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The Huffington Post
Joe Vogel
With Michigan and Florida, Obama Will Win Nomination by May 20th
Posted March 6, 2008 | 05:39 AM (EST)
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For the past several days, the Clinton campaign has been clamoring for
a re-vote in the delegate-rich states of Florida and Michigan. The
poor judgment of the leadership in these states to move their
primaries before February 5th and be stripped of their delegates, the
argument goes, should not be held against the people. Their voices
should be heard and their votes counted.
Of course, the Clintons haven't been quite as keen on democracy when
it comes to pledged versus superdelegates. But trailing now by over
150 pledged delegates and 100 total delegates with just over 600 left
to divvy up, this strategy, on the surface, seems to make sense for
Hillary Clinton. After all, Florida and Michigan are big states, she
"won" them both originally, and would be favored in a do-over.
However, looking at it a little closer, there is actually a compelling
case for the Obama campaign to agree to the Clintons' request. If
Michigan and Florida are put back in play, it turns out, it will
actually speed up Barack Obama's victory. Instead of going all the way
to the Democratic Convention in August (where it could get ugly and
complicated), Barack Obama could secure the nomination by May 20th.
Here's how:
According to RealClearPolitics, Barack Obama currently has 1,573 total
delegates to 1,464 for Hillary Clinton. Add in Michigan (128) and
Florida (185) and suddenly 313 more delegates are up for grabs. Let's
say Hillary wins both of these states by 12-point margins, 56-44. This
will give her approximately 165 delegates to 148 for Barack Obama, a
net gain of 17.
That puts Barack Obama at 1,721 to 1,629 for Hillary Clinton.
Now, word is circulating in the press that 50 pledged delegates are
going to come out for Barack Obama by the end of this week so if we
add those in that puts him at approximately 1,771.
That's when the remaining states come in. Here are my modest
approximations:
Wyoming: 12 delegates (8 for Obama, 4 for Clinton) Mississippi: 33
delegates (20 for Obama, 13 for Clinton) Pennsylvania: 158 delegates
(74 for Obama, 84 for Clinton) Guam: 4 delegates (3 for Obama, 1 for
Clinton) Indiana: 72 delegates (36 for Obama, 36 for Clinton) North
Carolina: 115 delegates (65 for Obama, 50 for Clinton) West Virginia:
28 delegates (13 for Obama, 15 for Clinton) Kentucky: 51 delegates (24
for Obama, 27 for Clinton) Oregon: 52 delegates (30 for Obama, 22 for
Clinton)
And the grand total is...
Barack Obama: 2,034 (reaches the 2,025 threshold and wins the
nomination)
Hillary Clinton: 1,881
Of course, the more superdelegates start jumping to Obama (which has
been the trend since February 5th), the sooner he can wrap up the
nomination. It is not farfetched at all to believe he could be the
presumptive nominee by May 6th.
So send the memo to the Obama campaign: Give in to Hillary's demand.
Let Florida and Michigan re-vote. It only speeds up the path to the
magic number.
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