know why the numbers have been going down, and how do you think this forecast will play out in the upcoming weeks?
Come on man! If you are at 90% chance of winning how much more of an upside can you possibly go to. Of course she will go down a bit since that's about the only direction she could possibly go. Why not just breathe and wait. You we're expecting her at 100%?
I know I'm late to the party but I just found out about the site FiveThirtyEight about 2 or 3 weeks ago.
When I first browsed through the site, I was thrilled to see Clinton's chance of winning was 89% and I immediately bookmarked the site and have been checking it every day. The election forecast is updated every couple of hours or so.
Every time I check, the percentage has gone down, just by a little bit. It's now down to 82.7%. That's still a high number, but I'd sleep a little better at night if the trend was going up or staying the same.
Anyone know why the numbers have been going down, and how do you think this forecast will play out in the upcoming weeks?
Because her corruption is becoming more and more clear to the entire country every day.
The highest probability numbers on FiveThirtyEight reflected both Hillary's post-convention bounce and a particularly bad 3-week-or-so period for Trump where it seemed like every single time he opened his mouth he stuck his foot in it so deep he could hop on one foot when he was sitting down.
Since then, he's stuck more to the teleprompter so his gaffes are fewer - hence the slightly better odds for him. It won't last though, he just can't keep his mouth shut for long.
Because her corruption is becoming more and more clear to the entire country every day.
Lol! Yes. After almost 25 years and countless right wing hissy fits we are JUST getting to know her. Can I interest you in the purchase of the Brooklyn bridge? I'll give you a huuuuge deal.
The highest probability numbers on FiveThirtyEight reflected both Hillary's post-convention bounce and a particularly bad 3-week-or-so period for Trump where it seemed like every single time he opened his mouth he stuck his foot in it so deep he could hop on one foot when he was sitting down.
Since then, he's stuck more to the teleprompter so his gaffes are fewer - hence the slightly better odds for him. It won't last though, he just can't keep his mouth shut for long.
Ken
Yes, it sounds like you happened to have first seen it at the post-convention bounce high. The fact that her numbers have continue to remain solidly ahead even after that is a very good sign as we approach Labor Day. Recent electoral history shows that by this point, polling starts to become highly predictive and it looks less and less likely that the dynamics of the race will change even if the actual numbers fluctuate around a bit.
Quote:
Wait. Shrug off polls until just before primaries, or until after the conventions for the general election. Even within a week of a primary election, the polls are often inaccurate. The polls more than a month out are, at best, a guesstimate. General election polls are far more accurate on the eve of an election, and the candidate who leads after the major party conventions is likely to win.
Come on man! If you are at 90% chance of winning how much more of an upside can you possibly go to. Of course she will go down a bit since that's about the only direction she could possibly go. Why not just breathe and wait. You we're expecting her at 100%?
Nah, I just figured 7 percentage points in 2 weeks was a bit alarming.. and I'm hoping this rate doesn't continue. I can breathe if it's in the 70s or 80s.
Love the username by the way..
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