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Most of the province of Ontario is northern wilderness. It's huge in area being almost the same size as Alaska.
Ontario at 1.67 million sq. Km and Alaska at 1.71 million sq. Km. Once you get more than 100 miles from the US border it's a different world altogether.
Indeed, the comparison makes a little more sense with Ontario's pre-1912 borders.
I'd say Toronto (and Hamilton) are more "Northeastern" but just barely. Built form, the city is sort of a more gentrified Philadelphia(?) + Queens + Chicago. Demographically, it looks like a mix of Queens and London.
Memph had an excellent post showing how older parts of Toronto looks a lot like Pennsylvania cities. The pics from Bethlehem, PA and Toronto are remarkably similar.
The majority of the population - around 70% or so - would live north of New York State or say, east of Erie, PA.
Ontario has, I think, more of a Victorian/colonial feel that puts it more in line with the Northeast. I think that's true of places like Kingston, Port Hope and Cobourg, Niagara-on-the-Lake etc. and even Toronto and Hamilton. Interestingly, row houses and semi-detached are common in Ontario towns as well as in Pennsylvania but not in Upstate NY. I don't really associate the Midwest with a Victorian/colonial feel, but the Connecticut Western Reserve area of Northeast Ohio may have it. The rolling hill landscapes and small-scale farming of most of south-central and eastern Ontario strike me as more "Northeastern."
From about Kitchener, you definitely see more "Midwestern in the Michigan sense" characteristics - larger scale-farming and industrial cities like Windsor and Sarnia.
One argument for Ontario's overall "Midwestern-ness" is that nobody disputes the Midwestern status of Michigan and surrounding Ontario has a lot of similarities to it. In contrast, when people think of "typical" Northeast they mean BosWash + New England, not the western half of New York State. The centrality that lakes play in Ontario's geography and recreation also makes it seem to resemble Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota more than NY/PA. I'm sure going to a lakefront cabin is common in Upstate NY but it's more associated with say, Chicago, where many vacation in Wisconsin and Michigan.
When I think of cities like Buffalo and Pittsburgh, they're clearly northeastern/rust belt, but you get a faint mid-western feeling. My friends in Cheektowaga talk with a mid-western accent.
That said, I can't argue with any of the recent comments about Ontario from Hamilton eastward having similarities to the northeast... and everything to the west having a mid-western feel.
Really, Toronto is a kind of hybrid. Not really northeastern, not really mid-western... but a bit of both.
Another argument for "Northeastern": Toronto is in the same (eastern-most) divisions for professional sports as NYC, Boston, etc. Amtrak also places Toronto in its "Northeast" region.
"Midwestern": Auto industry presence. Not only in the southwest but also as far east as Oshawa.
Population by historic regions (2011 census). The Golden Horseshoe is often now thought of as its own region rather than part of Central Ontario, and Western Ontario is now usually referred to as Southwestern Ontario.
Eastern Ontario: 1,698,189
Central Ontario: 7,816,029
Western Ontario: 2,504,878
Northern Ontario: 800,591
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