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Might be a slight benefit to the GOP, but less than in the past. While there will likely be more Democratic states losing seats and Republican ones gaining, it is a bit of a mix of both. Also looking into where some of the losses and gains in these states are will have a bit of an impact. Even in the Republican states that are gaining population and will gain seats, many of these gains will be in the metro areas which are trending Democratic, and many of the losses in the states losing population are from the more rural Republican parts of the state. Of course once you add state Legislatures and Gerrymandering into the mix it can bring an extra wrinkle. We will, however have a clearer picture of what states are gaining and which ones are losing in a couple weeks (we have the estimates now, which gives us a general idea but the state population Census data should be released in two weeks)
This can happen if Democratic states that control of redistricting is in the hands of Democrats do not eliminate many Republican seats, to make up for the loss.
Republican Congressman Ted Budd of North Carolina's 13th district has announced he will not seek re-election and instead run for Senate. Budd was first elected in 2016 and serving in his 3rd term. The district generally covers portions of central North Carolina combing some suburbs and exurbs of Greensboro to some more rural further out areas to the northeast of the Greensboro metro and is heavily Republican. Redistricting might change the landscape of the district somewhat, but will likely remain heavily Republican.
Democratic Congresswoman Cheri Bustos of Illinois's 17th district has announced she will not seek re-election. Bustos is in her 5th term after first being elected in 2012. The district primarily covers portions of NW Illinois from Rockford to the Illinois side of the Quad Cities region. Traditionally the district has been Democratic, but has trended Republican in recent years and one of the few districts that Obama won twice, that Trump won twice as well. Illinois is posted to lose a seat in redistricting, but it is too early to tell what if any impact redistricting will have on this district
The Special Election in TX-6 is being held today. This is for former Republican Congressman Ron Wright's seat, Wright passed away from COVID-19 earlier this year. This is a jungle primary with 23 total candidates that is almost certainly going to a runoff with the top two candidates regardless of party advancing (almost certain no one receives the 50% needed to avoid a runoff)
Census results of seat changes
The Following will Gain seats
Colorado
Florida
Montana
North Carolina
Oregon
Texas 2
The Following will lose a seat
California
Illinois
Michigan
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Open Senate Seats Five Senators have announced they will not seek re-election. All five are Republican
Republican Open Senate Seats
1. Alabama- Richard Shelby
Trump 62.0-36.6, Trump 62.1-34.4, Romney 60.6-38.4
2. Missouri- Roy Blunt
Trump 56.7-41.3, Trump 56.4-37.9, Romney 53.6-44.3,
3. North Carolina- Richard Burr
Trump 49.9-48.6, Trump 49.8-46.2, Romney 50.4-48.4
4. Ohio- Rob Portman
Trump 53.2-45.2, Trump 51.3-43.2, Obama 50.6-47.6
5. Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey
Biden 49.9-48.7, Trump 48.2-47.5, Obama 52.0-46.6
Open House Seats Eleven members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election, five are Democrats, six are Republican. These elections will be held under new Congressional lines
Republican Open Seats in the House
1. AL-05 Mo Brooks- Running for Senate
Trump 62.7-35.7, Trump 64.7-31.3, Romney 63.9-34.9
2. GA-10 Jody Hice- Running for Secretary of State
Trump 59.6-39.2, Trump 61.3-35.8, Romney 62.5-36.3
3. NY-1 Lee Zeldin- Running for Governor
Trump 51.5-47.3, Trump 54.5-42.2, Obama 49.6-49.1
There are currently five upcoming special Elections. Three in Democratic held seats , two in Republican held seats. These will be held under the current lines
Special Elections in Democratic House Seats
1. FL-20 Alcee Hastings- Died April 6th 2021- Special Election TBD
Biden 77.3-22.1, Clinton 80.2-18.1, Obama 82.5-17.1
2. NM-01 Deb Haaland- resigned March 16th 2021, Special Election June 1st 2021
Biden 60.2-37.4, Clinton 51.6-35.1, Obama 55.3-39.6
3. OH-11 Marcia Fudge resigned March 10th 2021, Special Election November 2nd 2021
Biden 79.8-19.2, Clinton 80.5-17.0, Obama 82.7-16.5
Special Elections in Republican House Seats
1. OH-15 Steve Stivers- Resigning May 16th 2021- Special Election November 2nd 2021
Trump 56.3-43.2, Trump 55.3-39.9, Romney 51.9-46.3
2. TX-06 Ron Wright- Died Feb 7th 2021, Special Election May 1st 2021, Runoff date if required not confirmed
Trump 50.8-47.8, Trump 54.2-41.9, Romney 57.9-40.8
[b]There has been two Special Elections so far, one in a Republican district and one in a Democratic one, each side won the seat they held./B]
1. LA-05 Luke Letlow- Died December 29th 2020, Special Election March 20 2021,This was a Republican Hold as Republican Julie Letlow won in a Jungle Primary with 64.9% of the vote avoiding a runoff
2. LA-05 Cedric Richmond, resigned Jan 15th 2021- This was a Democratic Hold Democrat Tony Carter won in and all Democratic runoff with 55.3% of the vote.
Biden 75.3-23.0, Clinton 74.6-22.2, Obama 75.8-22.8[/quote]
This can happen if Democratic states that control of redistricting is in the hands of Democrats do not eliminate many Republican seats, to make up for the loss.
Democrats have much less control of entire states. If you look at the states Biden won- Michigan, Ca, and a couple of others have moved to non-partison commissions. NH, Az, and Ga have R control of the governorships and Legilatures. Wi and Pa have Rs controlling both house of the legislature in spite of D Governors. Mn has the D Governor and House but R senate. The D Governor of NC (the closest Trump state) does not get a say in reapportionment.
So Republicans have a huge advantage in terms of drawing favorable maps.
Democrats have much less control of entire states. If you look at the states Biden won- Michigan, Ca, and a couple of others have moved to non-partison commissions. NH, Az, and Ga have R control of the governorships and Legilatures. Wi and Pa have Rs controlling both house of the legislature in spite of D Governors. Mn has the D Governor and House but R senate. The D Governor of NC (the closest Trump state) does not get a say in reapportionment.
So Republicans have a huge advantage in terms of drawing favorable maps.
The GOP does to a point, but might not be as much as in the past. Many of the states the GOP has control of redistricting are already gerrymandered in their favor. They can tie up a few seats that have slipped away or trending away from them by turning some of the suburban districts into suburban/rural hybirds. They certainly still hold an advantage, but how they can use that advantage might be a bit less than they were able to use to their advantage following 2010.
The TX-06 Special Election will advance to an all Republican runoff. Republican Susan Wright, the widow of former Congressman Ron Wright led all candidates with 19.21% of the vote. Republican Jake Ellzey edged out Democrat Jana Sanchez 13.85-13.39 for the 2nd slot in the runoff. No date for the runoff has been announced yet, but could be as early as May 24th.
Census results of seat changes
The Following will Gain seats
Colorado
Florida
Montana
North Carolina
Oregon
Texas 2
The Following will lose a seat
California
Illinois
Michigan
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Open Senate Seats Five Senators have announced they will not seek re-election. All five are Republican
Republican Open Senate Seats
1. Alabama- Richard Shelby
Trump 62.0-36.6, Trump 62.1-34.4, Romney 60.6-38.4
2. Missouri- Roy Blunt
Trump 56.7-41.3, Trump 56.4-37.9, Romney 53.6-44.3,
3. North Carolina- Richard Burr
Trump 49.9-48.6, Trump 49.8-46.2, Romney 50.4-48.4
4. Ohio- Rob Portman
Trump 53.2-45.2, Trump 51.3-43.2, Obama 50.6-47.6
5. Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey
Biden 49.9-48.7, Trump 48.2-47.5, Obama 52.0-46.6
Open House Seats Eleven members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election, five are Democrats, six are Republican. These elections will be held under new Congressional lines
Republican Open Seats in the House
1. AL-05 Mo Brooks- Running for Senate
Trump 62.7-35.7, Trump 64.7-31.3, Romney 63.9-34.9
2. GA-10 Jody Hice- Running for Secretary of State
Trump 59.6-39.2, Trump 61.3-35.8, Romney 62.5-36.3
3. NY-1 Lee Zeldin- Running for Governor
Trump 51.5-47.3, Trump 54.5-42.2, Obama 49.6-49.1
There are currently five upcoming special Elections. Three in Democratic held seats , two in Republican held seats. These will be held under the current lines
Special Elections in Democratic House Seats
1. FL-20 Alcee Hastings- Died April 6th 2021- Special Election TBD
Biden 77.3-22.1, Clinton 80.2-18.1, Obama 82.5-17.1
2. NM-01 Deb Haaland- resigned March 16th 2021, Special Election June 1st 2021
Biden 60.2-37.4, Clinton 51.6-35.1, Obama 55.3-39.6
3. OH-11 Marcia Fudge resigned March 10th 2021, Special Election November 2nd 2021
Biden 79.8-19.2, Clinton 80.5-17.0, Obama 82.7-16.5
Special Elections in Republican House Seats
1. OH-15 Steve Stivers- Resigning May 16th 2021- Special Election November 2nd 2021
Trump 56.3-43.2, Trump 55.3-39.9, Romney 51.9-46.3
2. TX-06 Ron Wright- Died Feb 7th 2021, Special Election May 1st 2021, Runoff between Republican Susan Wright and Republican Jake Ellzey- this will be a Republican Hold
Trump 50.8-47.8, Trump 54.2-41.9, Romney 57.9-40.8
[b]There has been two Special Elections so far, one in a Republican district and one in a Democratic one, each side won the seat they held./B]
1. LA-05 Luke Letlow- Died December 29th 2020, Special Election March 20 2021,This was a Republican Hold as Republican Julie Letlow won in a Jungle Primary with 64.9% of the vote avoiding a runoff
2. LA-05 Cedric Richmond, resigned Jan 15th 2021- This was a Democratic Hold Democrat Tony Carter won in and all Democratic runoff with 55.3% of the vote.
Biden 75.3-23.0, Clinton 74.6-22.2, Obama 75.8-22.8
Democratic Congressman Charlie Crist of Florida's 13th district has announced he will not seek re-election and instead run for Governor. Crist previously served as Governor as a Republican and in his 3rd tern in Congress. The 13th district currently covers the St Pete area and leans Democratic, though not heavily so.
The Special Election in Florida's 20th district has been scheduled for January 11th 2022. Lawsuits have been filed to move the Special Election up.
Census results of seat changes
The Following will Gain seats
Colorado
Florida
Montana
North Carolina
Oregon
Texas 2
The Following will lose a seat
California
Illinois
Michigan
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Open Senate Seats Five Senators have announced they will not seek re-election. All five are Republican
Republican Open Senate Seats
1. Alabama- Richard Shelby
Trump 62.0-36.6, Trump 62.1-34.4, Romney 60.6-38.4
2. Missouri- Roy Blunt
Trump 56.7-41.3, Trump 56.4-37.9, Romney 53.6-44.3,
3. North Carolina- Richard Burr
Trump 49.9-48.6, Trump 49.8-46.2, Romney 50.4-48.4
4. Ohio- Rob Portman
Trump 53.2-45.2, Trump 51.3-43.2, Obama 50.6-47.6
5. Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey
Biden 49.9-48.7, Trump 48.2-47.5, Obama 52.0-46.6
Open House Seats Twelve members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election, six are Democrats, six are Republican. These elections will be held under new Congressional lines
Republican Open Seats in the House
1. AL-05 Mo Brooks- Running for Senate
Trump 62.7-35.7, Trump 64.7-31.3, Romney 63.9-34.9
2. GA-10 Jody Hice- Running for Secretary of State
Trump 59.6-39.2, Trump 61.3-35.8, Romney 62.5-36.3
3. NY-1 Lee Zeldin- Running for Governor
Trump 51.5-47.3, Trump 54.5-42.2, Obama 49.6-49.1
There are currently five upcoming special Elections. Three in Democratic held seats , two in Republican held seats. These will be held under the current lines
Special Elections in Democratic House Seats
1. FL-20 Alcee Hastings- Died April 6th 2021- Special Election January 11th 2022
Biden 77.3-22.1, Clinton 80.2-18.1, Obama 82.5-17.1
2. NM-01 Deb Haaland- resigned March 16th 2021, Special Election June 1st 2021
Biden 60.2-37.4, Clinton 51.6-35.1, Obama 55.3-39.6
3. OH-11 Marcia Fudge resigned March 10th 2021, Special Election November 2nd 2021
Biden 79.8-19.2, Clinton 80.5-17.0, Obama 82.7-16.5
Special Elections in Republican House Seats
1. OH-15 Steve Stivers- Resigning May 16th 2021- Special Election November 2nd 2021
Trump 56.3-43.2, Trump 55.3-39.9, Romney 51.9-46.3
2. TX-06 Ron Wright- Died Feb 7th 2021, Special Election May 1st 2021, Runoff between Republican Susan Wright and Republican Jake Ellzey- this will be a Republican Hold
Trump 50.8-47.8, Trump 54.2-41.9, Romney 57.9-40.8
[b]There has been two Special Elections so far, one in a Republican district and one in a Democratic one, each side won the seat they held./B]
1. LA-05 Luke Letlow- Died December 29th 2020, Special Election March 20 2021,This was a Republican Hold as Republican Julie Letlow won in a Jungle Primary with 64.9% of the vote avoiding a runoff
2. LA-05 Cedric Richmond, resigned Jan 15th 2021- This was a Democratic Hold Democrat Tony Carter won in and all Democratic runoff with 55.3% of the vote.
Biden 75.3-23.0, Clinton 74.6-22.2, Obama 75.8-22.8
Status:
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Location: Pine Grove,AL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
Democratic Congressman Charlie Crist of Florida's 13th district has announced he will not seek re-election and instead run for Governor. Crist previously served as Governor as a Republican and in his 3rd tern in Congress. The 13th district currently covers the St Pete area and leans Democratic, though not heavily so.
The Special Election in Florida's 20th district has been scheduled for January 11th 2022. Lawsuits have been filed to move the Special Election up.
does ythis work the same way Rubio for President worked ?
A bit early for this thread, as we do not have all the House and Senate races for this year decided yet, but with two Senators who have previously stated they aren't seeking re-election I figured I might as well start this.
Once we have the final #'s I will break out the states by #'s for President, will do the same for the seats in the House, though we will not know what the 2022 districts for awhile. With reapportionment coming along with redistricting we will likely see more open seats.
Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina has announced he will not seek re-election in 2022. Burr was first elected in 2004 and is in his 3rd term in the Senate. North Carolina is a swing state that slightly leans Republican This will likely be a competitive race.
Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania has announced he will not seek re-election. Pat Toomey was first elected in 2010 and serving in his 2nd term. Like North Carolina Pennsylvania is a swing state, though slightly leans Democratic. This will likely be a competitive race.
Open Senate Seats
Two Senators have announced they will not seek re-election. Both are Republican
The all GOP Special Election Runoff will be held on May 24th
Census results of seat changes
The Following will Gain seats
Colorado
Florida
Montana
North Carolina
Oregon
Texas 2
The Following will lose a seat
California
Illinois
Michigan
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Open Senate Seats Five Senators have announced they will not seek re-election. All five are Republican
Republican Open Senate Seats
1. Alabama- Richard Shelby
Trump 62.0-36.6, Trump 62.1-34.4, Romney 60.6-38.4
2. Missouri- Roy Blunt
Trump 56.7-41.3, Trump 56.4-37.9, Romney 53.6-44.3,
3. North Carolina- Richard Burr
Trump 49.9-48.6, Trump 49.8-46.2, Romney 50.4-48.4
4. Ohio- Rob Portman
Trump 53.2-45.2, Trump 51.3-43.2, Obama 50.6-47.6
5. Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey
Biden 49.9-48.7, Trump 48.2-47.5, Obama 52.0-46.6
Open House Seats Twelve members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election, six are Democrats, six are Republican. These elections will be held under new Congressional lines
Republican Open Seats in the House
1. AL-05 Mo Brooks- Running for Senate
Trump 62.7-35.7, Trump 64.7-31.3, Romney 63.9-34.9
2. GA-10 Jody Hice- Running for Secretary of State
Trump 59.6-39.2, Trump 61.3-35.8, Romney 62.5-36.3
3. NY-1 Lee Zeldin- Running for Governor
Trump 51.5-47.3, Trump 54.5-42.2, Obama 49.6-49.1
There are currently five upcoming special Elections. Three in Democratic held seats , two in Republican held seats. These will be held under the current lines
Special Elections in Democratic House Seats
1. FL-20 Alcee Hastings- Died April 6th 2021- Special Election January 11th 2022
Biden 77.3-22.1, Clinton 80.2-18.1, Obama 82.5-17.1
2. NM-01 Deb Haaland- resigned March 16th 2021, Special Election June 1st 2021
Biden 60.2-37.4, Clinton 51.6-35.1, Obama 55.3-39.6
3. OH-11 Marcia Fudge resigned March 10th 2021, Special Election November 2nd 2021
Biden 79.8-19.2, Clinton 80.5-17.0, Obama 82.7-16.5
Special Elections in Republican House Seats
1. OH-15 Steve Stivers- Resigning May 16th 2021- Special Election November 2nd 2021
Trump 56.3-43.2, Trump 55.3-39.9, Romney 51.9-46.3
2. TX-06 Ron Wright- Died Feb 7th 2021, Special Election May 1st 2021, Runoff May 24th between Republican Susan Wright and Republican Jake Ellzey this will be a Republican Hold
Trump 50.8-47.8, Trump 54.2-41.9, Romney 57.9-40.8
There has been two Special Elections so far, one in a Republican district and one in a Democratic one, each side won the seat they held.
1. LA-05 Luke Letlow- Died December 29th 2020, Special Election March 20 2021,This was a Republican Hold as Republican Julie Letlow won in a Jungle Primary with 64.9% of the vote avoiding a runoff
2. LA-05 Cedric Richmond, resigned Jan 15th 2021- This was a Democratic Hold Democrat Tony Carter won in and all Democratic runoff with 55.3% of the vote.
Biden 75.3-23.0, Clinton 74.6-22.2, Obama 75.8-22.8
Updating the Special Election Runoff date for the all GOP runoff in Texas 6th district to July 27th
Upcoming Special Election for NM-01 is Tuesday June 1st
Democratic Congresswoman Val Demings of Florida's 10th district has stated she intends to run for Senate against Marco Rubio, which would open up her current seat, however no official announcement has been made so leaving that off the list below for now.
Census results of seat changes
The Following will Gain seats
Colorado
Florida
Montana
North Carolina
Oregon
Texas 2
The Following will lose a seat
California
Illinois
Michigan
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Open Senate Seats Five Senators have announced they will not seek re-election. All five are Republican
Republican Open Senate Seats
1. Alabama- Richard Shelby
Trump 62.0-36.6, Trump 62.1-34.4, Romney 60.6-38.4
2. Missouri- Roy Blunt
Trump 56.7-41.3, Trump 56.4-37.9, Romney 53.6-44.3,
3. North Carolina- Richard Burr
Trump 49.9-48.6, Trump 49.8-46.2, Romney 50.4-48.4
4. Ohio- Rob Portman
Trump 53.2-45.2, Trump 51.3-43.2, Obama 50.6-47.6
5. Pennsylvania- Pat Toomey
Biden 49.9-48.7, Trump 48.2-47.5, Obama 52.0-46.6
Open House Seats Twelve members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election, six are Democrats, six are Republican. These elections will be held under new Congressional lines
Republican Open Seats in the House
1. AL-05 Mo Brooks- Running for Senate
Trump 62.7-35.7, Trump 64.7-31.3, Romney 63.9-34.9
2. GA-10 Jody Hice- Running for Secretary of State
Trump 59.6-39.2, Trump 61.3-35.8, Romney 62.5-36.3
3. NY-1 Lee Zeldin- Running for Governor
Trump 51.5-47.3, Trump 54.5-42.2, Obama 49.6-49.1
There are currently five upcoming special Elections. Three in Democratic held seats , two in Republican held seats. These will be held under the current lines
Special Elections in Democratic House Seats
1. FL-20 Alcee Hastings- Died April 6th 2021- Special Election January 11th 2022
Biden 77.3-22.1, Clinton 80.2-18.1, Obama 82.5-17.1
2. NM-01 Deb Haaland- resigned March 16th 2021, Special Election June 1st 2021
Biden 60.2-37.4, Clinton 51.6-35.1, Obama 55.3-39.6
3. OH-11 Marcia Fudge resigned March 10th 2021, Special Election November 2nd 2021
Biden 79.8-19.2, Clinton 80.5-17.0, Obama 82.7-16.5
Special Elections in Republican House Seats
1. OH-15 Steve Stivers- Resigned May 16th 2021- Special Election November 2nd 2021
Trump 56.3-43.2, Trump 55.3-39.9, Romney 51.9-46.3
2. TX-06 Ron Wright- Died Feb 7th 2021, Special Election May 1st 2021, Runoff July 27th between Republican Susan Wright and Republican Jake Ellzey this will be a Republican Hold
Trump 50.8-47.8, Trump 54.2-41.9, Romney 57.9-40.8
There has been two Special Elections finalized so far, one in a Republican district and one in a Democratic one, each side won the seat they held.
1. LA-05 Luke Letlow- Died December 29th 2020, Special Election March 20 2021,This was a Republican Hold as Republican Julie Letlow won in a Jungle Primary with 64.9% of the vote avoiding a runoff
2. LA-05 Cedric Richmond, resigned Jan 15th 2021- This was a Democratic Hold Democrat Tony Carter won in and all Democratic runoff with 55.3% of the vote.
Biden 75.3-23.0, Clinton 74.6-22.2, Obama 75.8-22.8
Senate is currently 50-50 with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris as a tiebreaker giving the Democrats a Majority
The House is currently 219-211 in favor of the Democrats, with 5 vacancies.
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