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One thing is for sure, if the pollsters miss the popular vote totals by a mile and Hillary wins easily due to polling errors and undercounting Hispanic-American voters, it will be difficult to trust the validity of polls ever again. The "science" of voter polls will be undeniably over.
On the other hand, if this elections turns out to be a close 2-3 points in the popular vote as the polls have projected, it may have validity going forward.
Polling. That's what this thread is about, polling.
Currently discussing if pollsters are adjusting for things that have changed since the last election.
One change is the surge in Latinos registering and voting.
Another is how pollsters are contacting people to ask them questions.
One method regularly used by pollsters is randomly dialing a bunch of numbers and then sampling from those who respond. It is not uncommon to have to randomly dial 20,000 to get 1,000 responses.
It is illegal to randomly dial cell phone numbers. So those who only use, or only answer, cell phones don't get included in the sample.
Pollsters weight segments of those sampled to more accurately reflect the voting population. Remains to be seen whose sampling and weighting strategies are accurately predicting the actual vote.
1. If a survey is RDD (Random Digit Dial) means that the numbers selected were brought from company using the following process. A known working area code and exchange were selected and then the last 4 numbers are randomly generated. However in order to improve efficiencies in calling they will sometimes only call number from block that have 1 or 2 listed numbers.
2. Because of the amount of screening it takes with RDD calls (citizens, registered voter, actual past voters, etc) most pollsters use voter roll samples, there are companies that will take the time to compile that information from the states and the augment that information using various sources so that they are able to complete profiles about the voters. Campaigns can they try to survey specific "groups" like Soccer Moms or NASCAR Dads to test messaging. Or they can just do more generic voter polls like the ones we have been posting here.
3. When it comes to cell phones, for the most part cell phone numbers come from dedicated phone number banks (this has changed since it became possible to port your landline number to a cell phone) But cell RDD is very inefficient for a variety of reasons for the call centers and causes statistical analysis problems especially when it comes to weighting.
4. It is legal to call cell phones as long as the calling is done manually but the rule also indicates that calls can't be made from a system that has the capacity to make autodials even if the autodialer isn't being used. This makes it more expensive and time consuming for call centers which is why they are reluctant to include these type of samples. The rules are being litigated and may be modified so this may change by the 2018 and 2020 elections.
"WASHINGTON — Two polls released Thursday indicated that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has expanded his lead in Texas with just five days to go.
"A joint poll from NBC News, The Wall Street Journal and Marist College put Trump up over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in Texas. Libertarian Gary Johnson garnered 6 percent in the poll, and 2 percent of respondents said they are voting for Green Party candidate Jill Stein."
About that YouGov FL: They have Clinton getting only 54% of Hispanics. Yet, yet!, it is still tied. Take that into consideration and it is easy to see FL going for Clinton.
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Trump expands his lead in Texas:
