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Is the Palin boost really a big boost for McCain? After the republican convention in 2004, George Bush took a commanding lead in the national polls after John Kerry lead Bush by one or two points. With Palin on the ticket and even with the GOP excitement around her, the bump isnt as big as the GOP post convention bump in 2004. Also a thing to note Kerry was much further behind Bush in the polls than Obama is behind McCain yet Kerry managed to signifcantly close to gap by election day after 3 strong debates. Kerry lost by a very small margin. Personally I dont go by national polls but just thought some of you would like to know this. So dont get too cocky
Is the Palin boost really a big boost for McCain? After the republican convention in 2004, George Bush took a commanding lead in the national polls after John Kerry lead Bush by one or two points. With Palin on the ticket and even with the GOP excitement around her, the bump isnt as big as the GOP post convention bump in 2004. Also a thing to note Kerry was much further behind Bush in the polls than Obama is behind McCain yet Kerry managed to signifcantly close to gap by election day after 3 strong debates. Kerry lost by a very small margin. Personally I dont go by national polls but just thought some of you would like to know this. So dont get too cocky
Good point. Here's a Newsweek poll from 2004 shortly after the GOP convention. It shows Bush leading Kerry 54 to 43%. The convention gave Bush/Cheney a 13 point bounce. So Obama's current polling numbers are actually better than Kerry's was at the same stage of the campaign in 2004.
It's going to come down to the electoral map and the swing states. Personally, I'm not sure how a state like Michigan can possibly go to McCain. There is no way.
MI and PA are definately in play. These are Palin-type voters. In addition, race relations in MI are extremely tense and don't forget the former mayor who is going to jail probably - the one who obama said a few months ago was a "great" mayor and would do great things in the future.
It's going to come down to the electoral map and the swing states. Personally, I'm not sure how a state like Michigan can possibly go to McCain. There is no way.
Exactly. The national poll doesn't matter AT ALL. Look at the 2000 election, when Al Gore won the popular vote, and we know the rest of the story...
It's going to come down to the electoral map and the swing states. Personally, I'm not sure how a state like Michigan can possibly go to McCain. There is no way.
I saw some analysts last night on CNN or one of the other cable news networks going over the electoral map. They were in agreement that there are really only 4 states truly in play: Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire. They were saying that in order to win, McCain will have to take at least three of the four. If Obama gets two, he wins.
I saw some analysts last night on CNN or one of the other cable news networks going over the electoral map. They were in agreement that there are really only 4 states truly in play: Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire. They were saying that in order to win, McCain will have to take at least three of the four. If Obama gets two, he wins.
This is probably pretty accurate. But, Virginia could also fall Obama, that race is a statistical dead heat. I personally think that VA. is a bellwether. If Obama gets it, he wins. I just can't see McCain winning MI.--simply too much economic trouble there. Ohio, maybe. But that won't be enough without MI.
Based on ALL the states that are currently in the democratic column, Obama just needs to get Virginia and he has won the presidency. Virginia is virtually tied and not since 1964 has the state become so blue. The black vote could tip the state over to Obama which would give him the presidency. Obama can also win by taking Colorado and Nevada. Obama has a slight lead in both those states with a little bit bigger lead in Nevada. Another way Obama can win is just win Ohio or just win Florida. So the map is clearly is Obama's favor. With all the coverage on Palin lately, its easy to get the impression that McCain has won this thing but when you look at the hard core reality, its going to be pretty tough to beat Obama looking at where he stands in the battle ground states. The media doesnt decide who the next president is. its the electoral map. Certainly in 2004 John Kerry had his back to the wall in regards to the electoral map. This is not the case with Obama.
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According to the map...
