Final Polling Thread: Nov 4

[mike0421]

Originally Posted by TuborgP

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Latest Polls
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/03 -- -- 52.0 44.2 Obama +7.8
The start of the day with RCP and there is one really big WOW poll, really wow.
IBDeditorials.com: Editorials, Political Cartoons, and Polls from Investor's Business Daily
With just hours to go before the polls open Tuesday, the latest and final IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama with a 7.2-point lead over Sen. John McCain (51.5% Obama vs. 44.3% McCain). All other candidates garner a combined 4.2%. This tally represents IBD/TIPP’s final estimate after allocating undecided voters.

This was the poll heralded by the McCain supporters as showing McCain closing. This was the poll that was suppose to have been the most accurate in 2004. It show Obama hitting the RCP average also with a lead of over 7. The closes poll still listed in RCP has Obama at 5 and they seem to be closing in on the 7-8 point range. It appears according to IBD that the independents are breaking Obama.

That's a really big move, and you know what? This is the poll I've been most interested in. I wonder what made so many break towards Obama in the final day, according to this poll, anyway?

[TuborgP]

Final Fivethirtyeight wrapup
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189
t's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.

We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by mike0421

That's a really big move, and you know what? This is the poll I've been most interested in. I wonder what made so many break towards Obama in the final day, according to this poll, anyway?

Thats a great question and I wonder myself. If I find anything I will post.
VOTE