State and City Population Effect from COVID-19

[NOVA_guy]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

I dont think people are leaving CA due to Covid-19. What a strange assertion imo.

Yeah, I think it's petty minimal honestly. Same for NYC.

And due to politics and issues in that area, places like Texas have their own issues dealing with COVID which is a whole different story from NYC and CA.

[C24L]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

With COVID raging through our country and changing how population will grow/change this year, how will population change this year throughout the country? Immigration will be basically flat (Maybe a net of 250k? If that?) which is a lifeline to growth in many major cities and states. In March/April we saw hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers and City Dwellers leave for the suburbs and the South.

How do you expect states to grow this year? Are you expecting a huge drop in population in hard hit cities and states, that have been unseen? Will some southern metropolitan areas see HUGE growth? What is your take on what will happen demographically?

I expect: (As of 8/1/2020)

Big Gainers
Florida: +250,000
North Carolina: +130,000
Georgia: +110,000
South Carolina: +75,000

Gainers
Texas: +200,000
New Hampshire: +15,000
Maine: +20,000

Losers
Connecticut: -40,000
Michigan: -50,000
California: -75,000
Massachusetts: -80,000
New Jersey: -150,000
New York: -250,000 (very variable, could be as much as 400k, could be no loss at all..)

How do you think big cities will take this hit this year?
2019 Population: 328.3 million
How about the country itself?
Net Migration 2020: +300,000
Natural Growth 2020: +650,000 (900,000 in 2019, COVID Deaths ~200,000, Lowered Fertility throughout the later part of the year, continued drop in births)
2020 est: 329.4 million

I think Texas as a whole could gain but my part of it in Midessa has been hit real hard by covid.....lots of people had to move away because a lot of the jobs went away but we are starting to recover.I think the growth rate in Houston will be continue to be slow for the time being if its growing at all.

[theTelecommuter]

From a recent Redfin article (July 23rd)

"More than 27% of Homebuyers Are Searching Out of Town, with Phoenix, Sacramento and Las Vegas the Most Popular Destinations"

"The most popular places for Redfin.com users to look to move into are typically inland areas with affordable housing, and the second quarter of 2020 was no exception. Phoenix, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Austin and Atlanta had the biggest net inflows of Redfin.com users in the second quarter. A net inflow means more people are looking to move in than leave, and a net outflow means more people are looking to leave than move in."

Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow

1. Phoenix
2. Sacramento
3. Las Vegas
4. Austin
5. Atlanta
6. Dallas
7. Tampa
8. Miami
9. Nashville
10. Charlotte

Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow

1. New York
2. San Francisco
3. Los Angeles
4. Washington, DC
5. Chicago
6. Seattle
7. Denver
8. Boston
9. Milwaukee
10. Rockford

More info in the article:
https://www.redfin.com/blog/q2-2020-...ration-trends/

[Boston Shudra]

^What about the pandemic would make someone more interested in moving to Las Vegas?

[Brian_of_Hull]

Not sure about internal migration, but I would expect to see immigration from overseas waaaay down, especially in the second half of the year. Would be interesting to see month by month comparisons of immigration stats for this year compared to last.

[theTelecommuter]

Originally Posted by Boston Shudra

^What about the pandemic would make someone more interested in moving to Las Vegas?

The "pandemic" doesn't necessarily drive everyone's life decisions. Despite the media brain washing / scare campaign, people still have jobs and are carrying on with life ... even if they have to wear a diaper on their face.