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No matter how strong his support his among his base, one thing that Trump has going against him going into the 2020 election is his strong disapproval rating. Most people who aren't Trump supporters are strongly against him and that generally signals high turnout for voters against the incumbent. A lot of Trump supporters want to compare Trump to other Presidents who faced similarly low approval numbers and then went onto re-election but none of them were named Donald Trump. They didn't have the amount of passion against them that Trump does. Not Clinton, Bush, or Obama had the kind of passionate disapproval Trump does and that will come into play this election. While any other Republican might win by default because the Left is currently so unpopular, Trump doesn't have that advantage because he's Trump. To a lot of people, they may not like everything the Left is for but they definitely don't want Trumpism. A lot of people will be voting, many probably for the first time, for no reason other than to "get rid of Trump."
So it all depends on whether or not he has enough support in the states he needs. I personally think he will expand his support in the Bible Belt, winning Southern states by larger margins than in 2016. The left is less popular in MAGAland now than it ever has been. On the other hand, I think it will be difficult for him to hold the Rust Belt and he also may end up losing Arizona. Another problem for Trump is that white suburban college educated support will be much weaker in 2020 than it was in 2016. Most of these were the "give Trump a chance" supporters, most of whom are no longer supporters. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. So question is, do you think Trump's base will be enough to propel him to victory in all the states he needs to win?
No. His base isn't big enough to carry him to another win by itself.
the only way Trump can re-play 2016 is to hope the Democrats will field another Hillary Clinton against him.
Clinton herself won't run again; she announced she would not run a few weeks ago.
Everything else is completely open to all speculation at the moment, and until speculation can be more focused after the primaries and all the other weeding-out narrows the Democratic field, even my belief Trump's base cannot win it for him is speculative.
There's the possibility that his base may be the largest voting bloc that exists in 2020. If that comes about, then Trump would win, as no one else even has a predictable voting bloc right now.
but you're right, bawac. Trump is Trump. Those who love him now won't be hating him next year, and those who hate him now won't be loving him. Your predictions on the possible turnouts and changes is as good as another I've seen.
No matter how strong his support his among his base, one thing that Trump has going against him going into the 2020 election is his strong disapproval rating.....
It's better than Obama's, and Obama was re-elected. Why? He was pitted against the Mitt Romney. The one person capiable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against the hapless community agitator. It was just as bad as the Dems nominating that horse's ass Kerry to beat the very unpopular GW Bush.
i.e. Until we know who Trump will be running against, these sorts of predictions are mostly meaningless.
It's better than Obama's, and Obama was re-elected. Why? He was pitted against the Mitt Romney. The one person capiable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against the hapless community agitator. It was just as bad as the Dems nominating that horse's ass Kerry to beat the very unpopular GW Bush.
i.e. Until we know who Trump will be running against, these sorts of predictions are mostly meaningless.
Did you not read my entire post? I addressed this.
Obama was not as despised by the opposing party in 2012 as Trump is today and neither was Bush. To be fair though, neither incumbent had the enthusiastic support going into their second election that Trump has either.
But at the end of the day, there will be fewer undecideds in 2020 than in past elections. Most people angry about political correctness and the SJW aspect of the Democratic Party are already Trump supporters.
We’ll see off this forum I personally have friends who voted for him. The The majority of my friends voted for Bernie last time, they didn’t vote for Hillary. Those friends that did vote for Trump really disappointed with him. Some of the things I’ve watched online it’s the same thing, his voters have changed thier minds about voting for him again.
It’s going to be close for sure no doubt about that. With Hillary not running Bernie I think will take the win. The conservatives don’t have anyone else that I have heard that’s running besides Trump. so the conservatives are putting all on thier money on Trump to win.
Trump is he’s own worst enemy and people are seeing it finally. I see Bernie taking the win even though it’s going to be close. At least I hope he wins.
We’ll see off this forum I personally have friends who voted for him. The The majority of my friends voted for Bernie last time, they didn’t vote for Hillary. Those friends that did vote for Trump really disappointed with him. Some of the things I’ve watched online it’s the same thing, his voters have changed thier minds about voting for him again.
There were a lot of people who hated both candidates and voted Trump because they hated him slightly less. These are the voters who likely won't be voting for Trump again in 2020. It's unlikely any Hillary voters in 2016 will be voting for Trump in 2020. There will probably be a few but not enough to really make a difference. Then there's Gary Johnson voters who could go either way. They tend to be pro-Trump on trade, guns, and immigration but break with him on social issues. Which way will they go?
Quote:
Originally Posted by reed067
It’s going to be close for sure no doubt about that. With Hillary not running Bernie I think will take the win. The conservatives don’t have anyone else that I have heard that’s running besides Trump. so the conservatives are putting all on thier money on Trump to win.
Trump is he’s own worst enemy and people are seeing it finally. I see Bernie taking the win even though it’s going to be close. At least I hope he wins.
I'm unsure about Bernie at the current moment. I think he could have won easily in 2016 had he been the nominee but I don't think 2020 is as favorable for him.
I couldn't comprehend him getting elected in the first place. I won't make that mistake again.
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There were a lot of people who hated both candidates and voted Trump because they hated him slightly less. These are the voters who likely won't be voting for Trump again in 2020. It's unlikely any Hillary voters in 2016 will be voting for Trump in 2020. There will probably be a few but not enough to really make a difference. Then there's Gary Johnson voters who could go either way. They tend to be pro-Trump on trade, guns, and immigration but break with him on social issues. Which way will they go?
I'm unsure about Bernie at the current moment. I think he could have won easily in 2016 had he been the nominee but I don't think 2020 is as favorable for him.
Didn’t know Johnson was running again. Bernie’s raised some serious money in a very short time and again it might depend on whose running with him. Then again Bernie always seems to make a strong show, yet somehow ends up losing. Whatever the outcome it’s going to be close. Not to mention interesting.
There's disapproval and then there's disapproval. As I Democrat, I "disapproved" of many things Obama did. Highly, highly disapproved. In fact, I was furious. But that doesn't begin to compare with the overall contempt I feel for the ignorant, lying, bullying, bigoted, greedy, predatory, self-aggrandizing, amoral, vulgar presence of Trump, who is offensive to any decent American.
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so the conservatives are putting all on thier money on Trump to win.
