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Nope, not when you have a thriving economy, jobs, tax cuts, peace, ISIS nearly wiped out, Noko wanting peace, Russia as an ally.
Yeah I do understand that the mid year's often is harsh for the President's party but even harsher if the President is a Democrat. I thin the prospect of the Dems taking the House is 50%.
My “nope” was to the idea that the Republicans can gain seats in a time when they already hold most of the competitive seats and their president has a negative approval rating.
Odds are overwhelming that one of the following scenarios occurs:
1. Rosy R scenario: Republicans lose 10-22 seats but retain control of the House. Cook Political already has 10 R seats that they rate as either likely or leaning D with only 1 D seat leaning R. There's an additional 25 R seats rated as tossup as opposed to 2 D seats.
2. Democrats barely take control: Republicans lose 23-35 seats
3. Blue Wave: Democrats take more than 35 and take firm control.
#3 is the least likely as of now, but still much more likely IMO than Republicans gaining House seats, because there just aren’t that many legit targets.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 08-12-2018 at 11:17 AM..
My “nope” was to the idea that the Republicans can gain seats in a time when they already hold most of the competitive seats and their president has a negative approval rating.
Odds are overwhelming that one of the following scenarios occurs:
1. Rosy R scenario: Republicans lose 10-22 seats but retain control of the House. Cook Political already has 10 R seats that they rate as either likely or leaning D with only 1 D seat leaning R. There's an additional 25 R seats rated as tossup as opposed to 2 D seats.
2. Democrats barely take control: Republicans lose 23-35 seats
3. Blue Wave: Democrats take more than 35 and take firm control.
#3 is the least likely as of now, but still much more likely IMO than Republicans gaining House seats, because there just aren’t that many legit targets.
I just said it's possible that Repubs gain seats, I don't think that's the current expectation but it's a battle between Democrats normally not showing up in off election years versus the trend of the party of the President losing seats....the other factors favoring Repubs is a strong economy, control over the border, peace and prosperity.
I think your 3 scenarios are pretty good but there is a 4th scenario that is admittedly unlikely at this point....Repubs picking up seats in the Senate & House.
I just said it's possible that Repubs gain seats, I don't think that's the current expectation but it's a battle between Democrats normally not showing up in off election years versus the trend of the party of the President losing seats....the other factors favoring Repubs is a strong economy, control over the border, peace and prosperity.
I think your 3 scenarios are pretty good but there is a 4th scenario that is admittedly unlikely at this point....Repubs picking up seats in the Senate & House.
The Senate isn’t a stretch at all, but the House certainly is. There's only X number of contestable seats and the Republicans are currently holding the vast majority of them because of their successes in 2010 and 2014. The range of seats that are at all competitive are up to 7-1 or 8-1 currently Republican, based upon whose doing the analysis.
I just said it's possible that Repubs gain seats, I don't think that's the current expectation but it's a battle between Democrats normally not showing up in off election years versus the trend of the party of the President losing seats....the other factors favoring Repubs is a strong economy, control over the border, peace and prosperity.
I think your 3 scenarios are pretty good but there is a 4th scenario that is admittedly unlikely at this point....Repubs picking up seats in the Senate & House.
The possibility exists the GOP could lose the House and actually pick up seats in the Senate. Due to the Democratic wave in 2006 and picking up a couple seats in 2012 despite a tough map, the Senate map for the Democrats is very tough this year. They could have a great midterm and still lose a Senate seat or two as a result. Likewise the GOP wave in 2010 set themselves up for a tough Senate map in 2016, so despite winning the Presidency they lost seats in the Senate in 2016, simply due to what seats were up.
If I were to guess at this point I would see Scenario 2 as the most likely Scenario. Democrats pick up a similar amount of House seats as they did in 2006. I do not expect the GOP to retain control, nor do I expect the Democrats to pick up nearly as many seats as the GOP did in 2010.
On average democrat presidents lose 32 house and 4 senate seats.
On average republican presidents lose 21 house and 3 senate seats.
Bush gained house and senate seats, it's not likely Trump will but I suspect there is more support for the GOP across the country than liberals and liberal media will believe or report on.
Nope, not when you have a thriving economy, jobs, tax cuts, peace, ISIS nearly wiped out, Noko wanting peace, Russia as an ally.
Yeah I do understand that the mid year's often is harsh for the President's party but even harsher if the President is a Democrat. I thin the prospect of the Dems taking the House is 50%.
Bwahahha. Others have addressed the economy portion of your nonsense, and I think the jobs part. So lets address some of the other ones:
Peace. Oh really?
White houses says we are fighting in 7 countries: https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/...even-countries
tax cuts...that only benefited the rich primarily. Turns out its not helping much of anyone else, and the deficit is jumping. In fact wages adjusted for inflation show us losing money for the average citizen. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ybacks-tax-cut
ISIS....nothing Trump has done has contributed to it. We cant look at anything and say "oh that helped"
Russia as a ally. Really? You say that with a straight face? Russia is not our ally. What utter complete nonsense. They're currently engaging in interfering with our elections. We should be returning the favor. They are acting like a nation at war with us. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbest.../#6676c0c078f0
Eventually we will get real leadership and make Russia pay.
So no, I dont think that Republicans will do well in the mid terms. And you should try looking at reality to see why.
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Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,549 posts, read 16,536,658 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by armourereric
At what number of Republican seat loss do we transition from normal expected historical seat loss to "OMG, it's Trumps fault"?
by most estimates, Dems are going to gain 10 to 20 seats and fall just short of a majority.
I think the moment R's lose the house, that is when that OMG moment happens.
However, I think the realistic number is closer to 40 seats, because that is when you get into the unexpected losses category. R+10 seats becoming Democratic.
The above replies were what I was looking for because you just know that as soon as the GOP looses 5 seats it will all be Trumps fault.
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