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Old 10-09-2016, 09:18 AM
 
Location: 500 miles from home
33,942 posts, read 22,527,236 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlb View Post
538 Nowcast:

Clinton 86.3

Trump 13.7
Up 12 in Pennsylvania. Up 4 in Ohio.

 
Old 10-09-2016, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Type 0.73 Kardashev
11,110 posts, read 9,814,649 times
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Florida, Clinton +3
Pennsylvania, Clinton +12
Polls: Clinton Ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania - NBC News

Ohio, Clinton +4
Pennsylvania, Clinton +8
Wisconsin, Clinton +4
Poll: Gender gap in views on Trump tape describing advances on women - CBS News

As the Trumpletariat would say...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA
 
Old 10-09-2016, 11:12 AM
 
26,569 posts, read 14,444,771 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
I doubt the polls will move much at all. Trump's voters don't care. There's some Indies to get so Clinton might pick up a couple states that she otherwise would not have like AZ, GA, UT, or MO.
i'll be curious to see if UT has a dramatic change with the governor, former governor and church-owned paper all renouncing trump.
 
Old 10-09-2016, 03:43 PM
 
Location: University City, Philadelphia
22,632 posts, read 14,943,387 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
I doubt the polls will move much at all. Trump's voters don't care. There's some Indies to get so Clinton might pick up a couple states that she otherwise would not have like AZ, GA, UT, or MO. The polls are going to reflect a 5-8 point race like they have since summer.
That is all Hillary has to do to win.

Even if Trump captures Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida but loses Ohio he still loses the election.
 
Old 10-09-2016, 04:06 PM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
7,588 posts, read 6,628,754 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
I doubt the polls will move much at all. Trump's voters don't care. There's some Indies to get so Clinton might pick up a couple states that she otherwise would not have like AZ, GA, UT, or MO. The polls are going to reflect a 5-8 point race like they have since summer.
Mmmm, yes and no. He's already lost a couple of points since the first debate, and I think he could easily lose several more as we get closer to decision time and people start to get that it's for real now. Not all of his supporters are diehard cult members; he has his share of moderately committed voters too, same as any candidate ever does. Some of them are not that hard to shake loose.

And, even if he does only lose another point or two, Hillary continues to gain from the undecideds and the third-party voters. She's added about 2.5 points from that pool since the first debate - in fact, that's where most of her lead is coming from - and if Trump continues to horrify people, she may pull a few more of those. She could easily go into November with a 7 or even 8 point lead, even if Trump only loses another point or two.
 
Old 10-09-2016, 05:00 PM
 
Location: Type 0.73 Kardashev
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YouGov poll, Oct 7-8:
Clinton 44%, Trump 38% (the previous week's YouGov poll was Clinton 43%, Trump 40%)
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/1...ober-7-8-2016/

It looks like half to maybe a bit more than half of this sample was taken after the release of the video showing Trump acting like a vile human being was released Friday afternoon.
 
Old 10-09-2016, 06:31 PM
 
Location: Mount Dora, FL
3,079 posts, read 3,121,451 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. In-Between View Post
Mmmm, yes and no. He's already lost a couple of points since the first debate, and I think he could easily lose several more as we get closer to decision time and people start to get that it's for real now. Not all of his supporters are diehard cult members; he has his share of moderately committed voters too, same as any candidate ever does. Some of them are not that hard to shake loose.

And, even if he does only lose another point or two, Hillary continues to gain from the undecideds and the third-party voters. She's added about 2.5 points from that pool since the first debate - in fact, that's where most of her lead is coming from - and if Trump continues to horrify people, she may pull a few more of those. She could easily go into November with a 7 or even 8 point lead, even if Trump only loses another point or two.
After tonights debate, HRC could easily double her current 4 or 5 point lead. I can't wait to see Trumps body language as he reacts to his interactions with these undecided voters.
 
Old 10-09-2016, 09:06 PM
 
Location: Middle of nowhere
24,260 posts, read 14,207,906 times
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538 now cast has FL, NC, NV, OH, and AZ flipped to Hillary.
Polls plus all of those except for AZ.
 
Old 10-09-2016, 10:18 PM
 
11,181 posts, read 10,532,733 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark Park View Post
That is all Hillary has to do to win.

Even if Trump captures Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida but loses Ohio he still loses the election.
Is there ANY scenario in which he loses Ohio and wins?
 
Old 10-09-2016, 10:28 PM
 
Location: Caverns measureless to man...
7,588 posts, read 6,628,754 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biscuitmom View Post
Is there ANY scenario in which he loses Ohio and wins?
Not a credible one, no. Technically, of course, it's still possible, but for that to come true so many other states that are comfortably blue would have to flip for no good reason at all that it's not possible on a practical level.
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