[Ten]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

You think he may be a little biased?

There's some irony to you suggesting such a thing Mike, wouldn't you agree?

Seriously, what happens when all those latent ARM's reset, to consider just one factor in the housing crash? Here's a tool for you where you'll see, for example, Florida and AZ leading the nation in resets in the next 12 months. Check also foreclosures.

Oh, and here's a visual:

[58robbo]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Well I guess he has not been watching all markets in Florida because our inventory here has dropped almost 13% since the beginning of the year.

You are also reading the thoughts of someone who has been a realtor for less than 4 years and before that was mainly in marketing.

So we have someone whose current business relies on REO's and BPO's and would benefit if the market kept crashing. You think he may be a little biased?

mike,

what would consider to be a sustainable PRICE/HOUSEHOLD INCOME ratio with current mortgage facilities and interest rates?

[Wild Style]

Every housing bubble in U.S. history has taken 6 to 7 yrs to correct. This bubbled popped in 2006 so 2012 MAYBE. I say MAYBE because no time in U.S. history has prices run up this high in comparison to local incomes. There is a LOT of correcting to do and I don't know that people will come to their senses quick enough to keep it from dragging out for a prolonged period of time.

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by Ten

There's some irony to you suggesting such a thing Mike, wouldn't you agree?

Seriously, what happens when all those latent ARM's reset, to consider just one factor in the housing crash? Here's a tool for you where you'll see, for example, Florida and AZ leading the nation in resets in the next 12 months. Check also foreclosures.

Oh, and here's a visual:

No irony at all.

In almost all my posts I do not try and predict the future. I post data and let other disseminate it as they choose. The only time I will try and predict anything is when there is a thread where others are asking for predictions.
There will then be other viewpoints there for them to look through.

As far as foreclosures and ARM resets, some areas have seen the worst of it and some areas have not. To lump a whole state together really does not give a good indication as to where we are going.
My county has seen a decrease in inventory, prices have been relatively stable but we may see some further decreases but then again maybe not.
For him to say inventory is increasing and prices are falling off a cliff is just completely untrue.

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by 58robbo

mike,

what would consider to be a sustainable PRICE/HOUSEHOLD INCOME ratio with current mortgage facilities and interest rates?

There are too many other factors that need to be considered.
I have never agreed with a straight price to income ratio.
Each person has to look at their complete financials.

What if 2 couples with $50,000/yr income are looking for a home. One couple has 2 car payments totaling $600 a month and some credit card bills and the other couple is debt free.
That $600 the one couple is not paying could me they could afford a $200K house instead of a $150K house.
As you can see using a straight price to income ratio is rather useless in this situation.
What if one couple sold another home and has $50,000 more to put down, throws it off again.

[Ten]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

For him to say inventory is increasing and prices are falling off a cliff is just completely untrue.

He's lying? Do you have better numbers to cite?

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by 58robbo

but you don't need big government to make laws for you to be sensible. if you are sensible that will have its reward. if you are irresponsible then that will have it consequences.
why can't people learn to take resposibility for their own actions

When the actions of the people impact the greater good of society, you are DARN right the govt needs to take steps to make sure the economy isn't ruined as a result.

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by Ten

He's lying? Do you have better numbers to cite?

I don't believe he cited any numbers. He gave a blanket statement for all of the country that inventory is increasing and pricing is falling off a cliff.

I stated that inventory in my county has decreased 13% since the beginning of the year.

So, yes, what he said is completely untrue whcih equates to lying if that is how you want to put it. It was not how I put it.

[Ten]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

When the actions of the people impact the greater good of society, you are DARN right the govt needs to take steps to make sure the economy isn't ruined as a result.

The Fed's money market manipulations produced three bubbles in a row. We haven't had a free market in decades, certainly since FDR. The govt -- which is by nature corrupted centralized power -- can't take steps to do anything positive for the economy. In fact, that's one of the basis for the origins of this country -- limited, divided powers and a free market.

Federal government addicted to debt,' U.S. comptroller says, and the consequences could be dire- al.com

[Ten]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

I don't believe he cited any numbers. He gave a blanket statement for all of the country that inventory is increasing and pricing is falling off a cliff.

I stated that inventory in my county has decreased 13% since the beginning of the year.

So, yes, what he said is completely untrue whcih equates to lying if that is how you want to put it. It was not how I put it.

Excuse me, there's a skyrocketing inventory out there, moving through eleven months back in April from four back in 2002-2005. Unit sales are a third of their mid-2005 peak. Are we in the same country, Mike?

New home sales at lowest level since October 1991 - Apr. 24, 2008