Reversal: Roy Moore Gains 8 Points in New Poll, Now Leads By 5 (democrat, Republicans)
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No, you don't. But if you're committed to fairness and the rule of law, you should not be willing to convict someone in the court of public opinion (or otherwise) based on mere uncorroborated allegations. And don't look over it as quibbling, but rather as an educational moment to stop writing things that are factually untrue based on a simple lookup of the definition of the term.
Soliciting sex from a 14 year old would be horrible and worthy of jail time (if not worse). But I, unlike others, am not willing to condemn someone based on mere allegations of wrongdoing.
If it makes you feel any better, I'm sure Ponderosa would agree with you if Roy Moore had a (D) after his name.
Really? So Ernest Hollings was a far left liberal? Zell Miller? Anne Richards?
No, but those people haven't been in office for 20 years. Today's Democrat Party is made up exclusively of extremists, at least at the elected official level.
They're not the same Fox poll. They are 2 Fox10/Strategy Research polls, and both polls are from two completely different periods and with different sample sizes.
Those are indeed 2 different polls, the problem is there is a miscommunication.
The 2 Fox Polls from the same data that I am talking about are the 2 with Moore losing. The Fox 10 poll has Moore winning by 6.
Remember, this portion of the conversation was about the polls that say Jones is winning.
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers
November 13-15, 2017 among a random sample of 823 Alabama registered voters (RV).
Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage
points. A subsample of 649 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of plus or
minus 3.5 percentage points.
let me reiterate There are 6 polls with Doug Jones leading, 2 of which come from the same data source
Change Research Jones 46% Moore 43%
Gravis Marketing Jones 47% Moore 42%
Fox News(LV) Jones 50% Moore 42%
Fox News(RV) Jones 49% Moore 40%
NRSC (R) Jones 51% Moore 39%
JMC Analytics (R) Jones 48% Moore 44%
.
Quote:
And ALL of the polls in the period I'm referring to have been of likely voters, not registered voters. Also, ALL of the polls in the window I'm referring to have their sample size listed clear as day.
Clearly that isnt true based on the Fox News poll I just posted.
Quote:
And an NRSC poll? I don't know what you're referring to. There is no publicly listed NRSC poll during the period of concern that I'm talking to on RCP. Also, I care less about polling differences between the same polling firm (irrelevant),
And what polls is RCP not including on their list? Sure, they don't include all of the public polls in their polling average (but that's because they only count the last 3-5 polls or so in their average), but they tend to include all public polling (unless there is a problem with the credibility of a poll in terms of methodology or the pollster didn't provide enough information to allow RCP to properly vet) in their overall listing of polls.
you keep using the phrase "public" to describe the polls, what does that mean ????
And obviously the NRSC poll is one that RCP didnt use seeing as you have no idea what Im talking about.
Quote:
but am instead looking at the trend across polling companies, which showed that Jones gained considerably. Seriously? When we look at whether someone is closing the gap/gaining in the polls, since when did it become common to only look at how someone is doing in polls produced by one particular company That's nonsense.
Ummm, that is exactly what a trend is LOL. Looking at a one off poll doesnt show you anything but how that one poll performed. The idea of a trend is to compare similar or the same polling companies to each other and contrast what ever had changed over that period of time.
No, but those people haven't been in office for 20 years. Today's Democrat Party is made up exclusively of extremists, at least at the elected official level.
Joe Manchin?
Doug Jones is MUCH more aligned with Joe Manchin than Elizabeth Warren.
No, but those people haven't been in office for 20 years. Today's Democrat Party is made up exclusively of extremists, at least at the elected official level.
let me reiterate There are 6 polls with Doug Jones leading, 2 of which come from the same data source
Change Research Jones 46% Moore 43%
Gravis Marketing Jones 47% Moore 42%
Fox News(LV) Jones 50% Moore 42%
Fox News(RV) Jones 49% Moore 40%
NRSC (R) Jones 51% Moore 39%
JMC Analytics (R) Jones 48% Moore 44%
.
Clearly that isnt true based on the Fox News poll I just posted.
you keep using the phrase "public" to describe the polls, what does that mean ????
And obviously the NRSC poll is one that RCP didnt use seeing as you have no idea what Im talking about.
Ummm, that is exactly what a trend is LOL. Looking at a one off poll doesnt show you anything but how that one poll performed. The idea of a trend is to compare similar or the same polling companies to each other and contrast what ever had changed over that period of time.
I see the Fox News poll issue. The reason why RCP doesn't include the RV poll in its list is likely precisely because its not a reliable poll of voter intent, particularly at this point in the game (i.e. registered voters don't tell the story of who is actually likely going to show up and vote). Hence, they only use the Likely Voter subset in their list, which is a fair accounting of matters.
From the Fox News poll:
Quote:
A subsample of 649 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of plus or
minus 3.5 percentage points.
And such a swing among likely voters and registered voters is not so wild as to not be believable, especially given the dynamics of the race and of the state. Still, RCP was right not to use the registered voter part of that poll in its sample for the reasons I discussed.
And you're still looking to trends as noted by one particular poll over time (i.e. Fox News poll). But, in establishing whether a candidate is on an upward/downward trend, its useful to look at trends across ALL polls. Credible polling is merely looking at voter mood across a snapshot in time. A Fox News poll from two days last week that had Jones up (hypothetically speaking) by 2, and one from two days later that had him up by 3 show an upward trend for Jones based on that poll. But you can still build analyze/build a trend based on a subsequent poll (say, from CNN) a week later, that has Moore up by 4, and one two days after (from PBS) that has Moore up also by 4). The trend is based on all released polling on the race, not just on a trend from polling from one particular firm. It is nonsensical to argue that the only trend is that Jones is up based on the Fox News poll. The only way I'd have a problem establishing a trend based off of polls released by different firms is if there was some question as to the firms' methodology or reliability. But that's not the case here, particularly when looking at the polls that RCP puts in its list.
But, hell, I'll modify my analysis/argument to account for polling of "LIKELY VOTERS."
One would expect Democrats to do well in a state as blue as Virginia is, plain & simple.
Right. That's like celebrating a GOP victory in Louisiana. The GOP winning in a red state is as expected as a Dem winning in a blue state. Its only remarkable when one party defies the odds and wins where its not "supposed to" win.
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