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From what I understand Ukraine is a Belgium-like situation where the country is divided in two by languages. The Russian speakers want to align with Russia and the Ukrainian speakers want to become part of the EU.
Do you think the country might split into a West Ukraine EU state and an East Ukraine Russian satellite state within the next few years?
From what I understand Ukraine is a Belgium-like situation where the country is divided in two by languages. The Russian speakers want to align with Russia and the Ukrainian speakers want to become part of the EU.
Do you think the country might split into a West Ukraine EU state and an East Ukraine Russian satellite state within the next few years?
In this particular situation I don't think that the West wants just SOME PART of Ukraine - Western Ukraine to be precise, which was never of any significant importance from economic point of view. It doesn't accomplish the goal of the EU; if it were the case - then they'd already made an offer to Western Ukrainians - those areas around Lvov in particular. What E.U wants - is the WHOLE Ukraine, Eastern part including, which was traditionally the hub of Ukrainian industry. ( With that - don't forget the Crimea, Sebastopol - the inseparable part of Russian history, the place where Russia's Black Sea fleet has been traditionally stationed.)
So no, I don't think that Western Ukraine is something that EU wants, that's why they do not encourage the separation; for the EU Western Ukraine would be an economic burden, without accomplishment of their main goal - hurting Russian interests.
Now Russia on another hand... I don't think that Russians care too much if Western Ukraine would have split from the Eastern part; that would be of no significance for them, so I'd guess they'd take the situation as "take it or leave it."
The possible split would be the death of all of Ukraine. That will not happen. It is possible to keep the nation united, and that is best achieved by democratic and fair elections, rise of the civil society, the Rechtsstaat, press freedom and battling corruption.
But if Yanukovych wins, this change can't even start to happen, and Ukraine turns only to a corrupted dominion of Russia with nepotistic governments, oligarchs and suppressed civil rights.
The possible split would be the death of all of Ukraine. That will not happen. It is possible to keep the nation united, and that is best achieved by democratic and fair elections, rise of the civil society, the Rechtsstaat, press freedom and battling corruption.
It has been split before and it didn't die because Eastern/Central parts of Ukraine were always more important for Ukraine's existence.
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But if Yanukovych wins, this change can't even start to happen, and Ukraine turns only to a corrupted dominion of Russia with nepotistic governments, oligarchs and suppressed civil rights.
Too late to think about this part.
Ukraine had this chance of becoming "democratic state" with the "rise of civil society" back in the nineties, ( so did Russia by the way,) but all the West was concerned about at that point was $$$$ and destruction of Soviet state. It didn't care about establishing the "civil society" in either place at that point in time, when it was crucial.
Now Ukraine economy wise is too long gone; the further attempts of IMF manipulations will mean only more painful destruction for Ukrainians. That's why the opposition leaders went to Merkel, asking for more money than original offer was. They too understand by now that if they'll be the leaders of the country while it will be forced to undergo the kind of economic reforms that the West wants them to, they'll be hated by Ukrainians ( who will feel betrayed) with passion.
So while I agree in many ways with what you are saying regarding Ukraine's bleak prospects of being dominated by Russian corruption, the train for them is long gone; things will get only worse before they'll get any better for Russia and Ukraine - both.
Do you think that if Yanukovich would have had a better offer from Europe in economic terms he'd still turn to Russia for the heck of it?
I don't believe so. He turned to Russia out of desperation, because of the economic situation they've found themselves in after the nineties; pretty much the same spot where Russians found themselves.
Civil rights for you - it's shooting at unarmed police officers?
And what about the snipers killing unarmed protesters? Some said they were sent there from the Kremlin. That wouldn't surprise me. Killing is not anything unfamiliar to Putin.
Yanukovych has now escaped the capital Kiev and went to Eastern Ukraine where he condemns the Parliament and the opposition for dethroning him and stripping his powers. He refuses from resigning. I think he will use Eastern Ukraine as his base to regain Western Ukraine.
I think there is a possibility that it will end up like Korea or Vietnam (though later unified).
The Ukraine will split into two. The western half will becomes burden for the EU, and join the likes of Greece and the other PIIGS with their palms open for handouts. The East will be a satellite, even if by force, of Russia. Weak nations do not have a lot of say in their future. The best that both parts of the Ukraine can hope for is to squeeze out a living under the big powers. The agricultural sector of western part can actually get on its feet if it is smart enough to make special deals with China, which needs clean and good grains for its expanding middle class appetite. What Ukraine now needs is a group of smart leaders who will focus on the economy, nevermind the BS about Democracy and freedom, which are just bullcrap designed to fool the gullible young people.
Look at where China is today...do you think its economy would have grown 55 times from what it was in 1989 if Deng didn't make the hard decisions, and instead allowed China to be "democratized"?
There is no way Russia would allow the EU any influence right by the Crimea..where the fleet is based. Dream on, Europe. I don't particularly like Russia, but Putin's tough in-your-face attitude is such a refreshing slap in the face against all those holier-than-thou, self righteous and arrogant westerners.
Wow, just watching ABC talking about how corrupt Ukraine is, and how these protesters are the young educated elite who want to be more like Europe and the US bla bla bla....It's amazing how American media can twist something very complicated into "us vs Them", "good vs Bad"...all the while brainwashing lazy, overweight and barely educated Middle America to support the western narrative. The propaganda technique is so amazingly efficient.
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