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The strength of recent Democratic candidates since the Dobbs decision is going to put more states into play. Today, FL approved a six week abortion ban, but that goes to voters.
FL gets portrayed as this extreme Republican state, but it really isn't. I'm from an 80%+ red county in one of the reddest of red states. An abortion decision won't change anything here, but it can definitely change opinions in more affluent and suburban areas of FL. There's probably nowhere in FL that is as extreme politically as where I am in small town Tennessee. DeSantis has postured the state into something the voters probably aren't.
Keep in mind Trump only has to lose a small sliver of his 2016 base to lose. I stood outside in the rain for an hour and a half to vote for him in the IN Republican primary back then. I didn't vote for him then. I won't vote for him today. He's likely losing some small amount of his 2016 support with his recent actions. He may be deepening support among those who already voted for him, but they already had his vote.
There is some segment of the population out there who loved him in 2016 who won't vote for him today. I don't see him growing his base more than he's lost from his original base.
Clueless. You don’t think Biden has lost support. You’re in for a rude awakening in a few months.
I think Trump is currently ahead but it's much too early to declare a definite winner at this point. One unusual aspect of this year's election is that both major party nominees are running for a second term, and have below par popularity. Biden would likely be dead in the water running against a Republican who doesn't have Trump's baggage, given his low approvals. Many voters do not like either candidate but will ultimately choose one or the other (with some defecting to third parties or not voting at all), and not always for the reasons that committed partisans on either side expect.
In the unlikely event the 2024 state map is the same as 2020, due to reapportionment the electoral college numbers will be closer. Biden would win 303-235 instead of 306-232 as red states as a whole registered faster growth than blue states in the 2020 census. So even a winning scenario for Biden (and sorry #MAGA folks - it is still possible) should involve him obtaining fewer electoral votes than last time. North Carolina is the only Trump 2020 state that has any chance at all of flipping to blue, and it probably won't happen.
The strength of recent Democratic candidates since the Dobbs decision is going to put more states into play. Today, FL approved a six week abortion ban, but that goes to voters.
FL gets portrayed as this extreme Republican state, but it really isn't. I'm from an 80%+ red county in one of the reddest of red states. An abortion decision won't change anything here, but it can definitely change opinions in more affluent and suburban areas of FL. There's probably nowhere in FL that is as extreme politically as where I am in small town Tennessee. DeSantis has postured the state into something the voters probably aren't.
Keep in mind Trump only has to lose a small sliver of his 2016 base to lose. I stood outside in the rain for an hour and a half to vote for him in the IN Republican primary back then. I didn't vote for him then. I won't vote for him today. He's likely losing some small amount of his 2016 support with his recent actions. He may be deepening support among those who already voted for him, but they already had his vote.
There is some segment of the population out there who loved him in 2016 who won't vote for him today. I don't see him growing his base more than he's lost from his original base.
What "strength" you are talking about with Joe and Kamala, both have horrible numbers. Now do Biden. Don't be shy. You think Biden will keep his whole base from 2020 with 39% approval. Yeah, you sat in the rain for Trump in 2016 but will vote for Biden in 2024 and repeat Democrat talking points. I call bull when I see it.
Tell us how going from 50% approval in 2020 to 39% today will cost Joe when he barely won 25 states in 2020 and 4 of 'em by less than 1%. You don't think losing -10 plus isn't costing him states where he barely won by less than 1% in 2020 that decided the EC. You ignore the fact that Joe is losing on all the main issues for the election from economy, inflation, crime, border and foreign policy but you only bring abortion and that Joe will win easily but you waited in line in the rain to vote for Trump in 2016 and now are a Biden voter, yeah right.
What voters are Floridians? They not Biden or Kamala voters or Charlie Crist voters that's for sure, so you lost me with trying to call DeSantis extremist. Anybody that is a threat to the Democrat party and their liberal socialist agenda is an "extremist"
Any President seeking re-election with a 39% approval and a very old age with memory issues is not going to have an "easy" re-election. Regardless of party. Saying that is either dishonest or a very fanatic of the party.
The strength of recent Democratic candidates since the Dobbs decision is going to put more states into play. Today, FL approved a six week abortion ban, but that goes to voters.
FL gets portrayed as this extreme Republican state, but it really isn't. I'm from an 80%+ red county in one of the reddest of red states. An abortion decision won't change anything here, but it can definitely change opinions in more affluent and suburban areas of FL. There's probably nowhere in FL that is as extreme politically as where I am in small town Tennessee. DeSantis has postured the state into something the voters probably aren't.
Keep in mind Trump only has to lose a small sliver of his 2016 base to lose. I stood outside in the rain for an hour and a half to vote for him in the IN Republican primary back then. I didn't vote for him then. I won't vote for him today. He's likely losing some small amount of his 2016 support with his recent actions. He may be deepening support among those who already voted for him, but they already had his vote.
There is some segment of the population out there who loved him in 2016 who won't vote for him today. I don't see him growing his base more than he's lost from his original base.
That's how I see this playing out again Biden winning.
FL gets portrayed as this extreme Republican state, but it really isn't. .
Florida is doing what Ohio has. Larger red margin, one POTUS race after another. Its perfect for the GOP, as it stays close enough for the DNC to waste money and time trying.
Btw, I know many 2020 Biden voters who will never vote for him again. Bidenflation has harmed them, and they have hated everything literally his admin has done from day 1. In a race with two who each had a term, BOTH will have some who voted for them, but will not now. Yes, Carters poll numbers are like biden's now. How did Jimmy do? Oh yes, he was crushed.
You know Joe is in trouble when his voters keep repeating the same talking points memo and bring abortion as the "issue" while ignore the top topics on the election especially the big one, the economy. They repeat his state of the union speech. It's amusing to read. "Biden wins easily". LOL.
Btw, I know many 2020 Biden voters who will never vote for him again. Bidenflation has harmed them, and they have hated everything literally his admin has done from day 1. In a race with two who each had a term, BOTH will have some who voted for them, but will not now. Yes, Carters poll numbers are like biden's now. How did Jimmy do? Oh yes, he was crushed.
Some Biden's voters here are just in denial. They refuse to see his unpopularity. TDS does that to people.
What "strength" you are talking about with Joe and Kamala, both have horrible numbers. Now do Biden. Don't be shy. You think Biden will keep his whole base from 2020 with 39% approval. Yeah, you sat in the rain for Trump in 2016 but will vote for Biden in 2024 and repeat Democrat talking points. I call bull when I see it.
Tell us how going from 50% approval in 2020 to 39% today will cost Joe when he barely won 25 states in 2020 and 4 of 'em by less than 1%. You don't think losing -10 plus isn't costing him states where he barely won by less than 1% in 2020 that decided the EC. You ignore the fact that Joe is losing on all the main issues for the election from economy, inflation, crime, border and foreign policy but you only bring abortion and that Joe will win easily but you waited in line in the rain to vote for Trump in 2016 and now are a Biden voter, yeah right.
What voters are Floridians? They not Biden or Kamala voters or Charlie Crist voters that's for sure, so you lost me with trying to call DeSantis extremist. Anybody that is a threat to the Democrat party and their liberal socialist agenda is an "extremist"
Any President seeking re-election with a 39% approval and a very old age with memory issues is not going to have an "easy" re-election. Regardless of party. Saying that is either dishonest or a very fanatic of the party.
The approval rating really doesn't matter. I generally approve of how Biden is doing, but there is still a lot of inflation, especially in housing, that I'm not comfortable with.
Do I think Trump would do any better with the economy, inflation, crime, etc.? Not really - maybe on immigration only.
I'm from a deep red area in one of the reddest states. Crime here is incredibly high. Police here are extremely aggressive. In TN, you can go to jail for thirty days for running a red-light or having a taillight out. This county has no problems in taking someone to jail for the taillight out. Drug abuse, public intoxication, and drug related domestic and property crimes are incredibly high. This county is the logical endgame for the MAGA law enforcement crowd. It's a bad place to live.
I voted for Trump in the primary. I voted for him in 2016 over Hillary. I didn't vote for him in 2020, and won't vote for him in 2024.
Do I think FL leans Republican? Sure, but it's not as crazy as Tennessee. It's potentially in play.
Does Biden have memory issues? Maybe, but it's not like Trump appears well either. Both are too damn old.
I wish we had a different choice, but of these two, not so good choices, I'll vote for Biden.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960
Florida is doing what Ohio has. Larger red margin, one POTUS race after another. Its perfect for the GOP, as it stays close enough for the DNC to waste money and time trying.
Btw, I know many 2020 Biden voters who will never vote for him again. Bidenflation has harmed them, and they have hated everything literally his admin has done from day 1. In a race with two who each had a term, BOTH will have some who voted for them, but will not now. Yes, Carters poll numbers are like biden's now. How did Jimmy do? Oh yes, he was crushed.
Trump started the COVID-aid spigots. Biden continued that. In hindsight, it was a bad policy. I don't think Trump would have done an about face on it either.
The poll numbers don't matter that much. In a binary choice between Biden and Trump, Biden just has to be better than the other guy. I would wager there are a lot of people not very happy with Biden who will end up holding their nose and voting for them because they dislike Trump more.
Usually it would, and Joe's disapproval rating would sink him.
However, his opponent is the most disapproved president in history. The only president who people hated more than DJ was Nixon AFTER watergate - at the 73 inauguration Dick had just 257% disapproval (compared to Joe's 52-55% and DJ's 55-58%)
No modern president has been reelected with a negative net rating. Carter was net negative basically all of 1980. GHWB was net negative for all of 92. DJ was net negative for his entire presidency. Joe's been negative since 227 days after January 20, 2021.
Which of course doesn't matter because he's a bad candidate against the worst candidate. We're truly in south park, turd sandwich vs. giant douche
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