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15 an hour minimum wage would be different in Southeast FL than it would be in rural north FL etc. Should be based on cost of living instead.
Exactly.
I brought up the oil change shop because I used to manage a local mom & pop-owned shop in a rural town earning $12/hr (after having worked my way up, of course.)
This was roughly 10 years ago.
Looking back, there is no way that place is going to stay in business if everyone there is starting at $15/hr. The owners (there are two) would have to pay themselves roughly $20k/year Unless they somehow manage to hike up the prices enough to offset the increased wages. And this would also mean hoping that the place remains busy, considering dealerships across the street and all.
Don't forget federal and Florida employer payroll taxes which collectively add at least another $1.50 to a $15 minimum wage. A good minimum wage policy IMO should exempt workers below a certain age. There are many new employees who are not responsible and skilled and who economically are not worth $16/hour. Some require significant management time to even function well, especially at first.
Most employers who find trustworthy, competent employees quickly raise their wages.
Famed economic prognosticator Nouriel Roubini predicts a staglation within this decade which will result in a Greater Depression. It will be interesting to see, if Roubini is correct, how minimum wage laws function in an inflationary environment where jobs are being shedded. In Florida, such a stagflation will be compounded by the onslaught of climate change and a collapse in discretionary spending which will impact the tourism industry.
<<You combine these 10 forces, and they're all very disruptive, and you might have eventually, a greater depression. But it's not the story for this year or next, but for the middle of the decade....
So globalization and technology were positive supply shocks for the last decade that increase growth and reduce inflation. The next decade, we're going to see negative shocks coming from de-globalization and less technological innovation. And if you add to them monetization of fiscal deficit, eventually, the inflation genie gets out of the bottle and you end up with stagflation, stagnation and inflation, like we did in the 1970s when we had two oil shocks that were negative supply shocks that were monetized and fiscalized, and we ended up with the stagflation after '73 and after '79. So that's the risk we're facing.>>
Minimum wages are a brutal policy in a high-employment environment. I never would have voted for this amendment, especially as an epidemic weights on the economy and employment.
My expectation is that the cash economy will grow rapidly in Florida, but this exposes employers to significant tax penalties and inherently illegal behavior, even blackmail in some cases.
I know it sounds good on paper, but the reality of it is, many won’t be able to afford this. Think your local lube shop that hires college kids for $9/hr to change your oil. The owner of a small, locally-owned shop isn’t taking in big bucks. He is lucky if he even sees a $90k/year salary. If he employs a small staff of 6 guys for $9/hr, and their salaries are forced to be bumped to $15/hr, that’s an added $75k/yr expense. For a staff of 6. You think this guy will keep his shop open? Where is this money going to come from, to keep operations going?
What about small businesses who hire more than 6 workers?
What about businesses who currently pay tenured employees $15/hr? Pretty sure they will also want a salary increase of similar rate (nearly 100% increase over the next 6 years.) who is paying for this?
I have a feeling this isn’t going to last. If it does, I expect many businesses to just shut their doors.
The increase being gradual over the next 5 years or so should be enough time for businesses to make adjustments, even if that means higher prices. I personally feel like minimum wage should be a legislative issue.
When it comes to the current $15/16 employee's view of $9 employees who will get bumped up, I don't feel the sentiment is consistent given the praises people gave about DeSantis's teacher minimum wage that would do this at a more significant rate.
What I find interesting and perplexing is that the amendment passed at 60%, yet the state elects governors, US senators, and two times in a row, a president who would VETO this amendment if it was given to them as legislation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ram2
McDonalds installed the automated cashiers in Seattle stores when the minimum wage was hiked there. And several businesses moved out of that city.
Yes. The kiosks and self-checkouts could be about reducing costs. But it is ALSO about McDonald's being an early adopter of the latest trends. Are they just going to sit back and let Wawa and similar companies keep the kiosks to themselves? Let Starbucks steal the show with app-based ordering? Not try to capitalize on 3rd party delivery services (where they were actually one of the first national brands to use)? Publix seemed to be against self-checkout because of its service reputation, but they've started to cave due to customer requests/complains, which is even evidenced in this City-Data forum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle19125
The current system isn't sustainable and as pointed out if the business model can't support the increase not deserving probably of staying open. The federal minimum wage has been at $7.25 an hour since 2009, and the only reason it has gone up at all in many areas is due to competition for the better employees. Some companies have already made the move to $15 an hour. Amazon, Wells Fargo, Costco, Starbucks (most locations) and McDonalds (some locations) are among the first. Target, WalMart, Chipotle, Whole Foods, Aldi, Trader Joe's, Home Depot, Lowe's and other retailers already pay $12 an hour or more. The stragglers paying less than $10 an hour either need to up the ante to compete or fail. That's part of the free market capitalist society we are so in love with...
I've always thought that the big businesses would be fine with minimum wage hikes but that it would hurt the smaller, local competitors. But as you said, many of the big companies are beating the government to the punch, likely as the result of public pressure. So, the market is doing its thing.
What I find interesting and perplexing is that the amendment passed at 60%, yet the state elects governors, US senators, and two times in a row, a president who would VETO this amendment if it was given to them as legislation.
Break out of the strait-jacket mindset that this two-party ideological thing is real, and you will understand more clearly.
There are enough people who vote on a pragmatic case-by-case basis.
Break out of the strait-jacket mindset that this two-party ideological thing is real, and you will understand more clearly.
There are enough people who vote on a pragmatic case-by-case basis.
What is perplexing?
I think it's more of an "I'll get what's mine and to --- with everyone else" issue. Additionally and as usual, several of these counties also voted to raise their own taxes to fund their school systems, but they will also vote to send representatives and governors to Tallahassee who only want to siphon more money to charter and private schools.
There were photos on Twitter of Fox News' coverage of the election with its exit polls. Granted, this was not limited to its viewers, but their poll results shows that more and more Americans are in favor of left-wing policies like government health care, stricter gun laws, the upholding of Roe vs. Wade, etc. Yet, that doesn't necessarily reflect the popular vote totals.
Disclaimer: Me saying that doesn't mean I am in support of all of that.
If the enactment of this amendment goes like the ex-felon voting thing, DeSantis and the Legislature will do whatever they can to slow it down.
The current system isn't sustainable and as pointed out if the business model can't support the increase not deserving probably of staying open. The federal minimum wage has been at $7.25 an hour since 2009, and the only reason it has gone up at all in many areas is due to competition for the better employees. Some companies have already made the move to $15 an hour. Amazon, Wells Fargo, Costco, Starbucks (most locations) and McDonalds (some locations) are among the first. Target, WalMart, Chipotle, Whole Foods, Aldi, Trader Joe's, Home Depot, Lowe's and other retailers already pay $12 an hour or more. The stragglers paying less than $10 an hour either need to up the ante to compete or fail. That's part of the free market capitalist society we are so in love with...
The market does a phenomenal job of setting wages. You don't need governmental intervention. Example, you say? How can a landlord charge high rents that a worker cannot afford to pay? It balances itself out just fine. I'm an employer here. I can tell you that I simply cannot hire a worker for minimum wage. The market has already FAR surpassed minimum wage. I'll have no issue with $15/hr in 2026. But I'm in South Florida. What about LCOL areas? I have a home in Highlands also. $15/hr minimum there is absolutely absurd.
The issue is when the government starts meddling in the markets, that's when things go south. Let the market do its thing, with reasonable oversight. This amendment is solving a problem that doesn't exist, and is likely to create new problems. Heck, it's the brainchild of the scummiest, biggest ambulance chasing pile of garbage attorney in the country... Mr. Morgan. What could go wrong...
There is nothing free market capitalist about artificially high minimum wages...
Don't forget federal and Florida employer payroll taxes which collectively add at least another $1.50 to a $15 minimum wage. A good minimum wage policy IMO should exempt workers below a certain age. There are many new employees who are not responsible and skilled and who economically are not worth $16/hour. Some require significant management time to even function well, especially at first.
Most employers who find trustworthy, competent employees quickly raise their wages.
Famed economic prognosticator Nouriel Roubini predicts a staglation within this decade which will result in a Greater Depression. It will be interesting to see, if Roubini is correct, how minimum wage laws function in an inflationary environment where jobs are being shedded. In Florida, such a stagflation will be compounded by the onslaught of climate change and a collapse in discretionary spending which will impact the tourism industry.
<<You combine these 10 forces, and they're all very disruptive, and you might have eventually, a greater depression. But it's not the story for this year or next, but for the middle of the decade....
So globalization and technology were positive supply shocks for the last decade that increase growth and reduce inflation. The next decade, we're going to see negative shocks coming from de-globalization and less technological innovation. And if you add to them monetization of fiscal deficit, eventually, the inflation genie gets out of the bottle and you end up with stagflation, stagnation and inflation, like we did in the 1970s when we had two oil shocks that were negative supply shocks that were monetized and fiscalized, and we ended up with the stagflation after '73 and after '79. So that's the risk we're facing.>>
Minimum wages are a brutal policy in a high-employment environment. I never would have voted for this amendment, especially as an epidemic weights on the economy and employment.
My expectation is that the cash economy will grow rapidly in Florida, but this exposes employers to significant tax penalties and inherently illegal behavior, even blackmail in some cases.
I can't stand nearly all of your posts. But you are spot on with this one. And yes, anyone familiar with the huge farming areas in Florida knows that the cash economy will boom even more than it is already.
I know it sounds good on paper, but the reality of it is, many won’t be able to afford this. Think your local lube shop that hires college kids for $9/hr to change your oil. The owner of a small, locally-owned shop isn’t taking in big bucks. He is lucky if he even sees a $90k/year salary. If he employs a small staff of 6 guys for $9/hr, and their salaries are forced to be bumped to $15/hr, that’s an added $75k/yr expense. For a staff of 6. You think this guy will keep his shop open? Where is this money going to come from, to keep operations going?
What about small businesses who hire more than 6 workers?
What about businesses who currently pay tenured employees $15/hr? Pretty sure they will also want a salary increase of similar rate (nearly 100% increase over the next 6 years.) who is paying for this?
I have a feeling this isn’t going to last. If it does, I expect many businesses to just shut their doors.
many businesses will go under, big corporations will get a larger marketshare, and consolidation will happen in all industries.
Inflation will come in a wild way too.
I may just sell my stake in a couple of small businesses I own, instead of dealing with this.
What do you mean by you not thinking this will last? Will it repealed? how? That would be nice, but I just dont see it happening
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