Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Democrat is riding high in two polls but history offers cautionary tales
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- On the face of it, these are good times for Barack Obama. But despite riding dizzyingly high in two new polls, the Democratic White House hopeful shouldn't get cocky. History offers a few cautionary tales about polls and winning the presidency.
To be sure, Obama has reason to be happy this week. On Wednesday, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll showed the Illinois senator leading his Republican rival John McCain by 12 points, 49% to 37%. Last Friday, a Newsweek poll gave Obama an even bigger lead of 15 points. In both polls, Obama scores better than McCain on issues related to voters' top campaign 2008 priority: the economy.
So it's smooth sailing for Obama from the Senate floor to the White House, right? Not so fast, say experts.
"Where a candidate is in the summer certainly is not predictive necessarily of where they will be in November," says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll.
I don't think Barack knows how not to be cocky. It's in his DNA ... he can't help it.
Meantime, it's very early in the polls. I heard yesterday that the polls today stand almost identical to Kerry's lead at this time in the Bush/Kerry election. So.....
Many of these polls are strongly skewed. The LA Times poll even admitted their poll included a majority of Democrats. What sort of poll is that?
I think bily4 just may have his prediction the wrong way around. I really look forward to the debates. But I'll be particularly interested to see whether only softball questions go to Obama.
I hope Obama stays ahead in the polls and stays cocky. Like the girl said, he doesn't know how to be any other way. I also hope the election finds the polls to be wrong. The election is the one that counts. We often answer the opposite of how we will vote when we are called by these people. It is none of their business how we plan to vote in November. If they are wrong enough times, maybe they will get mud all over their faces and stop invading the voter's privacy.
I don't think Barack knows how not to be cocky. It's in his DNA ... he can't help it.
Meantime, it's very early in the polls. I heard yesterday that the polls today stand almost identical to Kerry's lead at this time in the Bush/Kerry election. So.....
Many of these polls are strongly skewed. The LA Times poll even admitted their poll included a majority of Democrats. What sort of poll is that?
I think bily4 just may have his prediction the wrong way around. I really look forward to the debates. But I'll be particularly interested to see whether only softball questions go to Obama.
Good perception. Obama and narcissism seem to be synonymous.
obama has been being cocky for about 46 years now..
And this is inherently a problem? Seems to me that people who are already biased against Obama would blur the line between cockiness and assertiveneses.
Well, now, because I'm feeling playful and just because I can, let's take a look at the definitions of these two words.
Assertive means "self-assured, aggressive, emphatic"
Cocky is defined as "overly self-assertive or self-confident".
So to be "cocky" is to be more self-assertive than one should actually be. It's self-assuredness in the extreme. This is why people who are assertive walk a very thin line ... cross over that and you're suddenly obnoxious ... not a good thing. It's the very blurring of the line that makes it unattractive.
The Obamas cross over that line. And I think as the months unfold, that will become more apparent.
I notice how they only mention the 2 polls that are wildly skewed.
The way I look at it, the polls say it is basically tied. How can that be? What with an unpopular president, an unpopular war, an economy on the verge of collapse, same with the housing market, energy prices through the roof - and McCain is tied at this point? All the pundits and experts say this is a locked-up democrat year - then what is going on?
It means the electorate has some serious doubts about Obama, just as they have about liberals in the last two elections. His policies are no different than your run-of-the-mill tax and spend, weak democrat. They've put up the same candidate that the voters have rejected before - the only difference is he's black.
I'm also surprised that McCain is doing as well as he seems to be, considering THE BASE is not firmly behind him yet.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
