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We need to ignore any new polling that includes Sat/Sun. Weekend polls skew to the right. Clinton +5 seems to be about the final number. Add a point or two for under-reporting dem vote like the did in 08 and 12 and you get the picture. HRC wins. It would not surprise me in the least if she does a little better than that even and tops Obama '08. I always figured she would, but then came the Comey knee-cap.
Because "the right" is home from work on Sat/Sun...the left is home all week.
From the NBC/WSJ Poll that had Clinton leading by 4
Divide Among White Voters
College-Educated White Men: Trump 47% Clinton 46%
Non-College White Mn: Trump 64% Clinton 26%
College-Educated White Women : Clinton 57% Trump 36%
Non-College White Women: Trump 57% Clinton 33%
From the NBC/WSJ Poll that had Clinton leading by 4
Divide Among White Voters
College-Educated White Men: Trump 47% Clinton 46%
Non-College White Mn: Trump 64% Clinton 26%
College-Educated White Women : Clinton 57% Trump 36%
Non-College White Women: Trump 57% Clinton 33%
Interesting. I believe college grads comprise 30% of US adult population. Non college grads would be about 70%.
Interesting. I believe college grads comprise 30% of US adult population. Non college grads would be about 70%.
True, but college voters share of votes casts is out of their proportion in the population. In 2012, when white non-Hispanics comprised 72% of total votes cast, college grads cast half (36%) of that vote. College voters are gaining on average 1% of votes cast while non-college whites are losing on average 3% of voter share per POTUS. 2012 was the first year the college whites were able to tie the total vote of non-college whites. With Trump's emphasis on non-college whites it will be interesting to see if non-college white share of total votes casts rises, reversing the current Trent, at least temporarily.
True, but college voters share of votes casts is out of their proportion in the population. In 2012, when white non-Hispanics comprised 72% of total votes cast, college grads cast half (36%) of that vote. College voters are gaining on average 1% of votes cast while non-college whites are losing on average 3% of voter share per POTUS. 2012 was the first year the college whites were able to tie the total vote of non-college whites. With Trump's emphasis on non-college whites it will be interesting to see if non-college white share of total votes casts rises, reversing the current Trent, at least temporarily.
To me, the most interesting thing about college-educated vs non-college-educated voters is that this election the college-educated are voting D instead of R. It will be interesting to see whether this phenomenon is unique to Trump or whether it will become a long-term trend.
Two days in a row Clinton is climbing in 538's projection. I'm breathing a little easier. And news that Clinton has been cleared of all criminal suspicions with regard to the emails matter is going to help further.
Harry Enten at 538 has a new article analyzing the Nevada early vote. As I read the article I kept expecting him to address Hispanic undersampling but he never mentions it. To me that's the elephant in the room: in some states could this be a Hispanic wave election?
Here in California registration has surged by 1.2 million since 2012, consisting of +750k Dems, -300k Reps, +900k Indies, -150k other. Most of this surge in the last 45 days. Evidence of the Hispanic wave is that the largest registration surges happened in Los Angeles, Imperial, Kern and San Joaquin counties, areas with large Hispanic populations.
If there's a Hispanic wave in California then would it not also be expected in Nevada and Arizona, perhaps even Texas? And if the polling in those states all undersample Hispanics then there may be some surprises on Election Day.
[ BTW if these registration trends hold by 2020 the Repubs will be a 3rd party in California, with Dems first, Independents second, Repubs third.]
Trump is even in Minnesota today. That's how bad it has gotten for Crooked.
No, he's there because he needs to break a blue state to win. Only issue is he should be camping in one or two states and not trying the 50 state tour. It's also hard to flip states that you never really sunk the resources into either.
To me, the most interesting thing about college-educated vs non-college-educated voters is that this election the college-educated are voting D instead of R. It will be interesting to see whether this phenomenon is unique to Trump or whether it will become a long-term trend.
It's probably like VA and CO. It was always going to happen (Them becoming reliably blue) but this election exacerbated the process.
To me, the most interesting thing about college-educated vs non-college-educated voters is that this election the college-educated are voting D instead of R. It will be interesting to see whether this phenomenon is unique to Trump or whether it will become a long-term trend.
True, but the white college vote has been more Democratic than the white non-college vote for a very long time. Whether the white college vote actually becomes Democratic is debatable, but as long as the most Republican demographic ( white non-college) continues to shrink on average -3% per POTUS, while white college increases on average by +1% (and is less Republican than the white non-college voters they're replacing) and total minority increases +2% (and voting 70% and up Democratic), the bottom line isn't pretty for the GOP.
Even if white college on average remain nominally Republican, it's not a sustainable situation long term for the Republican Party. If white college actually switch to permanently Democratic, it just brings the day of reckoning a little sooner.
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