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Highly respected statistician Sam Wang at Princeton University does continuously updated statistical analysis of polls. He has analyzed prior elections and one of the key factors he has calculated is how fast do polls move, not just one poll, but all of them together. In other words, when all polls shift two points, they do not shift instantly or overnight. It takes a number of days for the opinions of millions of people to change.
Based on where the polls are today with just 5 days left, Wang's calculations show that there is not enough time remaining for Trump to catch and pass Clinton. You can see it on the Median EV Estimator chart here. The red band is the maximum change with 66% certainty, while the yellow has 99% certainty. Since the yellow band is higher than 270 for Clinton, the stats say it is extremely unlikely for Trump to win.
The MSM is milking the election for obvious reasons and I've tuned out because it's more like reality TV than anything else right about now. Right wing media is pulling all the same old, same old nonsense and tired rabbits out of their hats with new conspiracies every five minutes. I cannot believe that Faux Newz actually rolled out Karl Rove again to make his predictions...after he had that famous hissy-fit and senior moment when Obama won in 2012. It feels like a surreal and dumbed-down rerun and the USA has an agonizingly long and tedious election season and I'm realizing that it's for the benefit of corporations to make more undeserved money and for horrible candidates like Trump to garner billions of dollars of free publicity to sell books and in Trump's case a new and typically biased and bogus Alt-Right media outlet.
Last edited by sickofnyc; 11-03-2016 at 10:39 AM..
Republicans often times speak out against math and science, in favor of feelings and religious zeal. That's why there's so many deniers of climate change on that side.
I have been reading several analyses on several different websites, and they have all come to the same conclusion: the chance of the win is hugely in Hilary's favor. I've been seeing probabilities around 80+% all around. Liberal bias or not, even many conservatives can't stomach Trump enough to vote for him. There of course, still a chance he will win, but it looks pretty unlikely at this point.
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FiveThirtyEight Predicts Hillary as well
