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Full disclosure, I am a Republican, but this has nothing of the feel of the last blue wave under George Bush II. The Dems will pick up seats in the house, but if anything, I am seeing a lot of mixed messages. Here are some factors.
1) Trump has momentum.
The tax cuts are kicking in. The state of the Union was overwhelmingly positive. The economy is RED HOT and Trump will get credit no matter how much the oppostion cries. The estimates for first quarter growth are 5.4%, which Obama claimed was no longer possible. Companies are re-investing in America and citing the tax cuts and deregulation. At some point, people are gong to vote their wallets. The generic ballot is plus 7 Dems and Trump's composite approval is -12.3, but these are actually VAST improvements fro the GOP. In the most literal way, the momentum is towards the GOP.
2) Shy Trump voters and skewed polls.
We know from wiklieaks that a lot of these polls are skewed anyway, and from the election that the shy Trump voter is real. Will that translate to a shy GOP voter in the midterms? Plus 7 is not going to be enough for a true Dem tsunami, but I wouldn't count on that being real number anyway.
3) GOP turnout dwarfs the Dems in midterms.
Nuff said.
4) They aren't going to win back the Senate
Structurally, the Dems chance of getting back the Senate is slim, and at these numbers, there is no chance. What we are really talking about here is the House. All predictions of a Dem Tsunami are with the caveat that the Senate is a bridge too far anyway.
5) Russia fatigue and counterpunching.
I know a lot of you true-blue Dems and true-pink socialists want to believe that this thing is going to break open any minute, but the truth is that they aren't going to get anywhere near Trump, most Americans know it and have moved on to the economy. What is more, with the Nunes memo out, the tech and other potential Dem scandals in the background, the many revelations about partisanship in the DOJ and FBI, this thing has mostly run its course. In fact, I personally believe that most Americans were sick of this a long time ago.
6) The Dems are not charismatic
Chuck Schumer is the only Democrat to have ever lost a government shut-down fight and Nancy Pelosi not knowing who the president is is not helping her cause. The Dems shutting down the government for illegals did not score them any points, and their sour faces during the SOTU really is reverberating through the electorate. The question begs: what the hell do the Dems even stand for at this point? Who are these creepy America-haters who drop in to tell us that we are deplorable and that they need to tell white people to shut up? Is that the pathway to victory?
7) The money
Just read that the RNC has 40 million dollars and the DNC is quite literally broke. Dem candidates are raising a lot of money, but a lot of that is going to be wasted in the primaries, since so many are salivating to get in, expecting a wave which I don't think will materialize.
8) Trump-hatred fatigue
There are other factors but I am going to wrap this with the simple idea that after the tax cuts, Americans, tired of being fearful, are going to look at their wallets, and take a second look at Trump's actual polices. At that point, they are going to realize that growing the economy and securing the borders is not a bad agenda.
It could go either way--it's all down to momentum at the last minute. But bookmark the thread for November. I am actually pretty good at this. Note this thread where I told you that Trump had a good chance and picked the states that he would pick off:
I predict that the GOP will narrwowly retain the House and expand in the Senate.
You seem to forget his ratings are the lowest of any president ever. He has his base but no one else. And voters who don't like Trump won't vote republican in the mid terms
There was virtually a zero percent chance that the Alabama Senate race last year would be won by a Democrat, and somehow it happened. There is a narrow path for Democrats to win a Senate majority - if all their incumbents get re-elected, and they win seats in Nevada and Arizona, they will have 51 senators next year.
My guess is the probability of this is about 20%. It's still early in the campaign cycle, but most of the Republican challengers trying to pick up the red state seats do not seem to be very strong fundraisers. The other key factor is that Senate incumbents from the opposite party of the president seldom lose in midterms. How this plays out against the dynamic of Trump carrying several of those states in landslides in 2016 remains to be seen, but their Democratic senators are not Hillary Clinton.
You do realize the Republican was caught up in a sex scandal right?! Jones will lose his regular election.
there is no doubt democrat party will gain seats in 2018 if we look at the history of midterm elections. it will be interesting to see if the democrats continue to move far left at a rapid speed. the dem party is two parties: Bernie's party and Clinton's party. they despise each other.
will voters elect Bernie far left democrat candidates or Clinton democrat candidates?
I agree OP that many are tired of the non stop anti Trump garbage that is spewed at us all day long from the Dems and most news outlets. It is so wearing. Add to that that Trump has not nuked the planet yet and the economy is chugging along has people second guessing the doom and gloom that the Libs, celebrities and talking heads on CNN predicted.
Russia Russia Russia is turning out to be a big lie started by the Dems and the corruption may go all the way to Obama.
Recently we have seen that the Dems are willing to shut down the Gov. to push for the rights of illegal aliens. They are choosing the law breakers over honest hard working Americans.
The majority of Dems have gone so far Left that they are bordering on socialism.
I'm sure that the Dems will win some elections here and there but a "wave"? I don't think so.
You seem to forget his ratings are the lowest of any president ever. He has his base but no one else. And voters who don't like Trump won't vote republican in the mid terms
Dear,
We are talking about Democrats. What are their ratings?
Let`s see how the treason investigation plays out before making any predictions.
Since the evidence is pointing towards the democrats committing treason it certainly won't help them, except among the rabid anti American left they'll still vote Democrat.
Full disclosure, I am a Republican, but this has nothing of the feel of the last blue wave under George Bush II. The Dems will pick up seats in the house, but if anything, I am seeing a lot of mixed messages. Here are some factors.
1) Trump has momentum.
The tax cuts are kicking in. The state of the Union was overwhelmingly positive. The economy is RED HOT and Trump will get credit no matter how much the oppostion cries. The estimates for first quarter growth are 5.4%, which Obama claimed was no longer possible. Companies are re-investing in America and citing the tax cuts and deregulation. At some point, people are gong to vote their wallets. The generic ballot is plus 7 Dems and Trump's composite approval is -12.3, but these are actually VAST improvements fro the GOP. In the most literal way, the momentum is towards the GOP.
2) Shy Trump voters and skewed polls.
We know from wiklieaks that a lot of these polls are skewed anyway, and from the election that the shy Trump voter is real. Will that translate to a shy GOP voter in the midterms? Plus 7 is not going to be enough for a true Dem tsunami, but I wouldn't count on that being real number anyway.
3) GOP turnout dwarfs the Dems in midterms.
Nuff said.
4) They aren't going to win back the Senate
Structurally, the Dems chance of getting back the Senate is slim, and at these numbers, there is no chance. What we are really talking about here is the House. All predictions of a Dem Tsunami are with the caveat that the Senate is a bridge too far anyway.
5) Russia fatigue and counterpunching.
I know a lot of you true-blue Dems and true-pink socialists want to believe that this thing is going to break open any minute, but the truth is that they aren't going to get anywhere near Trump, most Americans know it and have moved on to the economy. What is more, with the Nunes memo out, the tech and other potential Dem scandals in the background, the many revelations about partisanship in the DOJ and FBI, this thing has mostly run its course. In fact, I personally believe that most Americans were sick of this a long time ago.
6) The Dems are not charismatic
Chuck Schumer is the only Democrat to have ever lost a government shut-down fight and Nancy Pelosi not knowing who the president is is not helping her cause. The Dems shutting down the government for illegals did not score them any points, and their sour faces during the SOTU really is reverberating through the electorate. The question begs: what the hell do the Dems even stand for at this point? Who are these creepy America-haters who drop in to tell us that we are deplorable and that they need to tell white people to shut up? Is that the pathway to victory?
7) The money
Just read that the RNC has 40 million dollars and the DNC is quite literally broke. Dem candidates are raising a lot of money, but a lot of that is going to be wasted in the primaries, since so many are salivating to get in, expecting a wave which I don't think will materialize.
8) Trump-hatred fatigue
There are other factors but I am going to wrap this with the simple idea that after the tax cuts, Americans, tired of being fearful, are going to look at their wallets, and take a second look at Trump's actual polices. At that point, they are going to realize that growing the economy and securing the borders is not a bad agenda.
It could go either way--it's all down to momentum at the last minute. But bookmark the thread for November. I am actually pretty good at this. Note this thread where I told you that Trump had a good chance and picked the states that he would pick off:
I predict that the GOP will narrwowly retain the House and expand in the Senate.
I thought there was a possibility of a blue wave and there still might be but the Democrats have behaved like childish babies at every bit of good news they get mad.
I've thought of all of the factors you mentioned above and I agree with all of them. If the economy continues to grow, we could see the Republicans pick up some seats. I have to wonder why so many Republicans are not seeking re-election so that is what the Democrats will hang there hopes on.
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