[WRnative]

The NOAA's 2020 annual August update of its "Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook" foresees an extremely active peak hurricane season this year.

<<The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5)....

The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7-11 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater)....

“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE [Accumulated Cyclone Energy] range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. These conditions are expected to continue for the next several months. A main climate factor behind these conditions is the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time.

Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify. >>

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/e...atlantic-basin

[k350]

Originally Posted by Travelassie

They name them when they barely become tropical storms, even when it's evident the storms are destined for dissipation and will never go anywhere except out to sea.,

Not only that, technology has allowed them to identify them better as well to name them.

[Huasho]

Instead of wasting names they should be identified as Fluke 1-2020, Fluke 2-2020, Fluke 3-2020, so forth and so on !!!!

[Corrie22]

"of which 7-11 will become hurricanes"

LOL.....who wouldn't take those odds....and if it's only 6 the average....no one is going to call them on it

...you know, that's the problem.....absolutely no one holds them accountable

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Huasho

Instead of wasting names they should be identified as Fluke 1-2020, Fluke 2-2020, Fluke 3-2020, so forth and so on !!!!

More like fail fail fail dale. I am ready for a nice TS to make up for no rain so far this summer.

[WRnative]

August may see the spawning of a major hurricane, as much higher than normal ocean surface temperatures offer the needed fuel, and favorable winds are conducive to development, according to Accuweather's top hurricane expert:

<< The 2020 season has already spawned nine tropical storms and a tropical depression. Of the nine tropical storms, two -- Hanna and Isaias -- have gone on to strengthen into hurricanes.

The average date for the first hurricane of the Atlantic season is not until Aug. 10....

Despite the current lull in tropical activity over the Atlantic, there is a significant chance that the "j" and "k" storms may also set early formation records, both of which were set in 2005. Jose formed on Aug. 22, and the blockbuster Katrina formed on Aug. 24.

"Sea surface temperatures continue to run much higher than normal across the southern part of the Atlantic, much of the Gulf of Mexico and along the southeastern coast of the United States," AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said.

"The very warm water and generally favorable winds in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere are creating lower-than-average surface pressure over much of the Atlantic basin, which in turn has created and will continue to create a favorable environment for tropical development in the long term," Kottlowski explained.>>

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...t-warns/790423

The expected retreat of the Bermuda High next week, according to the above article, may sound the starting bell for the 2020 peak hurricane season. The retreat of the Bermuda High, depending upon the extent of its contraction, also may lessen the chance of hurricanes flowing into the Gulf of Mexico.

<<During summer 2004 and 2005, the Bermuda High expanded to the south and west, which steered hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico rather than up the east coast or curving out to sea. Once in the Gulf, most hurricane paths will involve landfall at some location.>>

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10069

As the above NASA article well explains, will the Bermuda High retreat sufficiently to pull hurricanes safely into the North Atlantic, or will it stay sufficiently south to slam hurricanes into the eastern U.S., or even further south to push hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico?

Deja vu?

<<Andrew's journey began as a tropical wave departing the West African coast on August 14th. By August 16th, the wave was organized enough to be classified a tropical depression, and then a tropical storm on the 17th. Andrew tracked west to northwest across the Atlantic around the south side of a ridge of high pressure.>>

https://www.weather.gov/lch/andrew

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by WRnative

August may see the spawning of a major hurricane, as much higher than normal ocean surface temperatures offer the needed fuel, and favorable winds are conducive to development, according to Accuweather's top hurricane expert:

<< The 2020 season has already spawned nine tropical storms and a tropical depression. Of the nine tropical storms, two -- Hanna and Isaias -- have gone on to strengthen into hurricanes.

The average date for the first hurricane of the Atlantic season is not until Aug. 10....

Despite the current lull in tropical activity over the Atlantic, there is a significant chance that the "j" and "k" storms may also set early formation records, both of which were set in 2005. Jose formed on Aug. 22, and the blockbuster Katrina formed on Aug. 24.

"Sea surface temperatures continue to run much higher than normal across the southern part of the Atlantic, much of the Gulf of Mexico and along the southeastern coast of the United States," AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said.

"The very warm water and generally favorable winds in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere are creating lower-than-average surface pressure over much of the Atlantic basin, which in turn has created and will continue to create a favorable environment for tropical development in the long term," Kottlowski explained.>>

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...t-warns/790423

The expected retreat of the Bermuda High next week, according to the above article, may sound the starting bell for the 2020 peak hurricane season. The retreat of the Bermuda High, depending upon the extent of its contraction, also may lessen the chance of hurricanes flowing into the Gulf of Mexico.

<<During summer 2004 and 2005, the Bermuda High expanded to the south and west, which steered hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico rather than up the east coast or curving out to sea. Once in the Gulf, most hurricane paths will involve landfall at some location.>>

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10069

As the above NASA article well explains, will the Bermuda High retreat sufficiently to pull hurricanes safely into the North Atlantic, or will it stay sufficiently south to slam hurricanes into the eastern U.S., or even further south to push hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico?

Deja vu?

<<Andrew's journey began as a tropical wave departing the West African coast on August 14th. By August 16th, the wave was organized enough to be classified a tropical depression, and then a tropical storm on the 17th. Andrew tracked west to northwest across the Atlantic around the south side of a ridge of high pressure.>>

https://www.weather.gov/lch/andrew

With all the shear we got dear and dry air aloft there won't be much of anything until the upper levels change.

[Travelassie]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

"of which 7-11 will become hurricanes"

LOL.....who wouldn't take those odds....and if it's only 6 the average....no one is going to call them on it

...you know, that's the problem.....absolutely no one holds them accountable

I don't think they can, really. They can't predict all the weather variables that could be in place at any particular time, and these have a huge impact on how strong storms get, and where they go. The other thing is, people don't care about the storms that don't impact populated land.

[Corrie22]

...and that's why we should all take their predictions with a grain of salt

[WRnative]

In about two weeks, converging weather patterns are expected to end the lull in the hurricane season with above normal chances of U.S. landfalls.

<<Eventually, that rising branch of the Kelvin wave will move east, over the Atlantic. Its presence there will serve to boost the odds of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Around the same time the Kelvin wave’s rising branch arrives, the Madden-Julian Oscillation will swing into a favorable structure for Atlantic storminess, too. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, or the MJO, is a larger overturning circulation than Kelvin waves, which circles the globe at the tropics every 30 to 60 days. It, too, can enhance or dampen the odds of tropical cyclones....

There will be some overlap, known to meteorologists as “constructive interference,” between the Kelvin wave and the MJO. This means the two features could team up to increase the odds of storms more than either of them would on its own....

Long-range models suggest the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure in the vicinity of Bermuda that often forms at this time of year, will build a bit farther south and west than is typical.

That would influence the atmospheric steering currents that help determine where a cyclone may travel. In an updated hurricane outlook released this week from Colorado State University, meteorologists found well above average odds of a major hurricane (Category 3, 4, 5) making landfall in the Lower 48 states compared with the seasonal average odds.

Simply stated, expect an end to August that ranges between busy and very busy, a period that will probably lead into September. By mid September, we’ll be in the climatological peak of hurricane season anyway, so there is no reason to expect a significant slowdown.>>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...er-this-month/

The above article discusses items needed to prepare for a hurricane, including masks, sanitizers and other materials needed to protect against the COVID-19 virus.

<<It is also a good idea to make sure all vital paperwork is digitized, and make copies to keep in your vehicle.>>