Bernie Sanders has no chance at winning a Dem primary (voting, thought)

[ohioaninsc]

Bernie won't run again...he will be nearly 80 by then.

[Erratikmind]

Originally Posted by dashrendar4454

I think he would do better in the Asian vote in a second go around but not with black or Hispanic

Nope, but Mr. Bernie is encouraged to make another run of it.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by dashrendar4454

I am surprised that there are some liberals that think so



regardless of any DNC bias, Bernie did horribly with minority voters and older voters during the primaries. You need those voters to win important states.


If he ran in 2020 he would lose the minority voters to Cory Booker or Kamala Harris or Oprah


Bernie has no chance at winning a Dem primary

I seriously doubt he would even consider a run, especially at his age. He even looks old, mainly because of his posture. This may not be a reason for not supporting him, but looks do make a difference.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by PCALMike

The vast majority of his voters were above 30 years old though.

His main problem in the Dem primary was that so many minority voters didnt know much about him. If we look at the polls now, we see that he is viewed favorably by 73% of African Americans and 80% of Democrats, making him the most popular politician in the country.

Poll: Bernie Sanders country's most popular

Being viewed favorably plays almost no roll on who people vote for. I think 2016 proved that. He could not win the nomination and if he did, by some he would never win. At least that is my opinion. Remember many people say they favor a person favorably or negatively based more on if they like the person, not on their political views.

This is about like saying, which someone has, Biden will run and win. Both Biden and Sanders, if nothing else have long past the age where running for President and winning is even a remote possibility.

[pknopp]

Originally Posted by nmnita

Being viewed favorably plays almost no roll on who people vote for. I think 2016 proved that. He could not win the nomination and if he did, by some he would never win. At least that is my opinion. Remember many people say they favor a person favorably or negatively based more on if they like the person, not on their political views.

This is about like saying, which someone has, Biden will run and win. Both Biden and Sanders, if nothing else have long past the age where running for President and winning is even a remote possibility.

Sanders is still the standard bearer for one reason. No one else in the party has stepped forward to represent the values and ideas that he holds.

[emm74]

Bernie Sanders is not a Democrat, so by definition, he is not the standard bearer of the Democratic party.

My guess is he plans to run again. My prediction is that he will lose the primary, again. Against who, much too early to say.

[mrpeatie]

Isn't the age split Trump 72, Biden 74, Sanders 76? For all intents and purposes they are the same age.


I actually think Sanders' disheveled, rambling, old man shtick is part of his appeal. It's as if he ran out of f**ks to give when he started collecting social security, so now he's just going to share the old man rage.


One thing no one is mentioning is whether or not Sanders can pull in working class white voters at equal or greater numbers than 2016. If they are dissatisfied with Trump- or Trump is unopposed- that is a voting demographic that could play a big roll in the primaries. I think Biden would do well with this segment in the Rustbelt but that could be a Sanders' strength in other regions.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by mrpeatie

Sanders big problem was that he didn't have a presence or existing relationships when those Southern state primaries started rolling along. Clinton had the backing of almost all of the top black legislators in those states. You are not going to see the establishment as perfectly aligned to one candidate in 2020 and Bernie has only built recognition over the last two years. The other quirk is a lot of people felt they had to vote for the more electable candidate... which turned out to have been a giant miscalculation.


To be honest I think if Biden enters he will roll through a primary. But I also think Sanders will see an uptick in minority support. Much of Clinton's support was of the vote with your head not your heart variety and plenty of people still feel plenty burned over that. The Clinton's also let it be known in 2008 and 2016 that any opposition would be noted and repaid- Bill actually actively campaigned for her supporters and for the opponents to people who supported Obama over her.


The more interesting matchups will be if Warner or Harris enter the race. I just do not see Booker as the primetime candidate everyone else does.

The problem with your Sanders argument is that he still doesn't have that connection with the South. Joe Biden, Cory Booker and Jason Kander have been crisscrossing the South the last year.

The establishment may very well split on who they support, but it won't be splitting off to support Sanders who has never done anything to elected other Democrats.

And to be clear, bill and Hillary pretty much campaigned for any Democrat who won the primary . When they did pick a side in a primary it was either because it was super one sided or because the person running was a former member of the Clinton white house , not just Obama vs Clinton.

As for "head over heart", you are just plain wrong there. We are not all progressives, some of us simply see the world differently and Hillary was a far better choice ideologically .

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by PCALMike

Not true. Polls show that huge numbers of minority voters did not know who he was. This idea that minorities dislike Sanders was a big media myth. Very few minorities actively disapprove of Sanders. The "dont know" group was very large in the primary unlike the situation with Hillary, as almost everyone knew who she was. Wall Street democrats have a huge advantage in terms of name recognition, but that doesnt mean they are actually as popular as people try to portray.

This argument doesn't really work since the name ID polls all came out in summer of 2015, and voting for southern states was 9 months away and Sanders won 2 of the 4 major contest before super Tuesday.

. I'm telling you this as a black southern Democrat who was on the ground going to meeting at the time and hearing people lobby for their candidate. He wasn't liked.

And it needs to be noted that

Personal like =/= would vote for.

Bernie has a 73%" I'd like to have a beer with him " rating is not the same as " I'd vote for him over Hillary or anyone ".

I don't view him as a person negatively, so I'm in that 73%, but he would be the last Democrat I would support in a primary.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by pknopp

Sanders is still the standard bearer for one reason. No one else in the party has stepped forward to represent the values and ideas that he holds.

Bernie Sanders was never the standard bearer of the Democratic party nor is he now, so how can he still be ????