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Before the midterms there were countless reports that Republican candidates across the nation were in danger of “losing” white college-educated women voters, a key bellwether demographic.
So how did the Sunshine State fare with these highly engaged voters? The answer is “crash and burn.”
When compared to Trump’s support in 2016, both Scott and DeSantis shed 18 percentage points’ worth of college-educated white women. According to 2016 exit polls, Trump won 60 percent of these women, while Scott and DeSantis won only 42 percent. That trend spells disaster for the GOP in 2020.
Conversely (and noteworthy) in 2016, only 37 percent of white college-educated Florida women voted for Hillary Clinton. But in 2018, Nelson won 58 percent of this politically active demographic while Gillum won 57 percent, a 20-point increase in just two years.
Another ominous sign for Florida Republicans revealed in last week’s midterm was that college-educated white women comprised only 13 percent of the electorate, down from 18 percent in 2016. But in 2020 — especially if Democrats nominate a candidate who energizes this bloc and manages to increase their electoral percentage back up to 18 percent or more — President Trump will have difficulty maintaining the 1.2 percent margin of victory with which he won the state in 2016.
Another interesting Florida midterm data point is that women constituted 55 percent of the total electorate compared to 45 percent for men. This 10-point gender gap is up four percentage points from 2016 when women bested men by only six points — 53 percent to 47 percent.
Democrats Nelson and Gillum won women by double digits, but both narrowly lost their races (we think -- stayed tuned). Nelson won women by 56 percent to 43 percent over Scott, and women supported Gillum over DeSantis by essentially the same margin, 55 percent to 43 percent.
So how did Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis eke out the slimmest of victories? The answer is men, men, men.
Polls don't matter, voter turnout matters.
And the party in power tends to have lower turnout in midterms, and that's why Clinton lost 54 House seats in 1994, and Obama lost House 63 seats (and 6 Senate seats) in 2010.
The party in power are happy campers, and it shows in midterms.
The President always benefits from losing the midterms, because it motivates his base for the next General election.
Trump is very lucky that Democrats took the House, so Trump's base will be awake for 2020.
I would be willing to bet that if Trump runs again in 2020, that the Dump Trump people in the country will be just as energized, if not more, as the Trump base.
I should also note that a portion of Trump's base is exclusively in favor of Trump and not interested in the Republican party itself, so they're far more likely to vote in 2020 than 2018.
The midterms were not a measure of Trump's base.
I don't think there has ever been a President with such a personal and non-political connection with his voters.
The power of Trump's personality is unmatched, and something no Democrat candidate can match.
Trump may not even be on the ticket: people in both branches of the Establishment Party loath the fact that a flamboyant outsider makes them both look ridiculous, clearly revealing that neither one has a worthy leader, to put it nicely.
Either way, the economy could be booming. The Fed could engineer a recession.
We could be at peace. We could be at war.
In any case, by law, the only category of voter is individual voter by electoral jurisdiction, of which there are several.
I do not read in the Constitution or electoral law about any other identity.
Gridlock is good, as artfully designed in the Constitutional architecture.
Finally, a serious individual cannot take these "polling" companies seriously. Ask Brexit, ask Trump, ask Nelson, ask Gillum, and a number of others.
So how did Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis eke out the slimmest of victories? The answer is men, men, men.
Notice how the left has spent so much time trying to delegitimize men the past few years with certain catch phrases and constant attacks on masculinity? They need to control the male population in order to marginalize their voting base and reduce their power.
So how did Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis eke out the slimmest of victories? The answer is men, men, men.
Notice how the left has spent so much time trying to delegitimize men the past few years with certain catch phrases and constant attacks on masculinity? They need to control the male population in order to marginalize their voting base and reduce their power.
Exit polls make your masculinity feel threatened? Lmao.
Starting facts about who supports particular candidates =/= delegitamizing them
You feel that voting Republican is the only way to maintain your masculinity? Sad! I voted McCain, Romney (and even Scott!) In the past, but pretty much shifted to dems after the rise of trump
I would be willing to bet that if Trump runs again in 2020, that the Dump Trump people in the country will be just as energized, if not more, as the Trump base.
depends on whom the Democrats choose to run
will they will end up with Hitlery.... maybe....
but what are their other choices???
harris... dingbat loon
warren... dingbat severe loon
beto... criminal
Sherrod brown... spouse abuser
menendez... criminal
sanders...too old, and a socialist loon
eric holder....criminal
andy Cuomo....not a chance...he is a loon and as head of HUD was part of the housing crisis
gillibrand.... dingbat severe loon
booker.... severe loon, angry, and a criminal
avenatti...severe loon, angry
bloomberg..... nope sugar tax man wont have a chance
Pelosi...cant even get enough of her own party to support her being speaker
dems best chance.... Biden... who like trump has no filter, and is more centrist....
Oh yes, lucky lucky Trump for Dems winning the House. New reports are that he's celebrating and high fiving WH staff, and chipper and happy every day that Dems won the House. I mean, how lucky is he!
Oh yes, lucky lucky Trump for Dems winning the House. New reports are that he's celebrating and high fiving WH staff, and chipper and happy every day that Dems won the House. I mean, how lucky is he!
Lmao. Maga fans love inventing their own fake news. They learn from the best.
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