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In 2023, OMB will update the MSAs and CSAs for the government, to align with the 2020 Census results. It's near given that Phoenix and Seattle will both clip 5 million people then, giving the U.S. 14 cities over 5 million: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington.
Which city will be the magic #15 in crossing the 5 million barrier?
You can, rightfully, assume that CSAs/MSAs will be drastically changed in 2023. Will Tampa finally absorb Lakeland and Sarasota to become a behemoth? Same for Orlando. Or will it be a fast demographic grower like Denver, with fewer potentials for annexation.
The choices are the CSAs/PSAs which today have more than 3,000,000 people but likely won't surpass 5,000,000 by 2020.
Tampa Bay Area and I fully expect it to add the adjacent areas of Sarasota and Lakeland, possibly Homosassa Springs too by the 2023 redefinition through 15% commuter threshold. This designated area already has 4.7 million people, going on 4.8 million people and last year went + 99,000 people in population gains. It would actually be larger than Greater Phoenix or Greater Seattle under this definition. I'd say the Tampa Bay Area will be the first to cross the 5 million line next.
The Orlando CSA can also add too, it can and eventually will add the Melbourne MSA (on the Atlantic Ocean side of Florida) when commuter threshold ceiling of 15% is broken. Present day population of Greater Orlando + Melbourne MSA is 3.5-3.6 million people. Through that addition due to CSA redefinition and natural increase, Greater Orlando can push past 5 million as well.
I think after that would be Denver, it is also poised to add in the Fort Collins area by the 2023 census redefinition (commuting has increased markedly in the region) + natural increase. Don't know if it can in the very near term but the possibility definitely exists for Denver.
I also expect Greater Cincinnati to add in Dayton as well, but that wont push it past 5 million but will bring it even with Greater Cleveland more or less.
San Diego, Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and Portland will both post solid gains but not enough to push past 5 million in the next 20 years, unless they further accelerate their growth year-over-year going forward.
The two Florida areas and Greater Denver have the best shot at it, I'd say.
I am personally waiting for the 10 million CSA of Tampa and Orlando. That area is more connected than New York-Philadelphia and is coming in close on Baltimore-Washington D.C and because of the density of cities in central Florida that area is quickly becoming like the NE and from just north of Miami to just south of Jacksonville is easily 10 million people in 10 counties by 2030.
Tampa Bay Area and I fully expect it to add the adjacent areas of Sarasota and Lakeland, possibly Homosassa Springs too by the 2023 redefinition through 15% commuter threshold. This designated area already has 4.7 million people, going on 4.8 million people and last year went + 99,000 people in population gains. It would actually be larger than Greater Phoenix or Greater Seattle under this definition. I'd say the Tampa Bay Area will be the first to cross the 5 million line next.
The Orlando CSA can also add too, it can and eventually will add the Melbourne MSA (on the Atlantic Ocean side of Florida) when commuter threshold ceiling of 15% is broken. Present day population of Greater Orlando + Melbourne MSA is 3.5-3.6 million people. Through that addition due to CSA redefinition and natural increase, Greater Orlando can push past 5 million as well.
I think after that would be Denver, it is also poised to add in the Fort Collins area by the 2023 census redefinition (commuting has increased markedly in the region) + natural increase. Don't know if it can in the very near term but the possibility definitely exists for Denver.
I also expect Greater Cincinnati to add in Dayton as well, but that wont push it past 5 million but will bring it even with Greater Cleveland more or less.
San Diego, Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and Portland will both post solid gains but not enough to push past 5 million in the next 20 years, unless they further accelerate their growth year-over-year going forward.
The two Florida areas and Greater Denver have the best shot at it, I'd say.
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Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare
I am personally waiting for the 10 million CSA of Tampa and Orlando. That area is more connected than New York-Philadelphia and is coming in close on Baltimore-Washington D.C and because of the density of cities in central Florida that area is quickly becoming like the NE and from just north of Miami to just south of Jacksonville is easily 10 million people in 10 counties by 2030.
I last lived in Central FL in 08' and the density was no where close to the NEC. I am sure that much infill has happened, but not enough to close the gap with the DC-Baltimore region. That region adds 125k per year this decade. Central FL reminds me more of the gap between DC to Richmond, which too is seeing infill at a good pace.
The stretch along I-95 from Harve de Grace, MD down to Richmond, VA and take I-64 East to VA Beach is maybe 275 miles give or take with maybe 13 million or so within 30 miles of the freeway along that stretch.
I am personally waiting for the 10 million CSA of Tampa and Orlando. That area is more connected than New York-Philadelphia and is coming in close on Baltimore-Washington D.C and because of the density of cities in central Florida that area is quickly becoming like the NE and from just north of Miami to just south of Jacksonville is easily 10 million people in 10 counties by 2030.
more connected? NYC and Philly are 47 miles at their closest city borders (not metros) and NJ has nearly 9 Million not in the citiies or burbs of PA and NY state, if you exclude the actual cities the area has nearly twice the 10 million people today. while they are growing are you serious on the connection and more developed?
the vast majority of the NJ population resides in the counties that lie directly between NYC and Philly
the SE and NW portions of NJ are very rural for the most part
The Orlando CSA can also add too, it can and eventually will add the Melbourne MSA (on the Atlantic Ocean side of Florida) when commuter threshold ceiling of 15% is broken. Present day population of Greater Orlando + Melbourne MSA is 3.5-3.6 million people. Through that addition due to CSA redefinition and natural increase, Greater Orlando can push past 5 million as well.
Which won't happen. The Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA is seeing it's own rebirth/growth after the NASA closures and is too far from the Orlando MSA (one hour/50+ miles) to ever exceed the 15% commute threshold. The only way Orlando will ever see that kind of growth is through areas to the NW in/around Lake County and more infill between Lakeland or Daytona Beach along the I-4 corridor. It's going to take a long time and is going to be well behind what the Tampa Bay area puts together with the inclusion of Sarasota/Bradenton and Lakeland.
Austin/San Antonio will be the next Dallas/Fort Worth "megametro" area. Together the metro areas of Austin & SA are almost 4.5 million.
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