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He isnt, it has been talked about, but not in any realistic chance other than Georgia.
Truth is, all 3 have the demographics, voter turnout just doesnt happen.
Um, maybe in 10-20 years when the demographics change, as the latino population continues to grow? Nobody is suggesting it's going to happen next week.
Is that exit polls or just the number of Dems vs the number of Reps? Either way you can't use that to predict actual votes.
Sorry I went out to dinner, but I did just find the source for that, surprisingly it's the same poll that has trump up 3 in Ohio:
"The poll included a sample of Ohio voters who have already participated via either absentee voting or early in-person voting, based on reporting from the Ohio Secretary of State that is tracked on TargetSmart’s voter file. Among these early voters, the survey finds Clinton with a 7-point lead over Trump, 48 to 41 percent. Our poll suggests that Secretary Clinton has banked substantially more votes ahead of the election than Trump. Moreover, as we saw in our recent research in Florida among early voters, a significant number of Republicans have already crossed over to support Clinton,” said TargetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus. TargetSmart – TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Final 2016 Election Survey of Ohio Early and Likely Voters
Sorry I went out to dinner, but I did just find the source for that, surprisingly it's the same poll that has trump up 3 in Ohio:
"The poll included a sample of Ohio voters who have already participated via either absentee voting or early in-person voting, based on reporting from the Ohio Secretary of State that is tracked on TargetSmart’s voter file. Among these early voters, the survey finds Clinton with a 7-point lead over Trump, 48 to 41 percent. Our poll suggests that Secretary Clinton has banked substantially more votes ahead of the election than Trump. Moreover, as we saw in our recent research in Florida among early voters, a significant number of Republicans have already crossed over to support Clinton,” said TargetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus. TargetSmart – TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Final 2016 Election Survey of Ohio Early and Likely Voters
I saw that guy on MSNBC. He finished by saying that although HRC may be ahead in the early vote, those who haven't yet voted are Republicans - and they outnumber what remains of the Democrats which is why he says Trump wins Ohio by 3%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sugah Ray
My electoral map says Clinton will win Ohio
Fahreed had Nate Cohn (NYT Upshot) and Harry Wenton (538) on today. All disagree that Wang's 98% chance of a win. Both say Trump could still win. In the end, Cohn thought HRC will end up w/322 EVs, Harry Enten 318, Fahreed 312. Given 538 is stalled at 290 for now, not sure which state(s) Harry thinks will go Hillary's way. If Cohn or Enten are right, Nate's record will be a bit marred this year.
Transcript of the show, here - poll convo at the very end:
Sorry I went out to dinner, but I did just find the source for that, surprisingly it's the same poll that has trump up 3 in Ohio:
"The poll included a sample of Ohio voters who have already participated via either absentee voting or early in-person voting, based on reporting from the Ohio Secretary of State that is tracked on TargetSmart’s voter file. Among these early voters, the survey finds Clinton with a 7-point lead over Trump, 48 to 41 percent. Our poll suggests that Secretary Clinton has banked substantially more votes ahead of the election than Trump. Moreover, as we saw in our recent research in Florida among early voters, a significant number of Republicans have already crossed over to support Clinton,” said TargetSmart pollster Ben Lazarus. TargetSmart – TargetSmart/William & Mary Release Final 2016 Election Survey of Ohio Early and Likely Voters
I saw that guy on MSNBC. He finished by saying that although HRC may be ahead in the early vote, those who haven't yet voted are Republicans - and they outnumber what remains of the Democrats which is why he says Trump wins Ohio by 3%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sugah Ray
My electoral map says Clinton will win Ohio
Fahreed had Nate Cohn (NYT Upshot) and Harry Wenton (538) on today - both believe Wang's 98% chance of HRC win is not supported by the data. Both say Trump could still win. In the end, Cohn thought HRC will end up w/322 EVs, Harry Enten 318, Fahreed 312. Given 538 is stalled at 291 for now, not sure which state(s) Harry thinks will go Hillary's way.
Transcript of the show, here - poll convo starts after Brezezinski interview about halfway down:
Hispanic? Not good but I doubt it will be enough to carry HC if the AA vote is somewhat depressed and Trump naps 15-20%. Then subtract the missing Sanders voters. A good 15-20% like the kid in the video who likely supported O but won't HC. That's going to be costly in a tight race. https://www.yahoo.com/news/bernie-sa...193903636.html
My guess is the Dem internal polling shows HC in trouble in Fl and Ohio which is why she is spending so much time in Michigan. Can't see her losing Michigan but the numbers must not be too strong or else the HC campaign wouldn't be spending so much time there.
Then there is what I guess might be a 2% additional unaccounted Trump vote. Dems for example who will vote straight blue except for the top ticket.
Will be likely settled today or put on hold for Tuesday.
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I guessing the election will be called between 8:30 and 9:00PM...