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Even though a number of pundits feel McCain had a strong night, most all media/research polls, online polls (including City Data’s), and focus groups conclude that Obama won the first debate or did better. Why?
Here are my top three reasons in order:
1. McCain is older and he has more experience than Obama, particularly in the areas of foreign affairs and national security. Expectations were reasonably high that if there was one debate where McCain could outshine Obama and make him look weak on the issue of readiness to be commander-in-chief this was the debate. Although McCain was strong and in command, SO WAS Obama. Obama held his own and went toe-to-toe with McCain on every point of disagreement, articulated his positions well, and demonstrated a good amount of knowledge and confidence on a topic that McCain was supposed to be far more superior on. Instead I think viewers came away seeing two confident men with strong positions and views on foreign policy and national security that simply differ from one another. In summary, McCain did not deliver a knock out punch or zinger like he needed to and as a result McCain’s assertion that Obama does not have the experience or judgment in this arena did not resonate.
2. Body language and tone. Many pundits have pointed out that Obama said McCain was right at several points throughout the debate. While the McCain camp would have one to believe that showed weakness on Obama’s part, I believe it showed strength. The fact that Obama was willing to recognize and compliment McCain when he genuinely felt he did something right or had a policy position that was good, showed that Obama could be gracious and magnanimous. I think the country wants to see political leaders working together and trying to find common ground instead of relentlessly attacking one another. McCain on the other hand, was not very engaging, hardly ever looked at Obama, hardly referred to him by name, seemed grumpy and at times angry and he never displayed the bipartisan, work across the isle Maverick that he claims to be in any of his responses to Obama. It almost seems like McCain has contempt for Obama and doesn’t respect him and sees him as an unworthy opponent. This is a big mistake IMO. Obama is where he is because the American people elected him to be there and on top of that Obama received more votes to be his party’s nominee than McCain did to be his party’s nominee. McCain needs to show more respect to Obama and stop being so disrespectful and condescending in tone toward him.
3. McCain is slipping in the polls and the momentum at least over the past two weeks has begun to shift toward Obama. Palin’s disastrous interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric have weakened the public’s trust in her readiness and qualifications and have caused people to question McCain’s judgment. McCain has also comes across as too calculating and erratic as evidenced by his supposed "suspension" of his campaign which most now believe was a gimmick and stunt. He also seemed very unsure of himself and of his positions on the economic crises going from saying the economy was fundamentally strong to saying a week later that we are in a full blown national crisis. He needed to take people’s focus and attention away from all of the noise his campaign has created lately and reassure them that he knows what he’s doing and that his judgment is sound and better than Obama's. However there is nothing that he said or did in the debate that really changed the negative perceptions people, particularly independents, are beginning to form about his judgment and temperament.
I think you have brought up some very valid points, which I have thought to myself too, altho personally I found the debate more of a draw. For Obama supporters, they will hope that McCain will continue on this path. My guess is that the McCain camp is reviewing the things that didn't go so well, and he McCain will at least change his demeanor some by the next debate.
Now, what to do about Palin? If you're for Obama, you'll just hope that she continues to embarrass the GOP. If you're for McCain, you'll hope that she can get her act together quickly. That's a tall order though.
This Libertarian does not think Obama won the debate. Neither performance was stellar, but it was clear to this old Libertarian that Obama is far too idealistic and inexperienced to run this country.
The CNN poll again was weighted toward a dem by 14% points. Meaningless.
You need to brush up on "Statistics and Probalility" - they do offer many books in the area. Any extra weighting of Dems or Reps can be corrected easily. Statistical sampling has come a long way.
I agree about the body language and tone. McCain tried multiple times to paint himself as a maverick who reaches across the aisle to work with Democrats, but when Obama showed agreement with his points, McCain said this agreement was a weakness that made Obama unfit to lead.
I also think people liked that Obama had more presence on the stage. He made John McCain look very weak in that regards.
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