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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
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Last edited by gallowsCalibrator; 08-20-2008 at 07:33 AM..
A case in point is one of the bigger misses of recent primaries: the Reuters/Zogby poll in California, which showed Mitt Romney ahead by seven points the day before voting, and Sen. Barack Obama ahead by 13 points in the Democratic primary. Mr. Romney lost by eight points, and Mr. Obama lost by 10 points. By way of explanation, pollster John Zogby wrote on his Web site that “we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.” He blamed the miss on overestimating African-American turnout and underestimating Hispanic turnout, while overstating the importance of younger Hispanic voters.
When I asked Zogby spokesman Fritz Wenzel for further details, such as what those flawed estimates were, and passed along a blog post from Mr. Blumenthal calling for more disclosure from the firm, Mr. Wenzel dismissed sites like Pollster.com as “rivals.” “We are satisfied that we have identified the problem in California,” Mr. Wenzel wrote in an email, “and giving our rivals more ammo in the form of methodological detail, some of which is proprietary, with which to criticize us further doesn’t make the world a better place
Nancy Mathiowetz: Pre-election Poll Methodology: What the Public Has a Right to Know
The buzz over the recent Zogby online poll that finds Senator Hillary Clinton losing to all four top Republicans in head-to-head trial heats reinforces the public's right to know and understand and the media's obligation to report the nuances of survey and polling methodology.
In the case of an online panel survey (like Zogby's) only those individuals who have previously joined the panel have an opportunity to be surveyed. As noted in their methodology, "Zogby has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site, as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum." From this pre-registered group, a random sample is selected. So what's the population that is actually represented by the poll that was recently reported by Reuters and others? The answer: those individuals who have identified themselves previously and registered to be part of the panel.
A case in point is one of the bigger misses of recent primaries: the Reuters/Zogby poll in California, which showed Mitt Romney ahead by seven points the day before voting, and Sen. Barack Obama ahead by 13 points in the Democratic primary. Mr. Romney lost by eight points, and Mr. Obama lost by 10 points. By way of explanation, pollster John Zogby wrote on his Web site that “we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.” He blamed the miss on overestimating African-American turnout and underestimating Hispanic turnout, while overstating the importance of younger Hispanic voters.
When I asked Zogby spokesman Fritz Wenzel for further details, such as what those flawed estimates were, and passed along a blog post from Mr. Blumenthal calling for more disclosure from the firm, Mr. Wenzel dismissed sites like Pollster.com as “rivals.” “We are satisfied that we have identified the problem in California,” Mr. Wenzel wrote in an email, “and giving our rivals more ammo in the form of methodological detail, some of which is proprietary, with which to criticize us further doesn’t make the world a better place
Primaries. Different story. Many voters switched parties to influence the worst candidate of the opposite party.
Zogby Online Polls
Zogby Interactive Survey (ZIS) will allow you to voice your opinions from anywhere within the United States, online. ZIS combines the latest trends in technology with Zogby International's record of success and technical expertise in the field of public opinion research.
With a simple click of a button, you too can join the millions of respondents who have taken Zogby International surveys.
For years we've heard from you asking "Why don't you ever call me?" - Well, now, with the advancement of the Internet, you have the opportunity to let your opinion be known with the click of a button.
CJR: How Reliable Is the Zogby-Journal Poll?
When reached by phone last week, Cliff Zukin, a political science professor and polling expert at Rutgers University, suggests that journalists should generally be wary of any Zogby interactive poll.
“The Zogby stuff, on scientific grounds, is quite questionable,” says Zukin. “Online, Internet, opt-in polling, where people volunteer to be respondents, doesn’t really have a basis in scientific validity. There are two kinds of samples in the world. There are probability samples, and there are non-probability samples.”
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McCain ahead by 5 points!!!
