[WRnative]

Colorado State University has increased its activity forecast for the peak hurricane season, beginning shortly.

<<Colorado State University’s update builds on its April hurricane forecast that predicted 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Now those numbers have been increased.

Colorado State University revised its seasonal hurricane forecast Wednesday, upping the number of named storms to 24 and calling for five major hurricanes of Cat 3 or stronger.

The new forecast, which is updated each August ahead of the peak of hurricane season, includes the nine named storms that have already come and gone, and considers the much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic.

An average storm season has 12 named storms, including six hurricanes and three major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher....

Through Tuesday, this year’s accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, was 288 percent of normal. ACE is a measure of the duration and strength of tropical systems.>>

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/2...of-normal-year

Real-Time North Atlantic Ocean Statistics compared with climatology

<<A season's ACE is used by NOAA and others to categorize the hurricane season into 4 groups by its activity.[5] Measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin, the median annual index was 87.5 and the mean annual index was 93.2. >>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumu...cyclone_energy

Since 1995, the probability of an above normal or hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season has increased greatly, according to the table of annual ACEs for the Atlantic in the above article.

Accuweather sees the Gulf and therefore the Florida panhandle as a more vulnerable region for the upcoming peak hurricane season.

<<“We are nervous about the panhandle of Florida getting hit once or twice before the season’s over with,” Pastelok said. >>

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...orecast/785406

Category 5 Hurricane Michael, the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane in terms of pressure to strike the continental U.S., made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL, on Oct. 10, 2018. Michael underwent rapid intensification over the very warm GOM waters.

<<Hurricane Michael was a very powerful and destructive tropical cyclone that became the first Category 5 hurricane to strike the contiguous United States since Andrew in 1992. In addition, it was the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States in terms of pressure, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Hurricane Camille in 1969. It was the first Category 5 hurricane on record to impact the Florida Panhandle, the fourth-strongest landfalling hurricane in the contiguous United States, in terms of wind speed, and was the most intense hurricane on record to strike the United States in the month of October.>>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Michael

Initially classified as a near category 5 hurricane, Michael was upgraded to a category 5 after a damagement assessment.

<<Although National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters were able to predict where and when Michael was likely to make landfall several days in advance, the storm’s rapid intensification—jumping from a Category 2 to just shy of a Category 5 in 24 hours—proved tougher to anticipate. NHC defines “rapid intensification” as a storm’s maximum sustained winds increasing by at least 56 kilometers per hour in 24 hours or less. Michael underwent at least three intensification periods on its 5-day march toward the coast.>>

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018...ntensification

Accuweather (see map in linked article) forecasts above normal temperatures for southern Florida, as does the NOAA.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...off01_temp.gif

[trobesmom]

Very worrisome that we've already had nine named storms before August.

[LKJ1988]

Upper levels and dry air aloft don't favor much for anything worth a hoot for a good many days.

[Huasho]

Originally Posted by trobesmom

Very worrisome that we've already had nine named storms before August.

Don't WORRY, B HAPPY !!!! If all are just like the first NINE, let them keep comming and we can EVEN run out of Names for all I care.

[Huasho]

What does Colorado State have to do with Hurricanes ??

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by Huasho

What does Colorado State have to do with Hurricanes ??

Colorado State issued the first seasonal hurricane predictions and the hurricane research of its Tropical Weather & Climate Research center remains renown and widely followed.


<<In 1984, Colorado State University tropical meteorology professor Bill Gray found that hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean declined during El Niño years. Recognizing such patterns, along with fancy statistical modeling, allowed him to do something considered far-fetched at the time: forecast the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June through November. He released his first report that year, and although Gray died in 2016, CSU professors Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell carry on his legacy.>>


https://www.5280.com/2019/03/meet-th...ng-hurricanes/


CSU's Tropical Weather and Climate Research website contains a wealth of information about hurricanes.


https://tropical.colostate.edu/index.html

[jghorton]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Colorado State issued the first seasonal hurricane predictions and the hurricane research of its Tropical Weather & Climate Research center remains renown and widely followed.

<<In 1984, Colorado State University tropical meteorology professor Bill Gray found that hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean declined during El Niño years. Recognizing such patterns, along with fancy statistical modeling, allowed him to do something considered far-fetched at the time: forecast the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June through November. He released his first report that year, and although Gray died in 2016, CSU professors Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell carry on his legacy.>>

https://www.5280.com/2019/03/meet-th...ng-hurricanes/

CSU's Tropical Weather and Climate Research website contains a wealth of information about hurricanes.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/index.html

The CSU accuracy level over the last 15+ years has been laughably abysmal (50% range), yet, by virtue of government grants, they still tout their hurricane seasonal warnings. One could almost draw numbers out of a hat and achieve greater accuracy.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by jghorton

The CSU accuracy level over the last 15+ years has been laughably abysmal (50% range), yet, by virtue of government grants, they still tout their hurricane seasonal warnings. One could almost draw numbers out of a hat and achieve greater accuracy.

Could you please document your claim, or are you just pulling it out of your hat?


Colorado State claims that its early August forecasts have "moderate to high accuracy."


As noted in the Palm Beach Post article, the appearance of "La Nina" conditions sharply boosts the likelihood of hurricanes in coming months. Predicting ENSO conditions months ahead of time is a goal challenging many of the world's weather experts, and the lack of such predictions sharply limit all April seasonal forecasts.




https://source.colostate.edu/scienti...ricane-season/


The biggest early August forecast miss was a significant UNDERESTIMATE in 2005, a hurricane season widely compared to the 2020 season.


CSU's 2020 preseason prediction appears more accurate than any of the other forecasts.


https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/

[Arcenal813]

Meh... Every year, forecasters predict an "abnormally bad season," and it always turns out to be the same: one or two bad storms, and a bunch of small systems passing by.

I think I'm a better forecaster than these "professionals" at this point.
I predict one or two bad storms. lol

[WRnative]

NOAA also has revised its hurricane outlook for the remainder of 2020 by predicting a very active season, for the first time predicting the possibility of 25 named storms for the season.

<<
Even before Aug. 1, nine named storms had already formed – "the most ever recorded since the satellite era began in 1966," according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The 2020 season will likely bring from 19 to 25 named storms, said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. That figure includes the nine storms that have already been named.

"We've never forecast up to 25 storms," Bell said in a telephone briefing about the new forecast. "So this is the first time...."

The current pace is far ahead of historic norms: By early August, only two named storms have usually formed, and the ninth storm, such as the recent Hurricane Isaias, doesn't usually arrive before October....

NOAA believes anywhere from seven to 11 of the named storms will become hurricanes (with winds of at least 74 mph). The forecasters predict that three to six storms will be major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or stronger.>>

The 2020 hurricane season is being compared to the 2005 season, which featured some very destructive storms, including Katrina.

<<The only time Greek letters had to be used for storm names was in 2005 — a record-breaking year for communities along the Atlantic Ocean when major storms such as Katrina, Rita, Dennis and Wilma caused chaos....

The 2005 season left thousands of people dead and caused billions of dollars in damages. As is the case this year, meteorologists cited warm water in the Atlantic and low wind shear as the driving causes for that busy season. Bell said that while the two years are similar, conditions were even more conducive for hurricanes in 2005.>>

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/89973...rricane-season