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I don't know, 15-20 years sounds way too soon to me. Are you guys guessing or do you actually know detailed information about this technology and based your guesses off information you've gotten from companies who will make these cars or this technology? Maybe it's because I'm not into cars in any way except the fact that I drive them, but I never hear about this technology or how advanced it is or when it will come out and be fully functional to the point where a baby could "drive" unattended.
I don't know, 15-20 years sounds way too soon to me. Are you guys guessing or do you actually know detailed information about this technology and based your guesses off information you've gotten from companies who will make these cars or this technology? Maybe it's because I'm not into cars in any way except the fact that I drive them, but I never hear about this technology or how advanced it is or when it will come out and be fully functional to the point where a baby could "drive" unattended.
I don't know, 15-20 years sounds way too soon to me. Are you guys guessing or do you actually know detailed information about this technology and based your guesses off information you've gotten from companies who will make these cars or this technology? Maybe it's because I'm not into cars in any way except the fact that I drive them, but I never hear about this technology or how advanced it is or when it will come out and be fully functional to the point where a baby could "drive" unattended.
the technology is already here. google has cars that self drive in california. now Uber is opening a self driving car center in Pittsburgh. it's just a matter of fine tuning all of the details in the technology, and mass production. but there are cars that drive themselves now.
In 15 years every street and highway will be fully automated with no "actual" drivers on the road? LOL
You are missing the avalanche effect. As soon as the robo cars get enough presence they are going to show an accident rate 10 or 20% of the human driven vehicle. And the human driver suddenly hits vast increases in insurance rate as the robo car owners leave that pool. Once it starts it will probably take less than 10 years for human drivers to be priced out of the car.
I don't know how it will actually develop. Everyone automates a little, than more than a lot, than fully. Or suddenly the truck world goes fully auto...and the technology trickles down to the personal. Or it comes up from taxi fleets in urban areas.
It is coming though. And I expect real implementations by 2020. Watch for the communication package. That one is likely to get retrofitted to the entire vehicle fleet. And it will happen in the next ten years.
I feel this may most benefit cities that don't have an efficient mass transit system. The "run down" cities such as Detroit, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Memphis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo may get some improvements, but their other problems may hold them back compared to the sunbelt and nicer, less run-down metros, and it doesn't have to be to a walkable city. Why would you need a walkable core when you can just hop in the car to go to the next destination? Many sunbelt cities will likely benefit from this, heavy traffic or not. California would be a nice test for this trend obviously, and if a success would be a boon for its economy and then could spread elsewhere.
the technology is already here. google has cars that self drive in california. now Uber is opening a self driving car center in Pittsburgh. it's just a matter of fine tuning all of the details in the technology, and mass production. but there are cars that drive themselves now.
There's a few more hurdles than that. Mostly that they don't really work in rain or snow because it interferes with the LIDAR systems. Which is why the only ones seriously under commercial development now are manual cars which can optionally be put into automatic mode.
That said, it's only a matter of time until this is fixed. Once it is, it's mostly about getting the cost down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michigantown
We really going to have to have a discussion on what to do with the unemployed drivers in the future.
All the unemployed everyone. Computers are basically totally eliminating call centers right now. Robots are moving into jobs as varied as logistics, pharmacy tech, and burger flipping. I've seen estimates that up to 50% of current jobs will be automated in the next twenty years. Even if the number is half as many, that will be a huge social transition from America. We'll likely have to move away from the ideal that we could ever create enough jobs to employ everyone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc
You are missing the avalanche effect. As soon as the robo cars get enough presence they are going to show an accident rate 10 or 20% of the human driven vehicle. And the human driver suddenly hits vast increases in insurance rate as the robo car owners leave that pool. Once it starts it will probably take less than 10 years for human drivers to be priced out of the car.
Robo cars should lower everyone's insurance premiums, as human drivers will be less likely to hit robotic cars. The only reason insurance rates could go up is if the insurance companies decide they want to kill manual driving and raise rates to make it uncompetitive.
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