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I am going to wear my Trump hat for the first time going into the voting booth. There are always people standing outside trying to persuade me to vote Democrat. I guess they won't be talking to me this time around.
Interesting thank you. Substantially more democrat and independents this election.
To be fair having more Democrats and Independents turn in ballots compared to a midterm makes sense. There is no other Presidential election to compare it to since 2014 was the first time it was implemented. With that being said the fact at this point the GOP returns are only marginally ahead of where they were in a midterm year is a bad sign for them.
Early voters tend to be decided voters. One reason for Republican voters to stay home this election is uncomfortable voting for Trump. Trump is divisive within GOP.
No data to report. But TartgetSmart is reporting (MNSBC) that critical states AZ, CO, IA, MI, NC, NV, OH, VA, and W have more Democrats voting early so far. Compares favorably with Obama's win.
Vote by mail 606,144 GOP, 569,783 Dem 1,442,423 total votes cast= GOP advantage of 36,361 or 2.52%
Vote early in person 225,962 GOP, 256,593 Dem, 585,358 Total = Dem advantage of 30,631 or 5.23%
Total cast GOP 832,106, Dem 826,376. 2,027,781 Total = 5,730 GOP advantage or 0.28%
Dems continue to chip away at the GOP lead as early voting has started. It will be interesting to see what happens by the weekend once early voting expands to the entire state and the weekend typically has heavy early voting turnout
Possibly polls reflect lower number of Latinos because they base their models on prior years and predict future turnout based on demographics. If a huge shift in new voters then they might not have counted in the polls as 'likely voters'. If the unprecedented turnout of Latinos continues, then Clinton might get more votes than the polls are predicting. However, this could be negated by unprecedented turnout in Trump supporters that didn't vote in prior elections(although early voting is not showing this to be the case so far).
Don't forget counts of FL independents/non-party voters. They are a very large group. I checked one recent FL poll which says FL independents favor Trump by 10 points.
Last edited by sware2cod; 10-26-2016 at 08:08 AM..
Fourteen days out from election day, Colorado ballot returns continue to show greater Democrat returns compared to Republican. (The numbers are also being compared to 2014, since that was our first all mail election. Interesting, voting numbers are up as of now compared to 2014 among all voters except Republicans)
Please post:
Early voting data
Absentee ballot data
Analysis of these data
Please do not post:
How many Trump signs you have seen in your city or how many women in your family are voting for Hillary
538 projections or any other polls
Hateful messages against candidates or their supporters, you have thousands of threads where you can post that
and this is going to prove what? These figures can be found on the net very easily;
Here in NW AR, reports are showing lines up to 2 hours since early voting started a couple days ago. I guess if you get to the polls before 8am it isn't bad. Of course the wait depends on which polling place one uses.
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